We have reached the final DFS classic slate of the NFL season, as the AFC and NFC Conference Championships take place. Who are the top value NFL DFS picks among the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, and Detroit Lions this weekend?
With the assistance of the free PFN NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer, let’s examine the top NFL DFS picks for today’s games.
Who Are the Top NFL DFS Picks for the Conference Championships?
Brock Purdy, QB (SF vs. DET) | DK $6,400, FD $7,700
Of the quarterbacks playing last week, only Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud had worse fantasy returns than Brock Purdy. The 49ers QB did not play particularly badly, but 252 yards and one touchdown just doesn’t move the needle from a fantasy perspective.
#49ers QB Brock Purdy averaged 9.6 yards per pass this season — tied for 8th-best season of all time.
This was better than any Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, or Aaron Rodgers season. 🤯
Get more 2023 fantasy stats to know from @KyleSoppePFN: https://t.co/Nx40VK0LvJ#FTTB pic.twitter.com/7IcGYUWXlL
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 12, 2024
This week, things get a little easier on a couple of fronts. First, the weather in San Francisco is supposed to be better, which should help the passing game a touch. We saw both Purdy and Love struggling at times as they battled wet and windy conditions.
The second element is Purdy’s matchup with the Lions. Last week, Baker Mayfield posted 23.46 fantasy points, and Matthew Stafford had 22.68 fantasy points on Wild Card Weekend.
Even if he only scores 19-20 fantasy points this week, Purdy would represent a solid value on his price point across both platforms. If he gets to 22-23, that would represent significant value.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB (DET @ SF) | DK $6,400, FD $7,000
Over the course of the last two weeks, Jahmyr Gibbs as averaged over 18 fantasy points per game on DraftKings and over 17 per game on FanDuel.
Last week, he managed to reach the 19-20 point mark against one of the best defenses against the run this season. It wasn’t always pretty, but his talent shined in a couple of spots.
The biggest risk with Gibbs is that, compared to the likes of Christian McCaffrey or Isiah Pacheco, his touches are somewhat limited. With David Montgomery healthy, Gibbs often finds himself splitting opportunities with the veteran back, limiting the rookie’s ceiling. However, the fact he’s still provided great returns with those limits is a testament to his skills.
Aaron Jones was able to put together a 15+ point performance last week against the 49ers. In total, the Packers’ RBs finished with over 18 fantasy points on 26 touches. We should see Gibbs and Montgomery get close to eclipsing that number of touches, and Gibbs has been the more effective of the two in recent weeks.
Isiah Pacheco, RB (KC @ BAL) | DK $6,500, FD $7,800
This isn’t any more nuanced than a volume play with Pacheco. The Chiefs RB touched the ball 16 times last week after compiling 25 touches on Wild Card Weekend. Among the RBs still active this weekend, only McCaffrey had more touches last week than Pacheco.
The game in Baltimore is expected to see cold weather and should go down to the wire. That should work in Pacheco’s favor, and we have seen he Chiefs love using him around the goal line. After they got clever last week and it backfired, we could see Kansas City going back to what they know works inside the 5-yard line.
Justice Hill, RB (BAL vs. KC) | DK $4,800, FD $5,500
Of course, if you have the salary space to use McCaffrey, you aren’t picking Hill over the 49ers star. However, if you are looking to save some salary, Hill presents a nice value upside option, especially on DraftKings.
Last week, Hill saw 13 attempts and two targets, producing a return of 8.7 points on FanDuel and 9.7 on DraftKings. We have seen how much the Ravens have been getting him involved in recent weeks, and that should continue in the NFC Championship. The Bills threw the ball to James Cook five times last week, and the Ravens could use Hill in a similar role.
There is a real chance for Hill to return a greater-than-two-times fantasy output compared to salary, especially on DraftKings. That PPR scoring with the lower price makes Hill extremely enticing as a cheap lineup filler.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR (SF vs. DET) | DK $6,900, FD $7,800
It may not have been a vintage performance from Brandon Aiyuk last week, but in this matchup, he is one of the core pieces I am looking at when building my lineup. The Lions simply couldn’t stop the downfield threat of Mike Evans, who finished with eight receptions, 147 yards, and a touchdown last week.
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Aiyuk is that same downfield threat for the 49ers, and the Lions have struggled with stopping opposing passing games all season. They have pretty consistently been among the bottom five in terms of fantasy points allowed to WRs this season. Regardless of who is lining up at the other WR spot, Aiyuk should provide solid value this week.
Rashee Rice, WR (KC at BAL) | DK $6,500, FD $7,100
Last week was a come-down week for Rice, with just four receptions for 40 yards. However, one bad week doesn’t change the fact that he was on a tear heading into the Divisional Round. Last week saw Rice’s first single-digit performance on DraftKings since Week 11, and he was coming off three performances of over 20 fantasy points in his past four games.
The Chiefs are going to need to get their offense going somewhere, and the Ravens have a fantastic group down the middle. That could negate Travis Kelce’s impact and open up the chance for Rice to get back into the 20-point region.
Isaiah Likely, TE (BAL vs. KC) | DK $4,300, FD $5,400
It looks like Mark Andrews will return this week, but that doesn’t change the excitement surrounding Isaiah Likely. Thanks to a touchdown last week, he made it five games in his last six with double-digit returns.
Throughout this run, Likely has been very touchdown-dependent, but he has consistently seen red-zone usage. Having Andrews returning hurts Likely’s floor, but the ceiling remains pretty strong, assuming the veteran isn’t going to be 100% on Sunday. Likely provides the best opportunity for upside at his salary when it comes to the tight end position.
San Francisco 49ers DST (vs. DET) | DK $3,300, FD $4,500
You can really make the case for any of the defenses this week that aren’t named the Lions. If you have the salary, the best floor belongs to the 49ers simply because of their talent and the fact that the opposing quarterback is Jared Goff.
San Francisco forced a couple of errors out of Love last week, and I expect them to do the same with Goff. If you want to save some cash, then both the Ravens and Chiefs are in play.
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