The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the standard in the NFC South each of the last four seasons. Even as a Wild Card team in 2020, they went on to win the Super Bowl. Could their run of dominance continue in 2025?
Since the Tom Brady era and now with Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay has reached the playoffs every year since 2020 — a stretch where no other NFC South team has joined them in the postseason.
A lack of consistent threats within the division has been a recurring trend, but that could change this year. Using data from the PFSN NFL Playoff Predictor, join us as we look at the current projections for the NFC South in 2025.
4) New Orleans Saints
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.6-10.4
- Division Win Probability: 5.90%
- Playoff Probability: 12.80%
- Super Bowl Probability: 0.10%
The New Orleans Saints put an end to their quarterback controversy, naming Spencer Rattler as their starter over second-round rookie Tyler Shough. Whether or not that will be the starting QB situation for all of 2025 remains to be seen, but there’s one clear takeaway regardless: New Orleans isn’t in an enviable position this year.
“Might be the worst Quarterback room in the entire NFL.”@dannykanell weighs in on the Saints’ QB situation. pic.twitter.com/Dv0uLcRCfy
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) August 18, 2025
Unproven quarterback play, a thin roster damaged by years of delaying an inevitable rebuild, and a first-year head coach in Kellen Moore are among factors placing the Saints in a tie with the Cleveland Browns for the lowest Super Bowl chances in PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor. They should be able to piece together some wins, but expecting them to win the NFC South in 2025 seems like a stretch.
3) Carolina Panthers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.9-10.1
- Division Win Probability: 7.90%
- Playoff Probability: 16.30%
- Super Bowl Probability: 0.30%
A strong finish to the 2024 season from Bryce Young, combined with winning two of their last three games, provides reason for the Carolina Panthers to be optimistic in 2025. They were active in upgrading their defense during the offseason, adding talent such as Patrick Jones II, Bobby Brown III, Tershawn Wharton, Nic Scourton, and Princely Umanmielen to their defensive line.
These upgrades should help Carolina improve in 2025, but they still don’t have a dynamic offensive roster. First-round pick Tetairoa McMillan should be helpful at wide receiver, but they lack proven weapons, and Young was overall rocky last season. If the passing game improves, the Panthers could make some noise in the Wild Card hunt. But if it doesn’t, they could be looking at a top-ten pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
2) Atlanta Falcons
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.5-8.5
- Division Win Probability: 24.90%
- Playoff Probability: 42.30%
- Super Bowl Probability: 1.50%
Things started great for the Atlanta Falcons last year, as they kicked the year off 6-3 with an explosive offense. They’d finish the season with just two more wins, dropping six of their remaining eight games. The slump led to Atlanta benching Kirk Cousins in favor of Michael Penix Jr., and the latter heads into 2025 as a first-time starting quarterback.
My biggest take away from training camp is that London to Penix is going to be special.
When Penix was asked a few months earlier if London was under appreciated around the league, he replied with “He won’t be after this year”
pic.twitter.com/taqSsCwzOV— Arkesh Ray (@arkeshrayyyy) August 14, 2025
Penix has a talented group of weapons to throw to, and he demonstrated encouraging flashes in his three starts in 2024. However, the Falcons’ defensive front remains a concern, and even after drafting both Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. this offseason, the group lacks a proven leader and lost stalwart veteran Grady Jarrett in free agency.
There’s a very real chance Atlanta comes out of the NFC South as the divisional champions, but there are too many moving pieces to consider them the favorites right now.
1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.1-6.9
- Division Win Probability: 61.30%
- Playoff Probability: 74.90%
- Super Bowl Probability: 6.70%
Interestingly enough, the Buccaneers have the highest projected win total in the NFC at 10.1, as well as the third-highest projected total in the entire NFL. Their 61.30% divisional odds also rank third in the league, giving them the highest percentage in their own conference. Though they’re not the favorites to make the Super Bowl out of the NFC, they’re still clearly expected to make a postseason appearance.
Tampa Bay returns many of its key contributors from its 10-7 season in 2024. With an explosive offense and a respectable defense, they should be considered the favorites to win the NFC South until proven otherwise. Todd Bowles has led his team to first-place finishes within the division in all three years he has been their head coach. PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor likes the odds he extends that streak to four.
