Here’s a final look at our NFL Week 13 picks against the spread, as well as moneylines, for the remaining 14 games. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds as of Friday afternoon.
NFL Week 13 Picks
Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our final assessments of how each game might proceed.
Atlanta Falcons (-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Since Week 4, Marcus Mariota has surpassed 186 passing yards only once. The Falcons have given up 19 more points than they’ve scored. With one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses in years, this team wins or loses based on its backfield.
The opposing Steelers have one of the league’s top run defenses, yielding only 4.0 yards per carry. I believe Pittsburgh is easily the better team and is a good bet to win by 5+ points.
Against-the-spread prediction: Steelers
Moneyline winner: Steelers
Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Aaron Rodgers is expected to play. Justin Fields appears hopeful. With apologies to Jordan Love and Trevor Siemian, this could be a far more interesting battle than how it looked on Monday when the Bears were merely 2.5-point underdogs.
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Assuming these playing trends hold, I’m still comfortable taking Chicago with the points against an up-and-down Green Bay franchise.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bears
Moneyline winner: Bears
Detroit Lions (-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Two evenly matched teams on the rise ahead of 2023. Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence realistically could combine for 550+ passing yards — although the Lions’ anemic run defense (5.2 yards per carry) might lead the Jags to feed not only a seemingly returning Travis Etienne Jr., but also JaMycal Hasty.
I expect this game to remain competitive throughout. In the end, Etienne might be the X-factor. If he’s at all tentative after getting hurt last week, advantage Detroit.
Against-the-spread prediction: Lions
Moneyline winner: Lions
Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. New York Jets
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
In Mike White’s first appearance last season, we appeared headed toward a QB controversy. A week later, the controversy was a distant memory.
MORE: Jets vs. Vikings Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Week 13
I’m not putting a lot of stock in White’s impressive 2022 debut against Chicago, which included a would-be interception that Garrett Wilson converted into a deep touchdown. Assuming White earns another start, this road matchup against Minnesota spells trouble for one of the league’s least mobile quarterbacks.
Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
Moneyline winner: Vikings
New York Giants (+2.5) vs. Washington Commanders
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
The Giants were only one-point underdogs on Monday. Both teams excel with respect to offensive time of possession and moving the ball on the ground. Given the point-spread shift and Washington’s likely conservative approach against a New York defense surrendering the second-most yards per carry, I’ll angle toward the Giants in what has become a must-win game to end their perilous slide.
Against-the-spread prediction: Giants
Moneyline winner: Giants
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
A 6.5-point spread earlier this week has shrunk by two points. While Philly’s offense took a hit with the loss of Dallas Goedert, and injuries on the defensive side have undercut their claim to unquestioned eliteness, the Eagles should be able to overpower the Titans through the air, where Tennessee has given up the league’s fourth-most yards.
Against-the-spread prediction: Eagles
Moneyline winner: Eagles
Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) vs. Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
On Monday, I wrote, “I believe this line will reach double digits by Friday, and frankly, I’d be shocked if the Ravens win by less than two touchdowns.”
Well, it only went from -7 to -9.5. As a result, I’m still bullish about Baltimore crushing expectations against a mostly broken Denver offense and — as the lower-end Panthers demonstrated last week — a beatable defense.
Against-the-spread prediction: Ravens
Moneyline winner: Ravens
Houston Texans (+7) vs. Cleveland Browns
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
After watching Miami dismantle Houston, we might envision Cleveland doing the same — especially in Deshaun Watson’s return to the field.
Fortunately for the Browns, they can win comfortably by simply running the offense through Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. But we should expect some fireworks from Watson, thanks to the Browns’ best receiving corps in (perhaps) decades.
Against-the-spread prediction: Browns
Moneyline winner: Browns
Los Angeles Rams (+7) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET
In one of the more dramatic point-spread shifts this season, the Rams were 3.5-point underdogs only a few days ago. While I often wince betting on road teams to win by a touchdown or more, exceptions can be made.
LA is on a trajectory to have the worst record the year after a Super Bowl victory, while Seattle commands enough offensive firepower to keep pace at worst, and perhaps win in a blowout.
The Seahawks are fifth-best in the league in turnover differential. The Rams are the third worst. That might prove to be the difference in this one.
Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers (-4) vs. Miami Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET
No respect for Miami? Or maybe the line setters understand that the Dolphins’ beatable defense might play right into San Francisco’s hands. The Niners’ run-and-pass defenses are exceptional.
MORE: The Kyle Shanahan-Mike McDaniel Origin Story
Surely, the Fins will get 14+. But I don’t see them slowing down a full-strength unit led by one of the league’s top backfields and most explosive (with all apologies to the Dolphins) receiving corps.
Even with Christian McCaffrey battling a knee issue, and despite the absence of Elijah Mitchell, there’s enough depth here to rack up 100+ rushing yards and tire out Miami’s D.
Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
Moneyline winner: 49ers
Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Don’t mess with Patrick Mahomes. I did this summer, believing he’d regress without Tyreek Hill. How wrong I was. Mahomes is locked in and should score 3+ TDs against Cincy.
And yet . . . in Week 17 last season, Ja’Marr Chase went off for 10 catches, 266 yards, and three touchdowns. Assuming he’s good to go, Chase is the X-factor in this contest, and I’m comfortable taking the home team to win and establish a growing claim as “the team to beat” in the AFC.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals
Las Vegas Raiders (-1) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
A dramatic flip since Monday, when Josh Jacobs seemed questionable and the Raiders were three-point underdogs. At that point, I urged readers to take Vegas to cover and win. Now that they’re favorites, nothing’s changed.
These are two teams that struggle to contain offenses, and two offenses capable of crushing defenses. Davante Adams and Mack Hollins could combine for 200 yards, while Austin Ekeler could do that all on his own.
Perhaps the last team with the ball with more than a minute remaining will win. I’m betting the home team can keep pace at minimum, and a victory seems like a better-than 50/50 bet.
Against-the-spread prediction: Raiders
Moneyline winner: Raiders
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 4
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
The point spread has jumped from nine to 10.5 since the Colts played on Monday. Not a surprise. Jonathan Taylor has lost a fumble in three of his last six outings, and Matt Ryan continues to struggle even when operating conservatively. It’s a bad combination in a contest that assuredly will bury their scant playoff hopes.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cowboys
Moneyline winner: Cowboys
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
- Date: Monday, Dec. 5
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
With Marshon Lattimore trending in the right direction, the point spread has shifted from 6.5 a few days ago. Coincidence? Probably not. Mike Evans has a history of muted performances against Lattimore.
That said, his return might be overblown, particularly if he’s on a snap count. For all of Tampa Bay’s struggles, they have enough personnel — including future star Rachaad White — to handle a Saints offense that lacks the depth (beyond Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave) to scheme effectively against a defense that’s given up only three rushing scores to opposing RBs.
Against-the-spread prediction: Buccaneers
Moneyline winner: Buccaneers
