NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert, and Other Excitement

Mahomes vs. Herbert. Dak vs. Cousins. Lamar vs. . . . Baker. Here are the final Week 11 predictions, including point spread and moneyline.

Here’s a final look at our NFL Week 11 predictions and picks for the remaining 13 games, with the Buccaneers, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Seahawks on byes. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks

Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.

What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.

With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Chicago Bears

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

Earlier this week, I wrote that the Falcons’ three-point point spread advantage was a “curious betting line.” Of course, there are great reasons why. But I respectfully disagree with them. At worst, Justin Fields should keep this one close. At best, he’ll dominate Atlanta’s porous defense.

Against-the-spread prediction: Bears
Moneyline winner: Bears

Buffalo Bills (-8.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

A relocation to neutral Detroit. A Super Bowl contender trying to stave off a third straight loss. And a once-promising opponent on the verge of going 3-7. If Buffalo can’t win this one by 12+, I don’t see them reaching the AFC title game.

Against-the-spread prediction: Bills
Moneyline winner: Bills

Indianapolis Colts (+7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

This betting line was 9.5 points heading into Monday Night Football. Once the world witnessed how to beat the Eagles, the line magically dropped. I’m still comfortable picking Indy to cover, largely because I’m banking on a monster performance from Jonathan Taylor in a bid to replicate Washington’s winning strategy.

Against-the-spread prediction: Colts
Moneyline winner: Eagles

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New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. New York Jets

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

When these teams last met in Week 8, the 3-4 Patriots had just been embarrassed by the Bears at home on Monday Night Football. They proceeded to shut down the Breece Hall-less Jets backfield, forcing Zach Wilson to try to win through the air. Three interceptions later, Wilson came up short.

I expect a similar approach in this one, with New York’s impressive defense bending and eventually breaking against Rhamondre Stevenson and perhaps a few more Nick Folk field goals. Maybe not the prettiest game, but another impressive win for a Patriots unit gearing up for make-or-break matchups against the Vikings and Bills.

Against-the-spread prediction: Patriots
Moneyline winner: Patriots

New Orleans Saints (-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

Before Cooper Kupp’s diagnosis, the Saints were three-point favorites. Then it jumped to 4.5 on Wednesday before trickling down to 3 again. Good news for us (I hope), as the Saints should win by at least six against the depleted Super Bowl champs. For New Orleans’ sake, let’s hope Andy Dalton bounces back — or, more likely, that Jameis Winston enters to save the day.

Against-the-spread prediction: Saints
Moneyline winner: Saints

New York Giants (-3) vs. Detroit Lions

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

On Monday, I wrote, “I’m going to hedge on this one. If the line moves to 2.5, I might not.”

At the time, the line was 3.5. This is truly a tough game to assess. I’m still hedging, largely because I don’t trust the Giants to put this game out of reach, and I’m only about 60% confident that they’ll win.

Against-the-spread prediction: Lions
Moneyline winner: Giants

Baltimore Ravens (-13) vs. Carolina Panthers

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

Amazingly, this line jumped 1.5 points with news that Baker Mayfield would return to the starting lineup. Coincidence? Probably not. That said, assuming Baltimore has no answer for D’Onta Foreman, Carolina probably can stay within 13 points.

Against-the-spread prediction: Panthers
Moneyline winner: Ravens

Houston Texans (+3) vs. Washington Commanders

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

The Commanders tacked on another half-point as favorites after their upset win over the Eagles. Momentum does funny things to betting lines.

I’m not at all sold on Washington’s backfield, and with Houston wisely signing Eno Benjamin, the Texans should have enough firepower — led by Dameon Pierce, of course — to not only cover but also win. Remember, these Texans haven’t been blown out all year, and they’ve led in four fourth quarters.

Against-the-spread prediction: Texans
Moneyline winner: Texans

Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET

What a mess. I’ve bet on Denver too much this year, continuing to believe that Russell Wilson will turn the corner. He hasn’t. He probably won’t until 2023 (one would hope).

This is a battle between an elite defense with a dysfunctional offense and a capable offense with a dysfunctional defense. The unstoppable force versus the immovable object. Or rather, the easily stopped force versus the easily movable object.

I’ll bet on offense in this rough contest.

Against-the-spread prediction: Raiders
Moneyline winner: Raiders

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Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET

Same betting line all week. The Vikings at home seem more compelling than the Cowboys on the road. That’s overly simplistic, and it also reflects my confidence in Minnesota’s sterling offense to keep the pressure on Dallas all game.

Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
Moneyline winner: Vikings

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET

The Steelers were five-point underdogs. Now it’s down to four. I’m not changing my projection, which is a 2-5 point Bengals win. A rejuvenated Najee Harris helps because Pittsburgh needs to move the ball effectively on the ground if they have any chance of slowing Cincy.

Against-the-spread prediction: Steelers
Moneyline winner: Bengals

Los Angeles Chargers (+5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are poised to return for this must-win game. As a result, the line has dropped from seven points to five. The Chargers will throw everything at the Chiefs. Expecting a one-possession game, meaning I’m switching to the Chargers covering.

Against-the-spread prediction: Chargers
Moneyline winner: Chiefs

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Arizona Cardinals (+8) vs. San Francisco 49ers

  • Date: Monday, Nov. 21
  • Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET

What is the Cardinals’ path to victory? They have to hope San Francisco falters on offense and/or defense. Doable? Depends whether the very questionable Kyler Murray starts.

Arizona’s defensive struggles reinforce the strong possibility that the Niners’ offense will continue to click. I’m still banking on an eight-plus-point victory.

Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
Moneyline winner: 49ers

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