After finishing with an abysmal 3-14 record, the Las Vegas Raiders are entering the offseason with the number one pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The 2025 season as a whole was filled with disappointing moments, especially with their newly acquired quarterback, Geno Smith, and new head coach, Pete Carroll.
Entering the offseason, the Raiders are looking for both a new coach and a QB, but all signs point to their answer at QB coming in the draft.
The #1 Pick Is Projected To Be a QB Heading to Las Vegas, but Could That Change?
As of now, QB prospect and National Championship winner Fernando Mendoza is projected to be selected at #1 overall. This makes sense with the lack of QB talent in this draft, Mendoza being by far the best, and the Raiders having a massive need.
Anything can happen with the Raiders’ pick, and Mendoza is not a guarantee of being selected just yet. One NFL analyst, Danny Parkins, believes that there is a scenario where the Raiders should trade away their top pick, “I do think trading a #1 pick for a haul is always the right move if you have any doubt with the quarterback.
.@DannyParkins argues the Raiders should trade down from No. 1 rather than select Fernando Mendoza
“Trading the No. 1 pick for a haul is almost always the right move if you have any doubt about the quarterback.” 👀 pic.twitter.com/AmVOM524Qz
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) January 20, 2026
The Raiders trading away their #1 pick would be a shocking move, but not impossible. With the 2026 NFL Draft being weaker and the 2027 QB class being absolutely loaded, Las Vegas may want to risk and punt their rookie QB selection to the next draft.
As Parkins explained, that only happens if there are any doubts about Mendoza. If the Raiders and minority owner Tom Brady believe that Mendoza is the guy to lead the franchise, then they should stay at #1; if not, that’s another story.
Last season, there was a belief that the Tennessee Titans were willing to trade back from number 1 for most of the offseason, but once they believed Cam Ward was the guy, there was no chance of a trade happening. This could be a similar storyline we see all offseason, especially with the 2027 class looming over any decision teams make.
This will be an extremely important offseason for the Raiders, and if they can hit on QB, potentially Mendoza, and find a great HC, the Raiders may be able to turn things around quicker than expected.
