The New England Patriots are coming off their worst season in over 30 seasons and no longer have legendary head coach Bill Belichick to lead them out of their mess.
In a division as competitive as the AFC East, exactly what should fans expect from the Patriots in 2024?
Here’s the outlook for the Patriots this season.
New England Patriots Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Super Bowl Odds: +18000
AFC Odds: +10000
AFC East Division Odds: +2500
Win Total:Â 4.5 – Over (-125)/Under (+105)
To Make/Miss Playoffs: Make (+900)/Miss (-1800)
Patriots Offense
The Patriots were the only team in the NFL that ranked in the bottom seven of the league in both rushing offense and passing offense last season, so there’s room for improvement just about everywhere.
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The quarterback play seemed to be the most important thing to address, so New England drafted Drake Maye No. 3 overall last April. The Patriots also signed veteran Jacoby Brissett to provide some mentorship for Maye until he’s ready to go.
Not only did the Patriots not have a 700-yard rusher, they also do not return a single player that had at least 50 receptions last season.
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson did play well over his final four games — 78 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry — before an ankle injury cost him the last five games of the season.
Patriots Defense
The Patriots ranked in the top 10 in total yards allowed last season, the fourth time in the last five seasons they ranked in the top 10 in total defense. However, the Patriots were also 15th in scoring defense, their worst ranking in scoring defense since 2011 (also 15th).
One Betting Trend to Know
When you win only four games, there aren’t many positive trends to fall back on. To that end, the Patriots were just 2-8-1 against the spread last season outside of their division.
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And to open this season, New England will play three of its first four games — and five of its first seven games — outside the AFC East.
Best Bet for Patriots in 2024
If the Patriots could manage only four wins with Belichick as their coach last season, it’s too inconceivable to expect a drop-off in the first year under head coach Jerod Mayo.
On the other hand, it’s worth noting that the only time New England finished with four or fewer wins in consecutive seasons was a four-year stretch from 1967 to 1990.
But at some point, the Patriots are going to throw Maye into the fire. And although Houston Texans’ quarterback C.J. Stroud may have raised the bar for rookie quarterbacks with his 2023 season, the general belief is still that rookies need to take some lumps as they learn on the job.
Despite history not being on my side, I would still take the under on 4.5 wins at +105 odds.
