The NFC North has become a much clearer picture in recent weeks, and the division is down to two potential contenders, but it hasn’t been clinched yet.
Let’s take a closer look at how the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Detroit Lions stack up in the NFC North and which teams have surviving playoff aspirations.
NFC North Week 17 Playoff Scenarios: Bears Take Decisive Control
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Bears have a 93.1% chance of winning the NFC North. The Packers are the Bears’ only other competition, with a slim 6.9% chance of overtaking Chicago and claiming the division crown.
The Lions were still in the division hunt as of last week, but with their loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, they’ve now been eliminated as a division contender. Moreover, after their loss in Week 17, they can no longer make the playoffs. Due to Detroit’s loss, the Packers have secured a playoff spot.
Assuming the most likely outcome occurs, and the Bears take the NFC North title, the only way the Lions could have jumped the Packers for the final Wild Card spot is if the Lions had won out and the Packers had lost out. The PFSN FPM gave this outcome a 4.9% chance of happening.
If the Packers win out and the Bears lose out, Green Bay can indeed leapfrog its rivals in the NFC North, but the Bears have a favorable chance to win against both of their final opponents.
In particular, Chicago’s season finale at home against the Lions looms large, after the Lions throttled Chicago 52-21 earlier in the year. But this isn’t the same Lions team from September, nor is this the same Bears team. The Bears have meshed and have gotten hot, while the Lions have lost momentum, partly due to crippling injuries, and now have nothing to play for.
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With Caleb Williams playing the best football of his young career and Dennis Allen’s defense generating havoc and creating turnovers at the highest clip in the league, there’s reason to believe Chicago can win at least one of their two remaining games, especially since the Lions are already eliminated.
Remaining 2025 Schedule for NFC North Teams
Below, you’ll find the remaining schedules for each NFC North team in the NFL Playoff race, along with each team’s chance of winning, according to the PFSN FPM. The Bears have the inside track to the NFC North title, but they also have the toughest road ahead.
Chicago Bears’ Remaining Games
- Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers (50.5%)
- Week 18: vs. Detroit Lions (54.4%)
Detroit Lions’ Remaining Games
- Week 18: at Chicago Bears (45.6%)
Green Bay Packers’ Remaining Games
- Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens (58.2%)
- Week 18: at Minnesota Vikings (54.4%)
The outlook for Green Bay as an NFC North contender, ironically, depends on whether or not the Packers contribute to eliminating the Lions in Week 17.
Division rivals will always relish the chance to play spoiler against Playoff teams, but the Lions would have been much more motivated to win in Week 18 if their Playoff chances were still alive. Since they’re out, and Chicago still needs to secure the NFC North, the Bears might have more emotional ammunition to outlast Detroit.
The Packers have the easiest remaining schedule by percentages, but none of the NFC North contenders have a walk in the park from this point forward. The Bears and Packers have already made the playoffs, but it’s up to each team to seal the deal in the coming days.
