After the Micah Parsons blockbuster trade happened, my immediate thought was, “Wow. The NFC North is pretty easily the best division in football.” If I’m being honest, I thought this before, but with the Green Bay Packers getting Parsons, it becomes even more solidified. Using PFSN’s Impact grades and simulating the season 1000 times, I can prove to you just how good this division is through our NFC North projections.
4) Chicago Bears
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.5-8.5
- Division Win Probability: 15.7%
- Playoff Probability: 38.5%
- Super Bowl Probability: 1.8%
Being the lowest-ranked team in this division doesn’t mean you won’t make the playoffs. According to our simulation, the Chicago Bears have the highest probability of making the playoffs among all eight teams projected to finish last in their division. They are 4.7% above the second-highest New England Patriots.
New Bears head coach Ben Johnson is heralded as an offensive mastermind in the league, and it’s well within reason. According to TruMedia, the Detroit Lions ranked second in the NFL in offensive EPA (expected points added) per play during Johnson’s tenure as their offensive coordinator from 2022 to 2024. He is known for his play-action (first in that time frame), middle-of-the-field throws (first), and timing-based throws (seventh quickest time to throw).
While Caleb Williams isn’t known for quick timing, he actually performed much better on these quicker throws (2.7 seconds or less), going for 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions on a much improved EPA versus nine touchdowns, four interceptions, and a much worse EPA on the longer throws. This, plus the arm talent and creativity of Williams, is what makes me especially excited about this offense.
Johnson drafting Colston Loveland in the first round shows that he intends to continue running his 12 personnel looks and establishing the run game while also allowing Williams to air it out. Defensively, the Bears are more of a solid team than a good one. Outside of Jaylon Johnson at corner, they really don’t have any top-end talent superstars that can take over a game.
Overall, the Bears finished 12th in defensive EPA per play with a solid eighth-best pressure rate of 36.8%. With Dayo Odeyingbo and Grady Jarrett joining the defensive line, this should be a relatively solid unit, assuming Gervon Dexter Sr can continue to improve and Jarrett isn’t washed and ready for retirement.
Tyrique Stevenson’s 77.2 CBi impact score from PFSN slots him in as the 46th-best corner of 122 in 2024, indicating he was average but not particularly impressive. Overall, the defense should be around the middle of the pack, maybe slightly above average, entering the 2025 season.
With the offensive line seeing a drastic overhaul and expected improvement, Johnson bringing his creative genius to Chicago, and Williams hopefully taking a step in the right direction for year two, the Bears could make some serious noise.
3) Minnesota Vikings
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.6-8.4
- Division Win Probability: 17.2%
- Playoff Probability: 39.7%
- Super Bowl Probability: 2.3%
The Minnesota Vikings may be ranked third in the division, but they have as high a ceiling as anyone in the league. Starting with the offensive line, they should be back to being one of the best in the game when healthy. Last year was a bit of a struggle after Christian Darrisaw went down with an injury.
Now, they are trotting out Darrisaw, rookie Donovan Jackson, Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, and Brian O’Neill. I obviously don’t have to convince you of the talent at the skill position. Justin Jefferson is enough on his own, but then you add thunder and lightning in the form of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. Add in TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison (when suspension is over), and you have an absolutely loaded offense.
The Vikings managed to rank 15th in offensive EPA with Sam Darnold at quarterback, in large part due to the injuries to the offensive line, as well as costly turnovers (the eighth most EPA lost to turnovers in 2024). One of the best portions of their offense was what Kevin O’Connell was able to cook on scripted plays. Minnesota ranked sixth in offensive EPA on scripted plays, which should greatly benefit young quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
All McCarthy needs to do is manage the game effectively and avoid turnovers. Get your playmakers the ball, hit the play-action shots, and control the game. Offensive_Guru gives us one of O’Connell’s sweet play-action plays that help open things up for the offense in the tweet below. If the run game is as good as I expect it to be, McCarthy should get used to these types of plays for 2025.
Minnesota Vikings Play Action ➡️ Fake Reverse ➡️ TE Delay 🔥#Vikings #Minnesota #NFL pic.twitter.com/mIBqGHpAeB
— Offensive_Guru (@offensive_guru) July 7, 2025
On the opposite side of the ball, Brian Flores is an absolute madman, leading this defense to incredible success. Minnesota’s defense blitzed on 38.6% of drop-backs, which helped them to a 10th-best 35.7% pressure rate. One of my favorite aspects of Flores’ defense is his ability to vary coverage with immense success. Using Shannon entropy to calculate the unpredictability of coverage schemes, the Vikings ranked second in the NFL last season.
This helps break up typical game plans from offenses by mixing it up and forcing them into mistakes based on incorrect pre-snap assumptions. As you can guess, this shows up in the metrics where the Vikings ranked sixth in defensive EPA via turnovers. Outside of X’s and O’s, they now have Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave in the middle to help the stud edge rushers of Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Dallas Turner.
The biggest weakness of this defense is the secondary, where Jeff Okudah looks to be the outside corner number two, opposite of Isaiah Rodgers. Rodgers ranked 54th in our CBi ratings, which means Minnesota will need to get pressure early and often to keep their secondary out of trouble. This situation is exacerbated by the loss of Cam Bynum and their linebackers not being particularly effective in coverage.
2) Green Bay Packers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.4-7.6
- Division Win Probability: 28.4%
- Playoff Probability: 55.7%
- Super Bowl Probability: 4.6%
Jordan Love and the Packers offense struggled at times last season. Even still, they managed the ninth-best offensive EPA because of their nice balance between passing and rushing. They were much less effective from down-to-down ranking 13th in success rate, but managed to rank fifth and fourth in rushing and passing explosive play rate.
Adding Matthew Golden to this offense doesn’t move the needle much for me. I wasn’t the biggest fan of his coming into the draft. His speed in the combine certainly doesn’t match his in-game speed. Overall, this wide receiver room has a bunch of really solid players, but we’ve yet to see anyone emerge and become a true WR1.
There’s a pervasive lie amongst casual NFL fans that Jordan Love is a “bad QB”.
60 passing TDs, 25 INTs, 95.1 passer rating.
You can say he’s a lot of things but he’s absolutely not “bad”. pic.twitter.com/81J9hjmKQ6
— Jacob (@NotionsOfJacob) August 29, 2025
Golden was much better against zone coverage, which plays into Green Bay’s existing strengths, where they go from sixth in offensive EPA against zone coverage to 20th against man coverage. Much like the Vikings, the Packers have a really strong offensive line, ranking third in quick pressure rate allowed, which helps adjust for the fact that Love tends to hold on to the ball.
Defensively, the Packers finished 2024 fourth in EPA, but much of this was predicated on forcing turnovers (third in EPA), which was reflected in their success rate, ranking 21st. Much like the offense, they relied on high-leverage plays to help them win, which is somewhat concerning given the unpredictability and unreliability of turnovers from year to year.
Luckily, trading for Micah Parsons absolutely transforms this defense. Having an edge rusher of that caliber in both the pass and run game completely changes the schemes you can run and how other players are enabled. Brett Kollman does a great job of breaking down Parsons’ impact on a defense.
Having a pass-rusher of the caliber of Rashan Gary opposite Parsons is also a game-changer. Gary had an off-year in 2024, ranking 55th in pressure rate, but he has proven his game-wrecking capabilities in the past. Now, he is virtually guaranteed a one-on-one matchup with Parsons opposite him.
Losing Kenny Clark wasn’t as crazy a loss in this trade as you would imagine, either. The interior defensive line does look a little weak, but Clark hasn’t been playing his best ball in the past two seasons anyway. Add that to the fact that they have PFSN’s 23rd-ranked linebacker in Edgerinn Cooper, and I think the run defense will be fine.
The safeties are great, especially Xavier McKinney, but they are very weak starting and depth-wise at corner. Luckily, Parsons is also able to impact that. Nevertheless, I could definitely see matchup issues against teams like the Vikings, who are loaded on the offensive line, which would allow them to free up Jefferson against the Packers’ secondary.
1) Detroit Lions
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.9-7.1
- Division Win Probability: 38.7%
- Playoff Probability: 66.3%
- Super Bowl Probability: 8.0%
The Detroit Lions lost quite a bit in the coaching staff department. With Aaron Glenn, now the head coach of the New York Jets, and Johnson with the Bears, the Lions are going to look much different in terms of their tendencies. I don’t necessarily think the scheme changes all that much defensively with them promoting within, but it will be interesting to see what John Morton changes on the offensive side of the ball.
Morton was the passing game coordinator for the Denver Broncos for the last two seasons, which means he has had some time with Sean Payton, which likely influenced his coaching style. The most interesting aspect of that will be how Morton adjusts from Payton’s typical low percentage of 12- and 13-personnel formations. The Broncos rank 24th and 20th in the past two years in 12 and 13 personnel usage, while the Lions rank fourth and ninth.
Part of this could be Denver having the 26th and 43rd-best tight ends in PFSN’s TEi Impact scores. Regardless, Morton will need to utilize this much more if he wants to play to Detroit’s strengths. The Lions rank fourth and seventh in offensive EPA in 12 and 13 personnel.
Defensively, the Lions had a litany of injuries last season that completely derailed an otherwise deadly defense. If Aidan Hutchinson can return to the level of play we saw pre-injury, I can see the Lions at least being a top-half of the league defense. Outside of DJ Reader, they lack depth on the interior, and Marcus Davenport isn’t quite on the level of Za’Darius Smith or Josh Paschal.
This, of course, changes drastically once Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeill return from injury as well. This changes their interior defensive line from a weakness to a strength. Jack Campbell had an 84.4 LBi score that put him as the 11th-best linebacker in 2024, and he is only getting better. Then, of course, you have studs Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph dominating in the secondary.
Finish this off with DJ Reed and a hopefully improved and very young Terrion Arnold, and a healthy Lions defense should absolutely be competitive this season.
The biggest question outside of health and scheme this season will be Jared Goff. If Goff can continue on his great 2024 season in his first season without Johnson or Sean McVay, then the Lions should absolutely be the favorite in the NFC North.
One thing is for sure: Whoever comes out of this division is going to be battle-tested, and that home-field advantage is of utmost importance in the playoffs.
