The NFL picks market is full of small sample sizes. Often, we see the majority of NFL bettors decide their picks against the spread based on what they saw the previous week. Seeing as how the NFL is riddled with small samples, it’s easy to fall prey to recency bias. So how can we distance ourselves from the pack and make smart wagers? By determining which teams might have gotten lucky by using regression to the mean in some statistical areas. I’ll attempt to pinpoint teams who are worth a play and those who are worth a fade going forward.
Week 5 was another less than profitable week for myself. Thankfully the rest of the betting crew carried us to an overall profitable week, as described in the Sheep Report. Let’s see what I got wrong and if we can learn anything from my losses.
Week 5 NFL Picks Recap
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m not sure I regret this bet too much. The New Orleans Saints opened at a 6.5 point favorite against the spread, so the steam was clearly on the Tampa Bay side. Despite that, we still got 0.5 points of closing line value, which is worth more, considering it was over three. I went into the game thinking the Teddy Bridgewater led Saints were not as good as the Buccaneers. Bridgewater proved me wrong. What we learned is the Tampa Bay secondary is atrocious. Bridgewater was averaging 5.2 intended air yards on his throws before this contest, yet he beat them deep several times.
This Saints team is vastly outperforming their peripherals. Their yards per play (ypp) rankings (12th in offense, 22nd in defense, 4-1 record) would have you think they’re overrated. You can also say it is impressive they are winning games without Drew Brees. They might be the best team in the league when Brees returns from injury. I would also rank Sean Payton at or near the top in terms of coach of the year candidates. They might be a team I stay away from in the meantime as I have no confident read on them.
Green Bay Packers/Dallas Cowboys Under
I’ll be honest; I’m not sure what went wrong here. The Packers were missing their best playmaker in Davante Adams, while the Cowboys were missing their most valuable player in Tyron Smith. Neither team jumped off the board from a pace standpoint, either. We did get small closing line value with the total closing at 46.5 compared to our number of 47.
So what went wrong with this Week 5 NFL pick? The game was played in a dome, which is historically friendly to offenses. The Za’Darius Smith injury also seemed to ease the pressure Dak Prescott was receiving. I’ll be more aware of taking the under in dome games from here on out. I can’t say I wouldn’t bet this again, however.
Monday Night Football Score Props
My “to score” props did not hit, but I don’t regret my process. Jarvis Landry and George Kittle were due for touchdown regression based on their yardage totals, while Deebo Samuel saw the most snaps and had the highest target share amongst the San Francisco 49ers wide receivers entering this game. Kittle scored, but the rest failed to find pay dirt.
In fairness to me, I did not expect the Cleveland Browns to quit mid-way through the 3rd quarter, which killed Landry’s chances. From now on, we know to tread lightly with 49ers receiver props as an NFL pick, as Kyle Shanahan wants to emphasize running the ball. The snap share among the WR group is a mess, as well. At least I nailed my spread handicap.
Week 6
Net YPP
I put a lot of weight into net ypp data for my weekly NFL Picks. Using the formula I found from an article written by Adam Chernoff, we can use net ypp to predict point spreads in the NFL. It went 9-4 against the spread in Week 4 and 8-6-1 in Week 5. You never take one aspect of a handicap and bet it blindly. If you had, however, you would be up approximately five units the past two weeks. For Week 6, there are several extremely intriguing spreads.
Philadelphia Eagles
I jumped on the Eagles spread early in the week, releasing the play on the PFN All Access twitter account (@PFN365AA). At first glance, I saw a similar situation with the Eagles and Packers in week 4. I think the Eagles are a better team than the Minnesota Vikings, so I thought getting a full three with the better team was the place to be.
Well, according to the net ypp data I use, that is dead wrong. The Eagles haven’t looked great from an overall ypp perspective week to week. Overall they rank 26th in offensive ypp and 12th in defensive ypp. I think the offensives numbers are a tad skewed due to their lackluster effort against the New York Jets in Week 5. The offense has also dealt with injuries to key players, including the debacle that was the Sunday night game in Atlanta.
The Vikings have had two lopsided performances against the Packers and New York Giants, which have inflated their season-long ypp numbers. They outgained both teams by over four ypp in those contests, causing them to rank third. That said, this team is better than most people think. The ire of Kirk Cousins is what turns the public away from the Vikings.
I’m not going to go with the lazy analysis of “Cousins can’t beat good teams.” This is a good matchup for their passing attack if they can keep Cousins upright. There is a significant mismatch on the interior with Fletcher Cox, but on the whole, the Eagles’ defensive line ranks just 19th in Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate while the Vikings offensive line ranks 24th. Cousins will have opportunities to find Diggs and Thielen downfield. The question is, can he execute?
The Eagles defensive line is first in adjusted line yards, but the Vikings offensive line ranks sixth. Dalvin Cook will have some success on the ground, but it will be tough sledding for sure. Overall, I would call the matchups in the trenches a wash.
We are getting the better quarterback and (what I believe to be) the better head coach in Doug Pederson. I think the Eagles have underperformed thus far relative to their talent. The spread reflects that, however, so there isn’t much value to be had. That said, I can hang my hat on getting points and a “plus” number on the money line with the better QB and head coach.
I gave out the Eagles earlier in the week, so they are an official play. That said, if you have not hopped on yet and have some trepidation, I don’t blame you.
Pick: Eagles +3, (-115) 1U, PHI ML +125 1U
Arizona Cardinals/Atlanta Falcons
The second pick I gave out earlier in the week was the over in Arizona. The number opened at 47 and has skyrocketed past 50. Honestly, I don’t think 52 is high enough. Atlanta is 6th in overall pace and 5th in situation neutral pace, while Arizona is second in both regards.
Arizona is 27th in pass defense DVOA while Atlanta ranks 30th. Neither team can rush the passer either (ARZ/ATL rank 32nd/18th in adjusted sack rate, respectively). The game will be played in a dome, and to top all of it off, Arizona is due for some positive touchdown regression.
This might be the easiest over we will see all year. We are getting the worst of the number, but I don’t care. I might be on some player props as well once they come out, so check back for those.
Pick: ATL/ARZ O 52 (-110) 2U
As for the rest of the card, here is what’s sticking out to me.
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Cleveland Browns
I live by the mantra that nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems. Cleveland looked about as bad as a team could look in primetime. I highlighted the extreme mismatch in the trenches in my Week 5 picks article, so I can’t say I’m surprised that is how the game played out. I didn’t expect them to quit midway through the 3rd quarter, however.
The Seattle Seahawks do not possess near the quality of pass rush the 49ers do. While San Francisco was able to live in Cleveland’s backfield, I expect the Browns offensive line (26th in adjusted sack rate) to hold its own against what is a mediocre defensive line Seattle (25th in adjusted sack rate).
With extra time in the pocket, Baker Mayfield should be able to connect with Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham and sustain drives. Both receivers have underperformed in the touchdown department relative to their yardage total, so we may be looking at a “to score” prop once odds come out.
While I like Cleveland to bounce back at home coming off an embarrassing loss on Monday night, I’m not rushing to the window to bet against Russell Wilson. While net ypp has the Browns as a small spread value as a home underdog, we aren’t getting the critical number of three. I would rather hold out for the three but will put a small wager on the money line. If we don’t get three, I will settle for (+2.5) as a Week 6 NFL pick.
What I do want to do is throw them in a teaser. As 2.5 point underdogs, teasing them, six points goes through both key numbers in three and seven.
**EDIT**
I have no faith in this number getting to three. Lock your teasers in now incase this game drops to a “PICK.” I’m suggesting putting a full unit on the money line. Seattle could be without two starting offensive linemen, while the Browns will welcome back Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams. I really like this spot for Cleveland, and expect them to rebound after the Monday night debacle.
Pick: Browns ML (+115) 1U
6 pt teaser (2nd leg below)
Dallas Cowboys
If you just watched the Cowboys games each week, you would probably conclude that they beat up on crappy opponents and aren’t good enough to defeat a quality opponent. I don’t necessarily agree with that.
Dallas outgained both Green Bay and New Orleans in ypp but were done in by turnovers. Their latest performance was especially impressive, considering they were without two-time All-Pro Tyron Smith. Michael Gallup returned and provided a real boost to the passing attack. Prescott should enjoy a clean pocket as well, regardless of the status of La’el Collins.
You have to throw almost all data regarding the Jets out the window. This team has been dead since Sam Darnold contracted “mono” after Week 1. Despite that, I still think this is a bad team. Even if you aren’t a believer in the Cowboys, what have they done this year? Beat bad teams.
Dallas is the second leg of my teaser. I’m teasing them six points against the spread with the Browns against Seattle.
Pick: Two team 6 point teaser DAL (-1.5), CLE (+8.5) 1.5U (-120)
Pittsburg Steelers/Los Angeles Chargers
I think the under is a pretty strong play here. The Chargers are 29th in total pace and 32nd in situation neutral pace. Pittsburgh is league average in both regards.
The Pittsburgh front should be able to harass Philip Rivers and stall several drives. Even though Melvin Ingram hasn’t practiced this week, the Chargers still have Joey Bosa. Mike Tomlin has not shown they want to push the ball downfield with Mason Rudolph.
This just profiles as an extremely slow, grind it out game between both teams. I like the under here for one unit.
Pick: PITT/LAC U 41 (-110) 1U
Chiefs
The look-ahead line for this game was Chiefs (-8.5). After getting dominated on Sunday night football, the spread has dropped four points in favor of the Houston Texans. After the Texans dropped over 50 points on the hapless Falcons, it’s easy to see why this spread moved the way it has. That doesn’t mean I agree with it. The Chief’s offense became extremely limited when Patrick Mahomes hurt his ankle in the middle of the game. I’m not taking anything away from the Colts, but Mahomes not being able to move derailed the offense.
Well, Mahomes has been a full participant in practice all week, so I don’t see any reason to think he’ll be limited against the Houston defense. Sammy Watkins is expected to be out, but he sucks anyways. Tyreek Hill has been a limited participant in practice all week and is officially listed as questionable for Sunday. Both starters on the left side of the line are expected to miss the game, so that is concerning for Chiefs backers.
The most important factor here is Mahomes. If he is healthy this line is too short. I don’t care who he’s throwing to, I don’t care who is blocking for him. A healthy Mahomes and Andy Reid should be about six-point favorites at home against Bill O’Brien and Deshaun Watson. I love Watson myself, but his head coach not so much. Net ypp agrees with me, as is has the Chiefs as a (-3) point favorite on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage.
I think (-4) is too short. The Chiefs are one of my favorite NFL picks for Week 6. They’re in a different class than the Texans, and everyone will be reminded of that after Sunday.
Pick: Chiefs (-4.5), (-105) 1U
Summary
That’s it for this week. Good luck, and let’s hope we’re profitable again. Be sure to follow the PFN All-Access Twitter account (@PFN365AA) for live updates, Ben Rolfe’s totals article, Chris Smith’s article, Jason Sarney’s player props article and listen to the Against the Spread podcast with Jason Sarney and Ryan Gosling for more NFL picks!
James Aguirre is a writer for PFN covering NFL betting and Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter @PFN_James.
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