The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, and we have four intriguing games to consider for DFS lineups this week. With the potential for weather to interfere with at least one game this weekend, there could be some tough choices to be made, but which players should fantasy football managers be considering for their optimal lineups?
With the assistance of the free PFN NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer, let’s examine the top NFL DFS picks for the full slate of games this weekend.
Who Are the Top NFL DFS Picks for the Divisional Round of the Playoffs?
Baker Mayfield, QB (TB vs. DET) | DK $6,600, FD $7,300
Among the 12 quarterbacks to take the field last week, only two produced better results than Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield. The Bucs took apart the Philadelphia Eagles’ secondary, and Mayfield threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns.
This week, he goes up against a Detroit Lions’ defense that allowed 367 yards and two touchdowns to QB Matthew Stafford.
Across the 2023 season, the Lions allowed an average of 18.45 fantasy points to opposing QBs, with that number reaching closer to 20 in the final few weeks. Over the final two weeks of the season, the Lions allowed just 0.9 fantasy points fewer to QBs than the Eagles’ defense.
With weather not set to be an issue in the only dome game of the weekend, Mayfield could be set for another huge week.
Other options to consider: Brock Purdy (DK only for $6,500), Jared Goff (DK only for $6,300), and Lamar Jackson (FD only $8,700)
Isiah Pacheco, RB (KC at BUF) | DK $6,400, FD $7,500
The running back options this week are intriguing because there’s not really a defense you can point at and feel entirely comfortable targeting.
Throughout the season, Buffalo allowed an average of 21.01 fantasy points to RBs, and it’s hard to see how the Kansas City Chiefs don’t lean on RB Isiah Pacheco.
MORE: NFL Divisional Round Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Picks
Last week, in freezing conditions at Arrowhead Stadium, Pacheco carried the ball 24 times. With it set to be pretty cold once again this week in Buffalo, we could see the Chiefs put the ball in the hands of their lead RB as often as possible. If nothing else, Pacheco should be able to volume his way to providing decent value.
Sitting in a group of RBs priced between $6,100 and $6,700, Pacheco might be the best value on the entire slate just because of that potential for 20+ carries.
Aaron Jones, RB (GB at SF) | DK $6,700, FD $7,400
Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones is coming off of a three-touchdown performance against a team that had a top-10 defense, in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. Yet, it was the first time Jones had scored a touchdown since Week 9, so counting on him to score one this week — let alone three — is a tough ask.
However, it was the fourth straight week in which Jones rushed for over 100 yards.
The San Francisco 49ers’ defense has been good for the most part this season when facing running backs, but they’ve had some tough weeks, allowing over 100 rushing yards in three of the final four games. Included in that was a 234-yard rushing performance by the Arizona Cardinals, including one rushing TD each for RBs James Conner and Emari Demercado.
Other options to consider: Christian McCaffrey (DK only for $8,800), Rachaad White (DK $6,500, FD $6,700)
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR (DET vs. TB) | DK $8,200, FD $9,200
Among the players still active in the NFL playoffs this week, only two did better last week than Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. This week, he gets a nice matchup with a Tampa Bay defense that allowed an average of 36.06 fantasy points to WRs this season.
Last weekend, St. Brown finished with nine targets, which was tied for sixth most, and he should be heavily involved once again in this contest.
In the last five games, St. Brown has averaged 112.4 receiving yards and 7.8 receptions per outing, which gives him an extremely nice floor for fantasy managers. Last week was the first time that he hadn’t found the end zone in five games and only the third time in the previous 10 weeks.
Jayden Reed, WR (GB at SF) | DK $5,200, FD $6,600
I’m hoping that several people will fade Packers WR Jayden Reed after his fantasy point shutout last week. In the Wild Card round, Reed played 46% of the offensive snaps and saw three targets, yet he didn’t have a single reception.
That level of usage is in line with what we’ve seen from Reed this season, but it unfortunately didn’t turn into production the way fantasy managers had hoped.
MORE: Soppe’s NFL Divisional Round Fantasy Football WR Rankings
In the final four weeks of the season, Reed was inactive for one game, scored three touchdowns, and averaged 84.3 receiving yards per game. With a relatively low salary in this slate, Reed could produce tremendous value if he can bounce back to the level of output we saw down the stretch.
Other options to consider: Rashee Rice (DK $6,800 and FD $7,800), Brandon Aiyuk (DK $6,900, FD $7,900), and Mike Evans (DK $7,200, FD $7,600)
Sam LaPorta, TE (DET vs. TB) | DK $5,900, FD $6,600
Sam LaPorta was dealing with an injury last week, but he still managed to find the end zone. However, it didn’t result in a particularly big output because he only reeled in three catches.
Still, LaPorta was hampered by a knee issue, which he now appears to be fully recovered from after opening the week as a full participant. He should return to being a major part of the offense — especially with a nice matchup against the Buccaneers’ defense.
This season, Tampa Bay allowed an average of 14.73 fantasy points per game to tight ends. Included in that were 5.7 receptions, 59.7 receiving yards, and 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game on average allowed to the position.
Other options to consider: Isaiah Likely (DK $5,500 and FD $4,700) and Tucker Kraft (DK $3,100, FD $4,800)
Kansas City Chiefs DST (at BUF) | DK $2,700 FD $3,800
The Chiefs’ defense has been really good for the most part this season, and I don’t see that changing too much this week. Kansas City will take on a Bills team that is not immune to mistakes (28 turnovers on offense this season, ranked 10th in the league).
In terms of turnovers, Buffalo played a clean game last week, but that was just their fourth in 18 games.
The Chiefs’ defense was not particularly big with turnovers this year, but they have been an extremely tough defense to score on. Kansas City had the second-best unit in points allowed, yards allowed, sacks, and pressure rate.
It will be tough going on the road to Buffalo, but KC’s defense did not allow more than 27 points in a single game this season and only allowed over 20 on four occasions.
Other options to consider: Baltimore Ravens (DK $3,500 and FD $4,300)
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