After a 5-1 start to the season, it seemed like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were on their way to another NFC South title. However, a 1-4 stretch since Week 7 has allowed the Carolina Panthers to crawl back into contention.
With both teams winning their Week 13 matchups, who has the best chance to win the division and make the playoffs?
Which NFC South Team Has the Best Chance To Win the Division?
Carolina, by far, had the biggest win of the three. Hosting what many think to be the best team in the league, the Los Angeles Rams, quarterback Bryce Young and the offense went toe-to-toe with veteran signal-caller Matthew Stafford and the Rams, coming out on top 31-28.
Young completed 15 of 20 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns, including a couple on fourth-down attempts. The win moves them to 7-6 amd a half game behind the Buccaneers heading into the bye week. Tampa Bay avoided disaster as the Arizona Cardinals applied some pressure late in Week 13. While they made it close, the Cardinals could not finish the comeback attempt as the Buccaneers won 20-17.
Tmac and the T is for Touchdown
Tetairoa McMillan x #ProBowlVote
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/fN5tchb342
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) November 30, 2025
The Atlanta Falcons would’ve had an outside chance of making a run at the division title. However, a 3-2 start was quickly undone by a five-game losing streak. While they beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 12, the New York Jets would hand them their eighth loss of the season after Jets kicker Nick Folk squeaked through a 56-yard field goal as New York won 27-24.
Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints, despite a late comeback attempt of their own, which included recovering an onside kick, saw their playoff hopes come to an end as the Miami Dolphins beat them 21-17
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Coming into Week 13, the Buccaneers had the highest chance of making the playoffs in the NFC South, according to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, at 66.2%. They also had the highest chance of winning the division at 65.4%. At .500 heading into Week 13, the Panthers still had decent odds to make the playoffs at 33.1% and a 31.9% chance to win the NFC South.
Those margins will get a lot slimmer after the Panthers’ surprising win over the Rams. The Buccaneers will have a chance to take a full-game lead over Carolina, as the Panthers will take a bye in Week 14 and Tampa Bay will face the Saints.
With the conclusion of the 1 p.m. ET window in Week 13, the Panthers saw their chances to make the playoffs jump to 39.2%. They also saw their chances of winning the NFC South rise to 36%. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s chances dropped, likely due to Carolina’s win. The Buccaneers’ chances to make the playoffs dropped to 65.7% while their chance to win the NFC South fell to 63.7%.
Carolina will be huge New Orleans fans during their bye week as a Saints win over Tampa Bay in Week 14 would bring the two franchises even atop the NFC South.