With roughly a quarter of the season in the books, cold starts are rapidly turning into lost seasons. And while the first week of October remains quite early for a head coaching change, recent years have seen the likes of Dennis Allen (Oakland Raiders) and Joe Philbin (Miami Dolphins) dismissed after Week 4.
Following losses on Sunday, a quartet of NFL head coaches face significant pressure to deliver results soon to preserve their jobs.
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
Will Nick Sirianni Be Fired by the Eagles in 2024?
The Philadelphia Eagles‘ head coach has been one of the most divisive ever since Philadelphia’s late-season collapse in 2023, and a listless loss in Tampa Bay only magnifies the questions surrounding the Eagles. Philly trailed 24-0 after going three-and-out on each of its first three drives on Sunday, being outgained 255-0 at one point in the second quarter.
Though Philadelphia remains firmly in the NFC East race at 2-2, their profile does not suggest one of a serious contender. The Eagles have been outscored 33-14 in the first half of their last three games and have struggled with ball security.
Nick Sirianni took the blame for not having his team prepared for Week 4 in Tampa. | @myteamtoyota pic.twitter.com/DJaq5WLiIG
— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) September 29, 2024
Philadelphia has the second-worst turnover margin in the league (-6), in large part due to Jalen Hurts’ struggles. Hurts has turned the ball over in nine straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest by an Eagles player since at least 2000.
The defense has also gotten diced up, ranking 27th in EPA per play (-0.07). Vic Fangio’s defenses have a reputation for limiting big plays. But the Eagles have struggled to do that thanks in large part to shoddy tackling. Philadelphia ranks 27th in yards after the catch per reception (6.0) after ranking 11th in that category last season.
Sirianni and the Eagles will receive a much-needed bye in Week 5. And with four straight games against teams currently .500 or below, the Eagles need to take advantage of a winnable schedule before their first meeting with the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10.
Can Doug Pederson Survive the Jaguars’ 0-4 Start?
The Jacksonville Jaguars showed more life in Sunday’s loss at the Houston Texans, leading for over half the game after trailing wire to wire the previous two weeks. But a failure to close out the game puts Jacksonville at 0-4, a hole that only the 1992 San Diego Chargers have climbed out of to reach the playoffs.
At this point, the postseason feels light-years away. The Jaguars have lost Trevor Lawrence’s last nine starts, with the $55 million per year man ranking 25th in EPA per dropback (-0.08) over that span.
Lawrence has actually corralled his turnover woes this year with just a single interception and no fumbles lost so far. The issue is that the explosive plays have disappeared, as Lawrence is averaging a career-low 6.0 yards per attempt and is completing just 40% of his passes of 15+ air yards (including 3-11 on Sunday).
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Given Jacksonville’s massive investment in Lawrence, the top priority for the rest of the season is helping him recapture the promise he showed in the second half of the 2022 season.
Pederson has led the Jaguars to back-to-back winning seasons, a noteworthy accomplishment given Jacksonville’s decade of ineptitude before that. But the collapse down the stretch in 2023 wiped away most of that goodwill, and the 0-4 start has extinguished the rest.
Is Robert Saleh on the Hot Seat After a Week 4 Loss?
A sneaky hot-seat candidate could be New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets have the third-worst record in the NFL since Saleh took over in 2021 (20-35), but much of that was dismissed as Zach Wilson-fueled sabotage. However, a healthy Aaron Rodgers brings playoff expectations. Now that the Jets are 2-2 following a touchdown-less loss to the Denver Broncos, Saleh could be feeling the pressure.
The tricky part of this evaluation is that Saleh is a former defensive coordinator, and the Jets have continued to field elite defenses. After Sunday, the Jets rank ninth in EPA per play and seventh in defensive success rate, the third straight year they’ve ranked top 10 in both categories.
But while the offense is no longer in contention for worst in the league, they remain a middling unit that ranks 16th in EPA per play (-0.02) and 15th in success rate (41.8%).
Aaron Rodgers seems to get annoyed when asked about Robert Saleh’s comments about dialing back the cadence on offense. “That’s one way to do it. The other way is to hold them accountable.” 😳#Jets pic.twitter.com/PUbM2WvCsK
— Optimistic Jets (@OptimisticJets) September 29, 2024
The real issue for New York is squandering a very winnable game before a difficult stretch. Over the next five weeks, the Jets will face the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings, 3-0 Buffalo Bills, 3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers, and 3-1 Texans. Only a trip to the rebuilding New England Patriots represents a game where the Jets will likely be favored.
The Jets are fully capable of winning some of those coin-toss games, but a slump could jeopardize their playoff chances far earlier than most expected. The AFC is even more wide open this year thanks to slow starts from expected contenders such as the Cincinnati Bengals, Jaguars, and Miami Dolphins. If Saleh can’t lead the Jets to the playoffs in this landscape, he may not get another chance.
Will Kevin Stefanski Get Fired by the Browns?
The two-time Coach of the Year could find himself in hot water after a loss to the injury-depleted Raiders. The Browns are 1-3 with their only victory coming over the winless Jaguars, and lost to a team missing its two best players in Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby.
Deshaun Watson is averaging -0.26 EPA per dropback, fourth-worst ahead of only Bryce Young, Will Levis and Bo Nix. That’s tied for the worst EPA per dropback through four games by a Browns quarterback since 2000 (along with 2009 Brady Quinn). The next-worst on the list…is Watson last season (-0.20).
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That’s remarkable and alarming given how Browns quarterbacks have played this century. Last year’s team clawed its way to the playoffs thanks to a spectacular defense, but Cleveland has fallen to 12th in defensive EPA per play after leading the NFL in that category last season.
Even while remaining an above-average unit, a predictable regression to the mean has left the Browns as a non-contender given the abysmal state of the offense. With Watson’s contract making him virtually immovable, Stefanski could find himself scapegoated if the season continues to spiral.