Entering Week 16, 13 teams in the NFC still had some degree of chance to go the NFL postseason, with four remaining spaces available, two of which are Wild Card spaces. There were potentially 20 games that could impact the NFC Wild Card picture.
That is over 1,000,000 combinations of results (not including ties), and while there are not that many independent scenarios, there are still quite a few.
So, how did the Week 16 results affect the NFC Wild Card race? Let’s look at the current playoff picture in the NFC and break down some of the scenarios after Week 16.
What Is the NFC Wild Playoff Picture After Week 16?
The other Wild Card spot currently belongs to the Washington Commanders (10-5). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) are still in the hunt as well and will be paying close attention to next week’s Commanders-Falcons game.
The Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, and Arizona Cardinals were all eliminated from the playoffs in Week 16, and the Seattle Seahawks were eliminated from Wild Card contention (their only path is through the NFC West title).
What Were the NFC Wild Card Clinching Scenarios in Week 16?
The Packers clinched a Wild Card spot with their blowout win over the Saints on Monday Night Football. Even a tie would have been enough to clinch.
The Commanders could have clinched a playoff spot with the following scenarios, but the Falcons’ win over the New York Giants in Week 16 spoiled that possibility.
- WAS wins + ATL loses or ties + SEA loses or ties
- WAS wins + ATL loses or ties + LAR loses or ties
- WAS ties + ATL loses + ARI loses or ties + SEA loses + LAR loses or ties
- WAS ties + ATL loses + ARI loses or ties + SEA ties + LAR loses
What Are the NFC Wild Card Chances for Every Team?
The Commanders are in a fairly good position because they control their own destiny and can afford to lose a game and still make the playoffs. If Washington gets to 11 wins, then no one can surpass them.
Without diving into the realm of ties, losing their final two games would be bad news for the Commanders. At that point, their conference record would be stuck at 7-5, which might not be enough if the Falcons or Buccaneers end with nine or 10 wins with conference records of 7-5 or 8-4.
In two-team tiebreakers, the Commanders lost to the Buccaneers and play the Falcons in Week 17.
Things with the Rams, Buccaneers, and Falcons are additionally complicated because there is also the division to add to the mix.
If Tampa Bay or Atlanta end up at 10 wins and there is still a playoff spot available in the NFC, then things are looking good for both of them. They have tiebreaker advantages over the Packers (conference record), the Commanders (head-to-head), and the Rams on conference record.
The Rams could end up with a conference record of either 6-6 or 7-5. Los Angeles does not have many head-to-head wins that help them. Therefore, they are reliant on combinations of conference records, common opponents, and strength of victory.
For the Commanders, Buccaneers, Falcons, and Rams, the same logic largely applies to any ties at 9-8 as well.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
