Tyler Shough was drafted 40th overall by the New Orleans Saints, surprising many pundits, fans, and analysts. With Shedeur Sanders still on the board, the Saints made a bold move going in another direction.
The pick opened up the floodgates, revealing just how far Sanders might slide. And for some analysts, Shough’s selection raised even more questions about the quarterback pecking order coming out of the 2025 NFL Draft.
How Tyler Shough Could Have Been Selected No. 1 Overall in NFL Draft
Speaking in a post-2025 NFL Draft clip of “The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny,” NFL analysts Mina Kimes and Nate Tice discussed the Saints’ surprising decision to draft Shough.
“If shough was 21 he’d be 1.1. Yeah, yeah”. #GotMyFuture pic.twitter.com/HS4bq1XhfF
— ٍ (@SlimeBetter) April 27, 2025
“If Jaxson Dart was 26 [years old], we would not have been even talking about him,” Kimes said.
“If Shough was 21 [years old], he would be 1-1 [No. 1 overall],” Tice said.
Shough is 25 years old and heading into an age-26 season. His birthday falls on Sept. 28, making him one of the older rookie quarterbacks entering the league this year.
He’s coming off his most productive college season, throwing for 23 touchdowns and just six interceptions during his final year at Louisville. That performance capped a long journey across three different programs — beginning with the Oregon Ducks, then a stint at Texas Tech, and finally a breakout year with the Louisville Cardinals.
Before this standout season, Shough’s best statistical year came back in 2020, when he posted 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. It’s a career arc that paints a complicated picture for scouts and fans trying to project his future in the NFL.
Shough’s Production Pattern Littered With Red Flags, but Some Positives
While New Orleans sees potential, Shough’s history offers reasons for skepticism.
His tendency to transfer between schools could raise questions about how he handles adversity. If the fit in New Orleans isn’t perfect right away, it could be a concern. Plus, the fact that his best work came in just one season after seven years in college hints at some volatility. In short, there’s a risk the Saints are betting on a one-year wonder.
That said, Shough’s college totals — 59 touchdowns to 23 interceptions — suggest there’s a baseline of solid quarterback play. Some might argue he needed the right system to unlock his potential, and Louisville provided that late-career spark.
Of course, the underlying issue remains his age. Shough could be pushing 30 years old by the time his rookie contract is up. If he does hit, the Saints could find themselves needing a new long-term solution sooner than most teams prefer.
Still, there’s precedent. Bo Nix was the grizzled college veteran who led his team to the playoffs under Sean Payton. If the Saints are trying to replicate that formula, taking a swing on Shough makes sense. And according to PFSN metrics, they’ll need it to pay off as the team ranked just 22nd in Offense+ entering the offseason.
Will it work? Only time will tell, but there’s no denying the Saints took one of the most significant risks of the 2025 NFL Draft.