The endless deliberation surrounding Ty Simpson’s draft stock continues to intensify as the 2026 NFL Draft approaches fast. While some evaluators view him as one of the top quarterbacks in the class, others remain cautious about projecting him as an immediate NFL starter.
One of the biggest concerns revolves around his limited experience at the college level. That issue has now been highlighted strongly by ESPN analyst Matt Miller. And his warning could actually influence how teams approach Simpson on draft night.
Matt Miller Raises Doubts Over Ty Simpson’s NFL Readiness
Appearing on “The Rich Eisen Show,” Miller made it very clear that Simpson’s lack of starting experience is not just a minor concern; it’s potentially a major red flag for NFL teams. The Alabama QB started only 15 games in college after spending multiple years as a backup.
“I maintain it where No. 15’s accurate because that’s how many starts he had in college,” Miller said. “And that should scare everyone who wants their team to draft him, because there is zero precedent for a quarterback starting that few games in college and having success in the NFL, at least in the last 30 years. So that’s going to be the question mark.”
Miller’s point underscores a broader concern across the league that projecting QBs with limited reps can be risky in pro football, especially when historical success stories are scarce. While Simpson showed some high-end ability, the small sample size leaves teams with more questions than answers.
Miller did, however, acknowledge Simpson’s character and early promise, pointing to how his 2025 campaign began on a strong note before the Alabama offense regressed as a whole.
“He’s a great young man, Miller added. “He’s tough as heck. He had such a fantastic start last year, and then the wheels kind of fell off for that entire Alabama offense. So I’m rooting for Ty Simpson to prove me wrong.”
Despite the concerns, Simpson’s profile is far from lacking intrigue. His development curve at Alabama, after waiting behind other QBs, showed signs that he could grow into a high-level passer. PFSN’s scouting report highlights his polished mechanics and ability to process defenses.
“Ty Simpson’s sample size remains frustratingly small, but the Alabama passer took the NFL Draft world by storm with his quick ascent in 2025. Simpson waited his turn to start at Alabama, and at his best in 2025, that time developing appeared to have molded him into a clear Round 1 passer,” the report noted.
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From a statistical standpoint, Simpson delivered a solid 2025 season. According to the PFSN’s CFB QB Impact Metrics, he recorded an impact score of 85.4, ranking 25th overall with a B grade, reflecting strong but not elite performance.
On the PFSN Consensus Big Board, Simpson holds an 84.22 grade, placing him 46th overall, and is projected as a Round 2-3 selection, indicating that while he carries upside, teams may hesitate to invest a top-tier pick due to his limited experience.
Miller also framed his evaluation with humility, recalling a past scouting miss and expressing hope that Simpson proves him wrong in the long run.
“I had this great moment early in my career where Luke Kuechly came up to me at the Super Bowl and said, ‘Hey, I still remember the scouting report you wrote about me — you were wrong.’ You know what? I absolutely was. You’re going to be a Hall of Famer. I was way too low on you,” Miller continued.
“So you love those moments,” Miller added. “And I genuinely hope that Ty Simpson and I get to have that moment in 10 years where he says, ‘Hey buddy, you were wrong. Dan Orlovsky was right, and I’ve had a great career.’ And a little bit of a chip on the shoulder, maybe because someone’s lower on him than everyone else.”
As draft night approaches, Simpson represents one of the class’s most fascinating dilemmas. Teams must decide whether to go with his tools and upside or remain cautious due to his limited track record.
