NFL MVP Odds Update: Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy New Betting Favorites, Tua Tagovailoa a Sleeper Candidate?

Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy are the new favorites to win MVP, but who's the most deserving? A look at the NFL MVP odds as well as our picks to win the award.

Throughout this season, I have talked extensively about how close the NFL MVP odds have been and that no runaway favorite has emerged. Before last week, Jalen Hurts was the consensus betting favorite at +150 and was the fourth different player this season to be favored to win the award, joining Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Lamar Jackson.

After Sunday’s Week 13 action, we have our fifth and sixth different NFL MVP favorites of the season, with Dak Prescott at FanDuel, and Brock Purdy at DraftKings.

NFL MVP Odds: Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy Now Betting Favorites

Since their 28-23 loss to the Eagles, Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys have been on a roll. They’ve won four games in a row by an average margin of victory of 24 points per game, and Prescott has been the biggest reason why.

During this stretch, Dak has thrown 13 touchdowns and one interception, with a QB rating of 122.0. With how well Prescott and the Cowboys have played recently, he’s emerged as the new betting favorite at FanDuel at +300.

But Prescott isn’t the only quarterback that has a Super Bowl contender on a big winning streak. Since Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel have returned from injury, Purdy has led the San Francisco 49ers to four straight victories, with blowout wins over top teams such as the Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles.

With how well Purdy has played during this winning streak, he’s emerged as the sole betting favorite at DraftKings, with +300 odds, slightly ahead of Prescott and Hurts (+350 each).

MORE: NFL Playoff Odds 2023

The two biggest sportsbooks in the United States having different sole MVP favorites at this point in the season is very unusual, but it highlights how competitive this race is. Through 13 weeks, no quarterback has separated themselves from the competition, and while skill-position players such as Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey are having historic seasons, they’re each long shots to break the 10-year drought of non-QBs winning the award.

So with five weeks left in the season, who is the best bet to win NFL MVP?

Who Is the Best Bet To Win NFL MVP?

Blewis: While I think Prescott has a better case for the award than Purdy, as I think he’s more directly responsible for his team’s success, I believe the Niners’ QB has a leg up in the MVP race based on recent history.

The biggest obstacle for Prescott is that the Cowboys are still long shots to secure the top seed in the NFC. While I think they most likely beat the Eagles on Sunday since they’ve been dominant at home, and it’s really hard to sweep a division rival in one season, the 49ers would win the three-way tiebreaker for the one seed because they won both head-to-head matchups.

Leading San Francisco to the top seed would significantly improve Purdy’s chances. The last six winners have all been quarterbacks on a No. 1 seeded team.

Although MVP candidates Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Lamar Jackson are all in contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, I think the 49ers are better bets than the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Ravens at the moment to secure a first-round bye in their respective conference.

San Francisco looks unbeatable right now. They’ve beaten the Eagles and Cowboys by 20+ points each and are 9-0 when Samuel and Williams are in the lineup. In fact, since Purdy became the full-time starter in Week 13 of last season, the 49ers haven’t lost a game when their starting offense is completely healthy.

While I think other quarterbacks are more directly responsible for their team’s success, I think Purdy has the edge in how the media will vote for the award. With the recent history of NFL MVP winners, we have no reason to believe it won’t continue to go to the quarterback on the best team, and that’s Purdy.

NFL MVP Prediction: Brock Purdy

Bearman: This is going to look like a homer pick, but if you look at the chances, it’s great value for me to double down on my preseason pick of Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins’ QB is second in the NFL at 288.3 yards per game, second in TD passes with 24, and third in passer rating at 106. All of those stats are impressive, but he isn’t winning the award if Miami isn’t the top seed in the AFC.

But the path to the No. 1 seed is very much alive with the Chiefs losing on Sunday Night Football. If the Dolphins go undefeated the rest of the way, which would include a win over the Ravens, the AFC would go through Miami. Just saying.

NFL MVP Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa

Katz: Much like Bearman, I’m also going to sound like I’m making a homer pick. Last year, Hurts should’ve won it, and had he not gotten hurt and missed Weeks 16 and 17, I think he would have.

As of now, I would still consider Hurts to be the favorite, but the Eagles play the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in what might be the most-watched game of the regular season.

MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor

There’s no question Prescott is currently playing the best football in the NFL at the only position that can win MVP. We know “QB winz” matter, and this is a rare case where a head-to-head matchup might decide the MVP race.

At the very least, I’m confident the winner of this game will be the new betting favorite. If the Cowboys beat the Eagles and Prescott plays at a high level once again, he will just need to go on cruise control over the final four weeks to seal the deal.

NFL MVP Prediction: Dak Prescott

Soppe: The 9-3 Ravens are in the mix for the No. 1 seed, and with the opportunity to earn a pair of high-profile wins late in December (Week 16 at SF, Week 17 vs. MIA), the path for team success fueling Jackson’s case is certainly there.

“Most valuable” is a term we always fight with this time of year. I’ll listen to the arguments against Jackson that start with his raw numbers and say that they pale in comparison to the competition. Tough to argue.

But in terms of “value,” hasn’t Jackson given this team exactly what they need to succeed at the highest of levels? His completion percentage is up six full points from last season, and his interception rate is at a career low.

The Ravens, as a team, don’t have a true black mark on their résumé. All three of their losses have been single-possession games. Running the table is obviously not a given, but the late bye gives Baltimore a good chance to peak at the right time — and thus, Jackson to have an MVP moment around the holiday season.

He wouldn’t get my vote if the season ended today, but guess what? We still have five weeks of data points, and I like Jackson’s trajectory as much as any as we enter the stretch run.

NFL MVP Prediction: Lamar Jackson

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