NFL Player Props Week 2: Sunday’s Picks Include Drake London and Courtland Sutton

Heading into Week 2 of the NFL season, here are our top NFL player prop bets for the week, including action on Drake London and Courtland Sutton.

There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is this more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for Week 2.

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Week 2 NFL Player Props To Target

All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.). For example, if your unit is $100, a one-unit bet at -120 would be $120 to win $100. A one-unit bet at +120 would be $100 to win $120.

It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news. I will always be transparent about three aspects of each pick: what line I bet it at, the line at the time I wrote this, and at what price I’d no longer be interested.

Every week, I will update my record in this section here. Last week, we went 10-9, -0.25 units. Including Thursday plays, which did not go well, we are now 10-12, -2.6 units. Had I not overthought the Jaylen Warren rush attempts play last week and stuck to my guns, we would’ve been in the positive.

Last season, the first couple of weeks were a feeling-out period, and then I started to roll. No complaints being essentially even.

I will be including Thursday Night Football props in my record. You can find those picks in advance in the weekly TNF betting article featuring all of our betting analysts. To get my weekly NFL prop bets as soon as I place my bets, you can ask me for them in the official PFN Discord or by following me on Pikkit @KatzFF.

Desmond Ridder Under 188.5 Passing Yards -115 (BetMGM)

Last week, Desmond Ridder completed 15 of 18 passes for 115 yards. At the end of the first quarter, you, yes you right there sitting on your couch, had more passing yards than Ridder.

MORE: NFL Survivor Picks Week 2

Arthur Smith has no interest in calling pass plays. The Falcons are a toss-up to win this game. They may not, but game script is unlikely to get away from them. That will enable them to continue not calling pass plays. It will take a fluke slash play to for this to lose. Just like last week, we go under.

  • My line
    188.5 -115 (BetMGM)
  • Current line
    186.5 -115 (DraftKings)
  • Lowest I’d go

Drake London Under 50.5 Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)

If we get burned for chasing what happened last week, so be it. Drake London had zero yards last week. Zero. On a single target. Forgive me for wondering how he’s supposed to get to 50 this week.

  • My line
    50.5 -115 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    45.5 -115 (DraftKings)
  • Lowest I’d go

Russell Wilson Under 226.5 Passing Yards -115 (BetMGM)

Last year, Russell Wilson looked cooked. This year, there was some hope that Sean Payton could revive him. After Week 1, it looks like Wilson is, in fact, cooked.

Wilson attempted a healthy 34 passes last week, but only managed to amass 177 yards on 27 completions. That’s just 5.2 yards per attempt. Everything he threw was short.

Even with Jerry Jeudy back this week, I don’t anticipate Wilson suddenly pushing the ball downfield. Furthermore, a winnable matchup against the Commanders is not going to force Wilson into negative game script.

  • My line
    226.5 -115 (BetMGM)
  • Current line
    225.5 -115 (DraftKings)
  • Lowest I’d go

Courtland Sutton Under 56.5 Receiving Yards -110 (BetMGM)

I don’t like the fact that I’ve essentially doubled down twice on this week’s card. There’s certainly a world where Ridder and Wilson go over, and both of their WR1s also go over, costing us four plays. Let’s hope that world isn’t the one we live in.

Sutton was the clear WR1 for the Broncos last week, but only managed 32 yards four catches. All four of them came on the same drive at the end of the first half.

This line opened at 57.5. I tried to bet it immediately, and it moved to 56.5 while I was betting it. So, this is the number I got. Shortly thereafter, it dropped even more. The reason? Jeudy is back. I expect Sutton to fade even further into the background.

  • My line
    56.5 -110 (BetMGM)
  • Current line
    50.5 -120 (DraftKings)
  • Lowest I’d go

Brian Robinson Longest Rush Under 12.5 Yards -110 (DraftKings)

Last week, Brian Robinson firmly established himself as the clear lead back ahead of Antonio Gibson. As a result, I am confident he is going to see considerable volume as long as the game script doesn’t get away from the Commanders, which I don’t think it will. That makes me hesitant to take the under on his rushing yardage total.

But Robinson is not a good runner. So, we want to fade him against a strong Broncos run defense. The way to do that is his longest rush.

Last week, Robinson carried the ball 19 times. Yet, his longest rush was only seven yards. Of course, any singular carry can end up being really well-blocked and go for a big gain. If that happens, we lose. But this is a stout run defense, they should limit Robinson to minimal gains on his 15+ carries.

  • My line
    12.5 -110 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    12.5 -115 (DraftKings)
  • Highest price I’d pay

Sam LaPorta Over 3.5 Receptions +110 (DraftKings)

I really like Sam LaPorta this week. In his NFL debut, LaPorta played 85% of the snaps and ran 20 routes. He saw a healthy 25% targets per route run rate. LaPorta caught all five of his targets, but with a 4.0 aDOT, he only managed 39 receiving yards.

The Seahawks and Lions should be a high-scoring game. I expect LaPorta to run at least as many routes as last week. Due to his usage, I’m a little worried about the efficiency, so that’s why we’re going with his receptions over instead of yards.

  • My line
    3.5 +110 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    3.5 +112 (FanDuel)
  • Highest price I’d pay

Bijan Robinson Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards -120 (DraftKings)

I have no idea when Arthur Smith is going to turn this backfield over to the guy they spent the eighth overall pick on. Maybe never. After all, this is the same team that spent two high first-round picks on Drake London and Kyle Pitts, only to have them run wind sprints for 60 minutes each week.

What I know is Bijan Robinson is really, really good at football. He will get at least 10-12 carries. Odds are, one of them will go for 15+ yards.

  • My line
    14.5 -120 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    14.5 -114 (FanDuel)
  • Highest price I’d pay

Dalvin Cook Longest Rush Under 11.5 Yards -125 (DraftKings)

I do not like laying -125 on a bet that probably wins only about 60% of the time. But this one jumped out at me.

Dalvin Cook looked…cooked last week. I thought he had some juice left, but it was nowhere to be seen against the Bills last week. He carried the ball 13 times for 33 yards, getting what was blocked, and nothing more. He evaded one tackle the entire game. His longest rush was 10 yards. If he can rip off one longer than 10 against the best defense in football, more power to him.

  • My line
    11.5 -125 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
  • Highest price I’d pay

Najee Harris Under 49.5 Rushing Yards -110 (BetMGM)

Perhaps this is overreacting to last week, where the Steelers’ offense just looked completely inept. They looked like a team that just hadn’t really played in months…except Mike Tomlin had the starters out there for all three preseason games. I guess it is just unnecessarily putting players at risk and doesn’t help.

It was admittedly about as tough a matchup as you could ask for against the 49ers. Harris carried the ball six times for 31 yards. That may look decent, but it’s important to realize he had a 24-yard carry in there.

This week, Harris should see more volume, but he’s still in a near-even timeshare with Jaylen Warren. Something like 13 carries for 39 yards sounds perfect for Harris this week.

  • My line
    49.5 -110 (BetMGM)
  • Current line
    50.5 -120 (BetMGM)
  • Lowest I’d go

Bonus Anytime Touchdown Props

Eventually, anytime touchdown props will become unbettable. It happens every season. The books figure out the NFL landscape and nerf all the lines. But early in the season, there can be considerable value.

These bets are not included in my official record, but I will track them separately so everyone knows how they’re doing. Here’s what we’ve got for Week 2.

2023 Record: 1-2, -0.17 units

  • Christian Kirk +215 (DraftKings)
  • Rachaad White +155 (DraftKings)
  • Saquon Barkley +100 (DraftKings)
  • Nick Chubb +125 (FanDuel)

Long Shot Props

Every week, this section will include true long shots. These are bets that we do not really expect to hit but ones where the odds appear to be longer than they should be. These bets are also not included in my official record, and I will not be tracking them.

  • Rashod Bateman first Ravens TD +1200 (DraftKings)
  • DK Metcalf first TD +1200 (DraftKings)
  • Darren Waller first TD +1200 (DraftKings)
  • Keenan Allen first TD +950 (DraftKings)
  • Evan Engram first Jaguars TD +850 (DraftKings)

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