The 2026 NFL Draft is here! After months of evaluating prospects and projecting what will happen using PFSN’s NFL Mock Draft Simulator, it’s finally time to get some answers.
The first round kicks off tonight at 8 p.m. ET, followed by Rounds 2-3 on Day 2 and Rounds 4-7 on Day 3. Don’t expect to hear many quarterbacks selected this evening, as this is widely regarded as a weak QB class.
There’s a real possibility that projected No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza will be the only QB selected on Day 1, which is rare in today’s NFL. Over the last 24 years, there have only been two NFL Drafts where a single QB was picked in the first round: 2022 (Kenny Pickett at No. 20) and 2013 (EJ Manuel at No. 16).
While this isn’t a strong QB class, there are some intriguing options in the middle-to-late rounds. In order to get a good feel for their skill set and game, PFSN’s NFL Draft analyst Ian Cummings provided NFL player comparisons for the notable QBs in this class.
Fernando Mendoza’s NFL Player Comparison: Carson Palmer
After a monster 2025 season that saw him win the Heisman Trophy and lead his Indiana Hoosiers to a Big Ten title and national championship, Fernando Mendoza is expected to be the No. 1 overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders.
At 6’5″, 225 pounds, Mendoza has the ideal prototypical frame, along with quick feet, nimble pocket mobility, and understated creation capacity and off-script feel. He’s a crisp rotational thrower who always gives his WR a chance, and also flashes high-end situational precision and layering ability.
Beyond that, he has the rifle arm strength, pre-snap and post-snap recognition, and keen anticipation to make NFL-level throws both up the seams and outside the hashes. There’s a degree of arm arrogance in Mendoza’s game that he’ll have to tamp down, but that’s a byproduct of him seeing those miniscule windows and having the fearlessness to take chances. He’s a pocket passer first; while he’s a great linear athlete, his hip stiffness limits his appeal operating off-platform and sources mechanical instability on the move.
However, in the pocket, he’s a gunslinger with a perfectly calibrated risk propensity pallet and a penchant for delivering in key moments, who resembles a young, peak Carson Palmer. He’s a clear franchise QB candidate, who can elevate an organization toward Super Bowl contention.
Ty Simpson’s NFL Player Comparison: Marc Bulger
Ty Simpson’s sample size remains frustratingly small, but the Alabama passer took the NFL Draft world by storm with his quick ascent in 2025. Simpson waited his turn to start at Alabama, and at his best in 2025, that time developing appeared to have molded him into a clear Round 1 passer.
But ugly losses to Oklahoma and Indiana exposed Simpson’s biggest issues, and even through the wins later in the year, he proved more inconsistent than desired.
One of Simpson’s best traits is his mechanical profile; he has some of the cleanest throwing form in the class, with consistent sync and hip torque across situations. And in his best moments, he’s shown he can quickly discern coverage voids pre-snap and anticipate over the middle.
That said, his post-snap processing and trigger run hot-and-cold, his situational precision falters too often in spite of his solid mechanics, and his non-elite arm strength shows up when attempting to drive passes downfield.
With his general freneticism, Simpson could’ve benefitted from returning to school, but in a scarce QB class, he’s the best positioned to benefit. He resembles Marc Bulger with his talent profile and good-not-great operational skill set, and while he may never elevate a team to Super Bowl contention, a quality starting career is on the table.
Garrett Nussmeier’s NFL Player Comparison: Andy Dalton
Garrett Nussmeier is one of the most polarizing QB prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft, particularly after a 2025 season that saw him benched down the stretch.
At 6’1″, 200 pounds, he’s not a prototypically-built QB. He doesn’t have elite athleticism or creation ability, and his arm is middling.
But in spite of these limiting elements, there’s no denying his gamer mentality. Defying his frame, Nussmeier isn’t afraid to stand in and deliver tough throws under pressure, nor is he scared of getting out in the flats and operating off-platform. He’s also one of the most advanced processors in the class, with moments of high-level pre-snap command, anticipation, and gunslinger grit on film.
The “gunslinger” moniker swings both ways for Nussmeier, who is prone to taking ill-advised risks more often than preferred, and his accuracy did not progress in 2025. With average tools, his margin for error is slimmer, and this likely relegates to a backup and spot-starter role in the NFL. That said, with the right support and time to reset, he has the requisite mental acuity, and could carve out a career similar to Andy Dalton at his best.
Carson Beck’s NFL Player Comparison: Matt Leinart
Carson Beck was a QB1 candidate entering the 2025 NFL Draft cycle. His 2024 campaign was reasonably productive, and Georgia still went 11-2 under his watch, but a notable regression in accuracy and decision making led Beck to return to school and transfer to Miami for his final season. In his final season, Beck helped lead Miami to a national championship appearance, but his stock remains tempered.
He had surgery to repair the UCL in his right arm after the 2025 season, and his arm simply hasn’t been the same since. Arm strength was once a positive of Beck’s profile, but it is now a weakness, and it places a greater limitation on his outlook. He has the processing ability and checkdown awareness to be a quality backup, but even as an exclusive pocket passer, he can experience bouts of inaccuracy and arm arrogance that induce volatility.
Purely a Day 3 prospect, Beck’s experience underlies his value as a QB2 in the NFL.
Cade Klubnik’s NFL Player Comparison: Colt McCoy
Cade Klubnik is a former five-star recruit and historic high school producer, who grew to become one of the more prolific passers in college football. His senior season was a notable regression, however, that saw him put up inconsistent film as a processor and field general down-over-down.
At 6’2″, 210 pounds, he’s not quite the big-armed prototypical passer you’d expect in contention for early-round capital, but he’s nonetheless a very compelling talent.
At his best, he’s an electric point guard-style passer in the mold of Bo Nix, with dynamic athleticism, universal off-platform throwing ability, and endless arm angle freedom. However, his abundance of physical talent is marred by a lack of consistent post-snap discernment, field vision, and anticipation, and his situational accuracy took a step back in 2025.
Klubnik still holds mid-round appeal as an ideal backup in West Coast-style schemes, but he’s a developmental QB in the mental category, who might not get the development he needs at the next level. Nevertheless, if he can expand on the flashes of leverage IQ and spatial awareness, he has starting upside.
Diego Pavia’s NFL Player Comparison: Trace McSorley
Diego Pavia was one of the stars of the 2025 college football season. He began his collegiate career at New Mexico Military Institute after being overlooked as a high scool recruit, and leveraged a dominant second season at NMMI into an opportunity with the New Mexico State Aggies.
With the Aggies, Pavia distinguished himself as a dynamic two-phase playmaker, and eventually ascended to the SEC as Vanderbilt’s field general.
In 2025, Pavia was a Heisman finalist, and earned the top PFSN QB Impact score in the nation, with a grade of 94.8. Pavia’s analytics inspire hope; he’s an efficient, fairly accurate passer who avoids ill-advised risks, and he boasts a juiced-up and gritty running style. However, his on-field evaluation does leave questions.
His processing isn’t quite NFL-caliber, nor is his arm strength, and even his athleticism might not be as prevalent against NFL talent. Pavia has the desired mobility, toughness, and quick-game utility to function as an NFL backup, but his ceiling is likely capped beyond that.
Taylen Green’s NFL Player Comparison: Logan Thomas
Taylen Green stands to benefit as one of the more traits-rich quarterbacks in the sparse 2026 NFL Draft class. The Mountain West Freshman of the Year back in 2022, Green took his talents to Arkansas and failed to show substantial year-over-year development, but nonetheless managed to enthrall with flashes of elite physical talent and 1-on-1 discernment.
At his best, Green showed he could layer the ball over second-level defenders with pace and touch, operate off-platform on designed rollouts, and generate eye-catching velocity from different launch points.
However, Green’s field vision, accuracy, and risk aversion remain sore areas, even after four years as a starter. Green has the raw physical talent of a starter, but it remains to be seen if he can handle the hastened pace of the NFL.
In the right environment, with time to sit, he could grow, but his more likely outcome is that of a backup and eventual spot-starter.
Drew Allar’s NFL Player Comparison: Zach Mettenberger
Drew Allar is perhaps the most quintessential “prototypical QB” in the 2026 NFL Draft. A former five-star recruit, he has the frame at 6’5″, 235 pounds. He has the rocket arm, and he has the nimble mobility and arm elasticity to work off-platform.
He also accrued a glowing record of 26-9 in his time as a starter, and helped lead Penn State to the CFB Playoff semifinals in 2024, showing glimpses of very real pre-snap command, post-snap processing, and break anticipation in the process.
While Allar has an enticing blend of raw talent and offensive command, however, flaws remain on his profile. His accuracy and precision runs very hot-and-cold, his dropback and release mechanics are near liability level, and he’s not the level of rushing threat to create his way out of bad situations consistently.
His season-ending ankle injury suffered in November also clouds his immediate availability. Allar will check all the cosmetic boxes for teams, and he’ll be just a 22-year old rookie despite being a three-year collegiate starter. He’s a low-price, low-risk investment in later rounds, but his mechanics essentially need to be rebuilt from the ground up before he can take live reps reliably.
