Through three weeks, we are getting a better sample size to help us make more informed decisions for betting on NFL player props. With that in mind, we have a 12-game slate today after the London game before Sunday Night Football, and our betting team has their favorite NFL player props for today’s games.
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Week 4 NFL Player Props to Target
Brian Robinson Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: The biggest weakness for this Eagles team a year ago was their run defense, but that has been the complete opposite this season. Through three weeks, they’re the 5th-best team in success rate in stopping the run, and they haven’t allowed any running back to go for at least 40 rushing yards so far.
When they lost to Washington last season, Brian Robinson had 86 rushing yards on 26 carries. Robinson kept having his way in short-yardage situations, as the Commanders’ offense kept bleeding the clock, keeping the Eagles’ offense off the field.
The Eagles didn’t have Jordan Davis for that game, but in his second year, he is a big reason why they’re so improved in stopping the run. The game script is in our favor here as well, as the Eagles are heavy home favorites.
Zay Flowers Under 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: Zay Flowers has been heavily involved in the Ravens’ passing offense this season, but he is rarely targeted downfield. So far this season, he has the 6th-lowest average depth of target (aDOT) among all wide receivers with at least 15 targets.
Take away a 52-yard catch against the Bengals; he is averaging 45 receiving yards per game and 6.8 yards per catch. This week, he is facing a Browns team that has been by far the best defense this season. Through three weeks, the Browns have only allowed 297 yards to wide receivers, the best in the NFL, and this includes a 71-yard TD they allowed to George Pickens.
Joe Mixon Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-105 at DraftKings)
Katz: Death. Taxes. Running back rushing yards unders against the Titans. Joe Mixon is averaging just 4.0 yards per carry this season. He’s looked fine but hasn’t had anywhere to run.
Now, he gets the best run defense in the NFL. The Titans are allowing just 2.7 yards per carry and have allowed a total of 156 rushing yards through three games. Expect a pass-heavy game plan from the Bengals against the Titans’ pass-funnel defense. Look for Mixon to finish with something like 14 carries for 42 yards.
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-102 at FanDuel)
Katz: This one piggybacks off the Mixon prop. If the Bengals are to score any points this week, they will likely be through the air. In 16 games last season, Joe Burrow threw for multiple touchdowns in 11 of them.
Burrow got in multiple full practices this week. He said his calf is doing much better after escaping last week’s game with no setbacks. Look for him to be even more comfortable this week, and find both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in the end zone this week.
Javonte Williams Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Katz: Death. Taxes. Running back rushing yards over against the Bears. In Week 2, Rachaad White ran for 73 yards on 17 carries. Last week, Isiah Pacheco recorded 62 yards on 15 carries, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire tallied 55 yards on 15 carries.
Javonte Williams has struggled to get going because the Broncos can’t win any games. But he looks healthy, and he is running with power. The Broncos are favored in this one. I’m feeling a Williams breakout game.
Chase Claypool Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Every season, there are not-so-great wide receivers I like to pick on. This year’s guy is Chase Claypool. He’s gone under this number in two out of three games. Conveniently, the books didn’t give us a line on Claypool’s yards in Week 2, the one week he went over.
Claypool has had some choice words for Bears coaches, and there have been questions about his work ethic. I will fade him until he gives me a reason not to.
Roschon Johnson Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-113 at Caesars)
Katz: Roschon Johnson has gone over his rushing yards line two weeks in a row. Let’s make it three.
I don’t think the books are reacting enough to Johnson’s steady increase in usage.
Roschon Johnson’s RB opportunity share by week:
Week 1 – 35.3%
Week 2 – 37.5%
Week 3 – 52.6% 👀
Week 4 vs. DEN – ❔
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) September 27, 2023
His line is being set as if he’s still the clear backup to Khalil Herbert. This could be the week he flips the backfield. It also may not matter against a Broncos run defense allowing 6.1 ypc. Johnson only needs a handful of carries to have a shot to hit this. If he sees 8-10, which is firmly in his range of outcomes, he should sail past this number.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Katz: Thankfully for everyone on the Patriots, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s knee has not exploded. But he’s a shell of his former self.
Smith-Schuster has surpassed 30 receiving yards just once this season, back in Week 1. Since then, he’s seen his snap share go up, but his target share go down. JuJu’s targets went from seven to six to three. Last week, he ran a season-low 18 routes.
Smith-Schuster is the fifth option in this passing game behind DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and Rhamondre Stevenson. He’s not explosive and no longer capable of splash plays. As we saw in Week 2, he’s capable of racing up five receptions and still not getting to 30 yards. Against an angry Cowboys defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes catchless.
Braxton Berrios Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on BetMGM)
This line is curiously low for a guy who has gone over this number in all three games this season. Perhaps it’s because Jaylen Waddle is returning. He and Tyreek Hill are locked in as the top two targets.
However, River Cracraft and Erik Ezukanma are both out. Braxton Berrios is the clear WR3. With those two out, he could set a season-high in routes run.
As we’ve seen over the first three games, he only needs two catches to hit this number. He could easily catch 3-4 balls, in which case he should easily sail over.
Nelson Agholor Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-120 at DraftKings)
This is another curiously low line. Nelson Agholor has sailed over this number for two straight weeks. Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman are out, leaving Agholor as the WR2 behind Zay Flowers.
Agholor ran 33 routes per week. He’s seen 10 targets over the past two games. He should be running a route on nearly every Lamar Jackson dropback this week. I think we get there in the first half.