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NFL Playoff Picks, Best Bets, & Predictions Against the Spread for Divisional Round

With the NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs starting, we take a look at the betting lines to provide our best bets, predictions, and picks.

NFL Playoff Picks, Best Bets, & Predictions Against the Spread for Divisional Round
PITTSBURGH, PA - JANUARY 11: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Cleveland Browns and Myles Garrett #95 of the Cleveland Browns celebrate against the Pittsburgh Steelers on January 11, 2021 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

With four games being played over the span of the NFL Divisional Round, Pro Football Network has all your best bets, NFL picks, and playoff predictions based on the opening NFL betting lines available. Which teams will advance, and which teams will need to go back to the drawing board?

NFL Playoff Picks, Predictions for the Divisional Round: Opening betting lines, odds, and scores

Six teams have already been eliminated from the 2020-2021 NFL Playoffs, and another four will join them this week. With so much on the line, let’s take a look at the value in the betting lines and odds and bet accordingly.

Analysis of each game can be found below the table. The Divisional Round NFL odds below are from the William Hill Sportsbook.

This table is best viewed in landscape mode if you are using a mobile device.

TeamMoneylineSpreadOver/Under
Los Angeles Rams2856.5 (-110)Over 45.5 (-110)
Green Bay Packers-345-6.5 (-110)Under 45.5 (-110)
TeamMoneylineSpreadOver/Under
Baltimore Ravens1202.5 (-105)Over 49.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills-140-2.5 (-115)Under 49.5 (-110)
TeamMoneylineSpreadOver/Under
Cleveland Browns40010.0 (-110)Over 57.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs-500-10.0 (-110)Under 57.5 (-110)
TeamMoneylineSpreadOver/Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1503.0 (-105)Over 52 (-110)
New Orleans Saints-170-3.0 (-115)Under 52 (-110)

Saturday Playoff Games: Picks, predictions, and betting lines

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

The NFL picks for this Divisional Round tilt, according to betting volume, reflect the unstoppable force vs. immovable object debate.

The top seed in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers, will be taking on Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams in Lambeau on Saturday. While it may have seemed like the Packers were the obvious choice here, with the lines opening at a full touchdown in the Packers’ favor, that line has slowly come down. Now, sites offering online betting are laying only 6.5 if you think Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams will defeat the Rams.

Why did this number come down?

It seems as if bettors are torn when comparing the Packers’ offensive prowess and the Rams’ defensive strength. Last week, the Rams held Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense to only 20 total points, most of which were in garbage time. Can they possibly do the same against arguably the best QB/WR duo in the league?

Related | Divisional Round NFL Playoff Preview: Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers

The short answer is no. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 48 touchdown passes this season and finished the year on another level compared to Wilson. Green Bay put up 35 points against the Chicago Bears, where Seattle’s offense sputtered to finish the year. These two teams are in completely different situations.

Meanwhile, the Rams could be without their top defensive weapon in Aaron Donald, and their QB is still nursing a thumb injury. The Packers had the week off to prepare for this matchup and are at home, where it is expected to be quite cold. I can’t see a Los Angeles-based team coming into Lambeau and stealing a victory.

NFL Divisional Round playoff picks, predictions, & best bets: Green Bay 31, Los Angeles 17

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

The Baltimore Ravens will be traveling to Buffalo to take on the Bills Saturday night in what is promising to be an exciting game, with snow potential to boot. The Ravens seemed to have peaked at the right time and came back from a sizeable deficit to beat the Tennessee Titans last week. Meanwhile, the Bills continue to rely on Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs’ connection to drive their playoff hopes.

This matchup is strength against strength. Entering Saturday’s AFC Divisional Round matchup, the Ravens had blitzed a league-high 41 percent of the time. What will be interesting to keep an eye on is Allen and his success against the blitz. The MVP-worthy QB has thrown a league-high 19 touchdowns when facing pressure this season.

Related | Divisional Round NFL Playoff Preview: Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills

Baltimore’s seventh-ranked defense in the league (329.8 yards per game) will have their hands full against a Buffalo team ranked second in the league in total offense behind only the Kansas City Chiefs.

It is hard to go against Lamar Jackson right now with how well he is playing. However, the Bills are having their best season in what seems like decades. The old adage is that defense wins championships. Yet, in this matchup, it is the offense that will prove superior. The Divisional Round betting line is less than three, making the Buffalo Bills my best bet of the weekend.

NFL Divisional Round playoff picks, predictions, & best bets: Buffalo 28, Baltimore 24

Sunday Playoff Games: Picks, predictions, and betting lines

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)

The Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs matchup is the one game of the NFL Divisional Round with a spread higher than a touchdown. If you want to side with Kansas City, you need to lay a whopping 10 points! Is this high spread warranted? Or should one of your NFL playoff picks be against Patrick Mahomes this weekend?

It is tough to lay 10 points with a team that is 6-9-1 against the spread on the season. The Chiefs have been overvalued by the bookmakers this year. Are they making the same mistake in the Divisional Round?

Related | Divisional Round NFL Playoff Preview: Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I don’t think that is the case in this matchup. Yes, the Browns just shocked the world by putting up 48 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers during Wild Card Weekend. However, keep in mind that they also allowed Ben Roethlisberger to throw for 500 yards and four touchdowns. Now imagine what Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill will be able to accomplish against the Browns’ secondary.

Granted, the Browns should have their head coach back, as well as some reinforcements in the secondary, but their defense is still no match for Kansas City. Do I need to remind you how good Andy Reid’s record is after a bye week?

The Browns were a fun story in the 2020-2021 NFL Playoffs, but unfortunately, that story comes to an end in the Divisional Round against the favorites to win it all.

NFL Divisional Round playoff picks, predictions, & best bets: Kansas City 35, Cleveland 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Looking at the NFL Divisional Round betting lines, I was surprised to see the New Orleans Saints as field goal favorites against Tom Brady and the Tampa Buccaneers. Most casual football fans have probably heard that it is not easy to beat a team three times in the same season. Sunday’s game at New Orleans will mark the 70th time that a pair of teams will meet for a third time in the same season since the 1970 merger.

Related | Divisional Round NFL Playoff Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

48 of those 70 encounters, both teams had won at least one game each. There are only 21 instances where a team has won both regular season games heading into the playoffs. Of those 21 instances, the team that won the prior two meetings won their third matchup 14 times. So the truth is, it isn’t that hard to beat the same team three times in the same season.

What does that all mean in this battle of the nearly retired QBs? Nothing, because I think the Buccaneers get the win this time around.

Tampa Bay is hitting on all cylinders right now, and they just beat the best defense in the NFL. Playoff Tom Brady is not the same as regular season Tom Brady. Yes, the Saints are a good football team. However, give me Brady, Brown, Evans, and Godwin over Brees, Thomas, and some average guys.

NFL Divisional Round picks, predictions, and betting lines: Tampa Bay 24, New Orleans 21

 

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