Since Week 2, DL Jalen Carter has been the betting favorite to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, as the defensive tackle from Georgia has made an immediate impact since being drafted ninth overall by the Philadelphia Eagles. Last week, Carter’s Defensive Rookie of the Year odds at -20000 indicated that he appeared to be a near-certainty to win the award, as a $10 bet on him would return a profit of just five cents.
But in the last week, two rookies — Houston Texans EDGE Will Anderson Jr. and Los Angeles Rams DT Kobie Turner — have seen a drastic shift in their Defensive Rookie of the Year odds, making this an award that is certainly up for grabs heading into the final week of the regular season.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Can Will Anderson Jr. or Kobie Turner Catch Up to Jalen Carter?
In the past few days, there has been a huge shakeup in the betting market for Defensive Rookie of the Year. After he was -20000 before the Eagles’ Week 17 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, Carter’s odds have fallen rapidly, and he is now just -150 to win the award.
As Carter’s odds have shifted dramatically, Anderson and Turner’s have moved in the opposite direction, as they’re now just +200 and +500 apiece. For just one week, this has been a significant movement, to say the least, and to understand why this escalated so quickly, we spoke to PointsBet/Fanatics trader Ethan Useloff.
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“The DROY market has seen a lot of movement recently, as Jalen Carter went from as short as -20000 to now -150 in the past week,” said Useloff. “This is not an indictment on his performance, as he finished with a sack, but rather the second and third-place candidates both standing out.
“Will Anderson Jr. (+200) has had two multi-sack games in the past three weeks, putting him at seven sacks for the season. These two players were expected to be finalists for the award, but third-round pick Kobie Turner of the Rams has burst onto the scene, recently. Turner has posted seven sacks over the past six games, having more than one sack in three of these contests.”
“Though Anderson’s numbers are impressive, he plays a position that has greater sack expectations, while Carter and Turner are interior defensive linemen, making their stats more eye-opening, Useloff explained.
“Carter leads all qualified rookies in pass rush win rate (16.9%), despite playing his position and having to take on double teams on 59% of his pass rush snaps. Anderson does have a great opportunity to leap Carter in the DROY race if he has a big game on the national stage on Saturday night in primetime.”
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