No division is stacked with more contenders than the NFC West. While the NFC North has three teams with six or more wins, the NFC West has three teams with seven or more wins, with the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and San Francisco 49ers sitting at the top of the NFC playoff standings.
The Rams lead the NFC with an 8-2 record, and despite getting the edge in the tiebreaker over the Seahawks, they still have both Seattle and San Francisco on their tail as the season winds down. With the division so tight, let’s take a look at which franchise has the best chance to win the NFC West.
Who Has the Best Chance To Win the NFC West?
The NFC West leads the conference in the number of contenders. The top of the division was on display in Week 11 as the Rams hosted the Seahawks at SoFi Stadium with both franchises entering the game at 7-2.
Obviously, the biggest beneficiary of the Week 11 results was the Rams, who secured another win, this time a 21-19 divisional victory over the Seahawks, to move to 8-2 on the season. But more importantly, they gained the edge over the Seahawks in the postseason tiebreaker, holding the head-to-head advantage.
DIVISION DUB! pic.twitter.com/PtFZLtC0Bl
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) November 17, 2025
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Rams entered Week 11 with a 94.2% chance to make the playoffs and a 42.1% chance to win the NFC West. Following the win, Los Angeles saw its chances to make the playoffs rise to 97% while their chances to win the division climbed nearly 20% to 68.8%.
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Meanwhile, Seattle still sits at a respectable 7-3 record, and while they had a 95.3% chance of making the playoffs heading into the week, the loss only dropped their chances from just over 5% to 90.1%. The bigger drop was seen in their chances to win the division, as before the loss to the Rams, they had a 50.2% chance to win the playoffs, which dropped significantly with the loss to 27.8%.
As for the 49ers, they got to pile on the Arizona Cardinals, cruising to a 41-22 win. The 49ers’ season has been quite the rollercoaster as the franchise has watched playmaker after playmaker go down with an injury. Yet, they’ve found a way to win seven games to start the season and are at the top of the division with Los Angeles and Seattle.
Heading into Week 11, the 49ers had the lowest chance of making the playoffs among the three NFC West leaders, with a 68.7% chance of making the playoffs and just a 7.6% chance of winning the division. The win increased their chances of making the playoffs to 77.6%, and while their chance of winning the division jumped to 11.4%, the Rams’ Week 11 win practically puts it out of reach, barring a late-season collapse.