It was another excellent weekend of NFL action, and we are beginning to see who the top tier teams are as we near the quarter mark of the 2020 campaign. That said, we have bets to make. We went 2-3 this past week, which, while not great, leaves us with a winning record on the year. Here are the best NFL betting lines, and whom you should bet on, for Week 4.
NFL Betting Lines: Official Plays
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Tennessee Titans, Over/Under 47
We are well aware of the situation with Tennessee and their positive tests and will adjust the play accordingly once more information is obtained. That said, this is the only game of the week that will feature two 3-0 teams. While both Pittsburgh and Tennessee are undefeated, they have had different means of getting there.
The Steelers have looked solid in all three games so far, winning by an average of eight points with a defense that leads the NFL in sacks (15). Tennessee has won their games by a combined six points. That said, the combined record of both team’s opponents is 1-17; they are each other’s first test of the season.
The Steelers have come out moving full steam ahead, with their dynamic offensive weapons now having the benefit of playing with a healthy and motivated Ben Roethlisberger.
The Titans, on the other hand, have looked flat at many points. They struggled against Denver and had to rely on a last-minute field goal to get the win. They also allowed a 13 point fourth-quarter comeback to Jacksonville and had to climb back to beat a Vikings team that is 0-3. While Jonnu Smith has looked great, the Steelers have the personnel to limit his production.
The Steelers are 2-1 against the spread in 2020, while the Titans are 0-3. They have played down to their competition, and quite frankly, they don’t look nearly as good as many would have you believe.
Jarrett’s Official Pick: PIT (-1): The Steelers look much more comfortable and consistent on the field. Roethlisberger and the offense are always a big play waiting to happen, and I believe in their defense more than Tennessee’s. The line will fluctuate between sportsbooks; some have gone as high as 2.5. Even at that line, I like Pittsburgh to win and cover.
Miami Dolphins (+6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks, Over/Under 54
The Seahawks are being carried by Russell Wilson, who is having a season unlike any we have ever seen. He is completing nearly 77 percent of his passes along with 14 touchdowns and just one interception, which was caused by a dropped pass by Greg Olsen.
The Dolphins have been competitive in every game they have played, and embarrassed the Jaguars this past Thursday. The 21-11 defeat in Week 1 at the hands of the Patriots was more competitive than the ten-point loss showed, and they lost by just three to a formidable Bills team before going on the road and beating Jacksonville.
The Dolphins have covered in two of their three games, while Seattle is 3-0 against the spread thus far. That said, the Seahawks defense is suspect, and the Dolphins passing game should be able to keep it close.
Jarrett’s Official Play: MIA (+6.5): The Seahawks will be without their best defender Jamal Adams, and Chris Carson has a sprained knee. The Dolphins have the weapons to take advantage of a weakened Seattle defense that, even when completely healthy, has struggled.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Over/Under 49.5
The poor Bengals; they very well could be 2-1 right now after a Week 1 heartbreaker to the Chargers and a five-point loss to Cleveland. In Week 3, Cincinnati tied the Eagles to fall to 0-2-1.
There is good news and bad news, however, for the Bengals. The good news is that Joe Burrow looks like the real deal and has played very well; the bad news is that he is getting tortured by opposing front sevens each week.
Jacksonville got off to a surprising start beating the Colts and nearly completing a fourth-quarter comeback to beat Tennessee before being humiliated at home by the Dolphins. While Gardner Minshew has proven he is not just a stop-gap quarterback, his defense is doing him no favors.
While the opposition is best against the Bengals when they get pressure on Burrow, the Jaguars have the second-fewest sacks in the NFL with three. Plus, the Jaguars don’t have the secondary to keep up with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins, while also containing Joe Mixon out of the backfield.
Both teams come into Week 4 with a 2-1 record against the spread, but the Bengals offensive talent should be good enough to beat out the Jaguars’ defense.
Jarrett’s Official Play: CIN (-3): Burrow has to get a win eventually. He has shown up in the first three weeks against superior talent to that of the Jaguars. This will be the first win of the Burrow era.
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers, Over/Under 52.5
Don’t worry, Cardinals fans, I said the Lions would beat the Cardinals this past Sunday. Detroit is a good football team, despite what their record shows. The Cardinals fell victim to the Lions solid passing game against their subpar pass defense. That said, the Panthers are far less talented on both sides of the ball than Detroit, and they will be without Christian McCaffrey.
The Panthers may have got the win on the road Sunday over the Chargers, but they were playing a rookie quarterback who had one start under his belt. Yes, Justin Herbert looked good in that start, but it is much easier to prepare for a quarterback when you know he is the starter and have some tape on him.
Even so, the Chargers were a caught lateral from Keenan Allen to Austin Ekeler away from winning on the last play of the game. The Panthers run game ranks near the bottom of the league, so they will be looking to pass more against a Cardinals pass defense that, while improved, is still just a mediocre unit.
That said, the Cardinals offense is exceptionally talented and should feast on the young defense of the Panthers.
The Cardinals are 2-1 against the spread and coming off a game in which they played poorly. Carolina is 1-2 against the spread and is in the midst of a rebuild.
Jarrett’s Official Play: ARI (-3.5): The Cardinals have far greater talent than Carolina, and they are coming off a tough loss where they played poorly. Expect them to be motivated and dominate a Carolina team that will once again be without the man they call “Dairy Sanders,” running back McCaffrey.
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) vs. Cleveland Browns, Over/Under 55
This may be my favorite play of the week. Dallas will be able to put up points against this Browns defense that lacks talent beyond their defensive line. Denzel Ward is solid at cornerback, but who will be able to keep up with CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup while Ward is on Amari Cooper? Their defense has allowed the second-most touchdown passes in the NFL, and Dak Prescott has been cooking the last two weeks through the air.
The Browns haven’t looked good against good pass rushes this season. Baltimore dominated them in all facets, and while they beat Washington, Baker Mayfield threw for just 156 yards. If DeMarcus Lawrence and the Dallas pass rush gets consistent pressure, the Browns will make mistakes which will set up the Cowboys’ offense and put them in better positions to win.
Dallas has yet to cover this season, going 0-3 against the spread while Cleveland is just 1-2. Being at home will play to the Cowboys’ advantage.
Jarrett’s Official Play: DAL (-4.5): The Browns secondary won’t be able to keep up with the stacked offense of the Cowboys. Expect a big day from Dallas and Prescott.
NFL Betting Lines 2020: Official Leans
Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Atlanta Falcons, Over/Under 57.5
Aaron Rodgers is playing like an MVP candidate, and even without Davante Adams, Sunday night against New Orleans, he was in his bag and leading the Packers to a somewhat convincing win on the road.
The Falcons are a loss away from the Dan Quinn era very likely being over. They have blown two big leads in back to back games, and their pass defense allows big plays at will. If there were a team that they really don’t want to play right now, Green Bay is at the top of that list with the way their passing game has been clicking.
Jarrett’s Official Lean: GB (-7): While it seems easy to pick Green Bay and lay the seven, the Falcons could play inspired football in an effort once again to extend Quinn’s time in the ATL.
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders, Over/Under 51.5
Buffalo is a top-five team in the NFL, but they also allowed 29 unanswered points to the Rams and blew a 28-3 lead. They salvaged the win, yes, but they began to coast and played sloppily. That said, I love what Josh Allen is doing, and the Raiders’ defense has been inconsistent. They may have shut down Drew Brees, but they allowed Teddy Bridgewater to drop dimes all game Week 1 in Carolina.
The injury bug is also riddling Las Vegas. Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs III, two key targets in their offense, are hurt, and the Bills linebackers are more than capable of keeping up with Darren Waller and keeping him somewhat in check, which would force Derek Carr to look elsewhere to throw.
Jarrett’s Official Lean: BUF (-3): I like Buffalo, and the Raiders are injured, and we don’t know who they are. Keep in mind, though, the Raiders are at home, and it’s a long trip from Buffalo to Las Vegas. The Bills are the better team, but we could see the Raiders surprise another good team in their new home.