The NFL is a league of “haves” and “have-nots.” It’s a complicated sport, but it really is that simple, and the NFL Draft brings hope to the “have-nots.”
There are four teams that have outscored their opposition by 375+ points over the past five seasons: the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Baltimore Ravens. Here’s a look at where those teams rank in dropback rate when games over that stretch have been within a single score:
- Chiefs: Highest (66.4%, NFL average: 59%)
- Bills: 3rd (64.1%)
- Buccaneers: 6th (62.8%)
- Ravens: 26th (56.3%, Lamar Jackson is a unique case)
Generally speaking, the teams winning at a high level are confident in putting their fate in the hands of their quarterback, something that a handful of teams hope to have entering 2025. Who could be aggressive in getting their hands on such a prospect?
Which Teams May Trade Up For a QB in the NFL Draft?
Los Angeles Rams
We weren’t sure that Matthew Stafford was going to return this season, and we are even less sure about the depth behind him at the position. The Los Angeles Rams seem to view Jimmy Garoppolo (resigned to a one-year deal in March) as a good insurance policy, as he shares a similar basic skill set and would be able to execute the same plan. But any time your QB1 and QB2’s combined age is 70, investing draft capital is plenty logical.
Stetson Bennett was a fourth-round pick in 2023, but the next professional pass he throws will be his first, and it’s safe to say that he’s not labeled as the team’s QB of the future.
Stafford is coming off his best touchdown-to-interception rate with the Rams and showed well for himself in the postseason (two games: 533 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions), but make no mistake about it, there is some proof that Father Time is lurking.
Matthew Stafford’s Third Down CMP% Since Joining Los Angeles
- 2021: 64.5%
- 2022: 63.6%
- 2023: 62.1%
- 2024: 55%
His pressured passer rating fell by 32.9% last season compared to 2023, another sign that his days as an above-average signal caller in this league could be numbered.
On the bright side, this is a welcoming situation for a young QB. Puka Nacua has established himself as an elite WR1 in this league entering his age-24 season and the Rams exited last season with the 13th-best offensive line in PFSN’s OL+ metric — the best mark of the featured teams on this list.
With Stafford still in the mix and Davante Adams signed for two years, this profiles as the type of offensive environment that can foster the growth of a rookie. Sean McVay moved on from Jared Goff after the 2020 season — he was the league’s third-leading passer from 2018-20 — when he felt an upgrade was available, and thinking he could operate with a long-term vision in this draft isn’t an outlandish train of thought.
San Francisco 49ers
Should this happen, there might be a movie some day about the Brock Purdy experience, no matter how the rest of his career plays out. He went from Mr. Irrelevant to MVP vote-getter in two seasons and, in this scenario, could be brushed aside by a great offensive mind for a rookie like Shedeur Sanders.
Purdy is in the final year of his deal and nothing has been decided just yet when it comes to his future with the organization. His 2023 season was magical (69.4% complete, 4,280 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions), but he did take some steps backward last season and is now approaching a lucrative payday.
San Francisco moved on from Deebo Samuel Sr. this offseason, leaving them with a trio of starting receivers whose average age entering the season will be under 27 and a difference-maker at the tight end position in George Kittle who has plenty of gas left in the tank (he has two seasons with 1,000 yards and six-plus touchdown receptions in his career and they’ve come in each of the past two seasons).
Kyle Shanahan has spent multiple years with four different franchises as either their offensive coordinator or their head coach and here are how those team ranked in average depth of throw during his tenure
- Houston Texans (2008-09): 30th
- Washington Commanders (2010-13): 16th
- Atlanta Falcons (2015-16): 19th
- San Francisco 49ers (2017-24): 29th
To me, that’s not a coincidence; that’s a man with a plan and faith in his system. Sanders isn’t a perfect prospect, but maybe he’s a perfect fit for this offense? He profiles as a commander of the pocket who can execute an efficient attack. In two years at Colorado, he had a 71.8% completion percentage with a 4.9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
This isn’t a knock on Purdy — I think he’s a legitimate NFL quarterback. This is more about highlighting what wins big in the NFL these days, and that’s a viable NFL QB on a rookie deal. If Shanahan believes Sanders is that, we are looking at a nice skill set match for a ready-made team that can save some big bucks ahead of the 2026 season.
New Orleans Saints
Teams bring in new coaches all the time and you know what none of those coaches preach?
Mediocrity.
The New Orleans Saints were the picture of that from 2021-23 (25 wins and 26 losses) prior to running awfully cold with health issues in 2024 (5-12 record). Derek Carr hasn’t leveled up this franchise in a meaningful way outside of the first two weeks last season (91 points scored).
Derek Carr’s QB+ Rankings By Season
- 2021 (with Raiders): 16th
- 2022 (with Raiders): 16th
- 2023 (with Saints): 20th
- 2024 (with Saints): 13th
Kellen Moore is now the man calling the shots and doesn’t have much in the way of ties to the veteran QB. We saw Sean Payton aggressively start a new chapter in his coaching career by making a statement and drafting “his guy” last year — who is to say Moore doesn’t do what it takes to do something similar?
The nice part about this call is that it has multiple outs. My thought is that the Saints will jump the Las Vegas Raiders (sixth overall pick) and New York Jets (seventh) by swapping firsts with either the New England Patriots (fourth) or Jacksonville Jaguars (fifth) — two teams that could end up getting the same player at No. 9 that they already plan on selecting. But maybe Moore has his eye on a Dillon Gabriel type (talk about really following the Payton mold with an older Oregon Duck) and trades up later in the draft.
Other Trade-Up Candidates to Watch
I’ve addressed the high-profile situations where a trade could steal the first-round headlines. Of course, those aren’t the only options; teams could make a move on Day 2 or Day 3 of the festivities in an effort to gain depth at the position.
Could the Miami Dolphins (23rd in pass TD% and 31st in yards per completion since the start of 2023) pick up a quarterback late? Tua Tagovailoa still has four years left on his deal (a potential out after 2026 does exist), but he’s appeared in more than 13 games just once in his career, and signing Zach Wilson on a one-year deal isn’t exactly what would qualify as comfortable depth.
As of this writing, the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ QB situation still lacks clarity and the longer that is the case, the greater the possibility that they address the position at the NFL Draft. Even if an outspoken former MVP elects to come to town, Mike Tomlin will want youth in some fashion on the depth chart. The Steelers have a solid foundation and two strong receivers — this isn’t a bad place for a late-round QB to latch on and develop.
While the Steelers pursue Aaron Rodgers, his former team, the New York Jets, could be interested in moving up in the later rounds should a prospect they fancy fall a bit. New York has a pair of fifth- and sixth-round picks this year, with a trio of selections at their disposal next season. If they have their eye on a tier-three QB as a project they are willing to work with, they have the resources to move on him even after signing Justin Fields.
