While the New Orleans Saints looked cooked after a Week 13 loss dropped them to 5-7, back-to-back wins have put the club back in the thick of the playoff race. With the NFC South title or a Wild Card berth within the Saints’ reach, New Orleans controls its own playoff destiny heading into Week 16.
With the assistance of PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine how the Saints’ postseason scenarios break down and determine the team’s most likely path to the playoffs.
Saints Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 21 before Thursday Night Football. The results of this week’s games will be added below through Monday.
After all the games in Week 16, the Saints are now the No. 11 seed in the NFC.
Thursday Night Football Update
Rams (8-7) defeated Saints (7-8)
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
Seahawks (8-7) defeated Titans (5-10)
Packers (7-8) defeated Panthers (2-13)
Lions (11-4) defeated Vikings (7-8)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Bears (6-9) defeated Cardinals (3-12)
Christmas Day Update
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Saints entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
New Orleans Saints’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 16
The Saints defeated the New York Giants on Sunday, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers managed a road win against the Green Bay Packers. Both clubs are now 7-7, but Tampa Bay has the edge in the NFC South, thanks to their Week 4 head-to-head victory over New Orleans.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons were upset by the Carolina Panthers last week, dropping them to 6-8 and clouding their chances of securing a playoff berth.
How does the division stack up entering Week 16? ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Saints a 41% chance of making the postseason in some capacity and a 28% chance of winning the NFC South.
The Buccaneers have better odds — the FPI estimates Baker Mayfield and Co. have a 67% chance to secure the division title and a 78% chance to get into the postseason. But given that New Orleans and Tampa Bay will square off again this season, the NFC South and the Wild Card race are still up in the air with three weeks remaining.
Saints’ Week 16 Playoff Scenarios
The good news for the Saints is that they control their own destiny. With a Week 17 rematch against the Buccaneers on its slate, New Orleans will grab the NFC South title if they win out.
But first, the Saints have to take care of business against the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football. A win against Sean McVay’s club would give New Orleans a one-game advantage over the Rams in the NFC Wild Card race, a head-to-head playoff tiebreaker over L.A., and improve its postseason chances to roughly 75%.
If the Saints lose on TNF, they’ll cede ground in the Wild Card competition, while their playoff odds would slip to just 15%.
Even if New Orleans falls to Los Angeles, its playoff hopes are not dead. While the Saints have a decent shot at a Wild Card berth, most of their playoff chances are wrapped up in their ability to win the NFC South. That honor will likely come down to Week 17’s NO-TB game.
While other scenarios exist, that Week 17 matchup could mean everything for the Saints concerning the division title. The only way New Orleans can win the NFC South without defeating Tampa Bay in Week 17 is by winning its other two games (at LAR, vs. ATL), while the Bucs lose out (vs. JAX, at CAR).
Things are even more complicated for the Saints in the Wild Card race. Part of a mass of 7-7 clubs that include the Minnesota Vikings, Rams, and Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans will be carefully watching results around the league this week.
In the Saints’ ideal Wild Card scenario, they’ll beat the Rams, the Vikings lose to the Detroit Lions, the Seahawks fall to the Tennessee Titans, the Falcons lose to the Indianapolis Colts, and the 6-8 Packers drop a game to the Panthers.
MORE: New Orleans Saints Depth Chart
In that case, New Orleans’ chances of entering the playoffs in some capacity would surpass 80%. Even if the Bucs win in Week 16 to retain their NFC South lead, the Saints would exit Sunday’s action as the sixth seed in the conference.
But what about the flip side? If the Saints lose to the Rams, and the rest of the NFC’s Wild Card hopefuls all win, New Orleans will see its playoff odds slip to roughly 20%. Their postseason path will almost entirely be dependent on a division title.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!Â
