The NFC West has been the league’s most competitive division this season, with three teams already securing playoff spots. While the Seattle Seahawks currently lead the pack, the margin for error is razor-thin as the battle for the division crown heats up heading into the final two weeks.
NFC West Division Race: Who Holds The Edge?
The NFC West race tightened significantly in Week 16 when the Seattle Seahawks defeated the Los Angeles Rams in overtime, jumping into first place. Seattle now leads the division, while both the Rams and San Francisco 49ers sit two games back at 11–4, setting up a tense final two weeks.
According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, after the win over Carolina in Week 17, Seattle was the favorite to win the NFC West with a 67.70% chance to win the division.
However, after the 49ers won against the Bears, they now have a 46.70% chance to win the division, and the Seahawks (53.30%) no longer have an easy path.
Coming into Week 17, San Francisco had a 27.1% chance of winning the division, while the Rams sat at 19%.
-11 ON THE SACK.💥 THAT’S LAW @TankLawrence
📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/xzy98zdBwr
— x – Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 28, 2025
The Rams are travelling to Atlanta in Week 17, which will be the last game of the week, but they can no longer win the division.
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Seattle will clinch the division this week if either of the following happens:
- Seattle wins, and both the Rams and 49ers lose or tie
The Rams will be eliminated from NFC West contention if:
- They lose
- They tie, and Seattle wins
- They tie, and both Seattle and San Francisco tie
- They tie, and San Francisco wins
- Both Seattle and San Francisco win
Because the Rams play Monday night, they could be eliminated before kickoff if both the Seahawks and 49ers win on Sunday.
San Francisco is also facing elimination scenarios if:
- The 49ers lose, and Seattle wins or ties
- The 49ers tie, and Seattle wins
San Francisco must remain within one game of Seattle heading into Week 18, as the two teams meet in the finale, where the 49ers could complete a season sweep and win key tiebreakers.
Key Tiebreaker Outcomes Explained
If Seahawks and Rams finish 13–4, 49ers 12–5:
- Head-to-head between SEA and LAR: 1–1
- Division record decides:
- Rams win the division if Seattle loses to San Francisco in Week 18 (LAR 4–2 vs. SEA 3–3)
- If Seattle beats the 49ers but loses to Carolina, common opponents decide:
- Rams: 10–2
- Seahawks: 9–3
Three-way tie at 13–4:
- San Francisco wins the division based on the best combined head-to-head record among the three teams
In short, Seattle controls its destiny and can clinch as early as Week 17. San Francisco still has a clear path if it stays close and beats Seattle in Week 18. The Rams face the steepest climb and risk elimination before even taking the field this week.
