After an outstanding rookie season blessed with elite volume, Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris found himself in a full-blown timeshare last year with Jaylen Warren.
The Pittsburgh organization has spent the entire offseason trying to retool the offense by hiring a new offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith), bringing in two different starting-caliber quarterbacks, and sinking three high draft picks into the offensive line.
After the Steelers’ plethora of offseason moves, is Harris’ fantasy football outlook trending in the right direction heading into the 2024 NFL season?
Najee Harris’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Harris has to be one of the most interesting fantasy football studies of the 2024 season — mainly because his trends appear to be all over the place. If you focus on just his fantasy production, Harris’ profile appears to be trending in the wrong direction.
Harris’ Fantasy Production
- 2021: 1,200 rushing yards, 74 receptions, 467 receiving yards, 10 total TDs (RB3)
- 2022: 1,038 rushing yards, 41 receptions, 229 receiving yards, 10 total TDs (RB14)
- 2023: 1,035 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 170 receiving yards, 8 total TDs (RB23)
It’s never a great sign when a player’s rushing yards, receptions, and receiving yards have all dropped in three consecutive years with no injuries involved. Yet, Harris actually posted the most efficient season of his career last season with 4.1 yards per carry. This likely has to do with his 2.1 yards after contact per attempt (tying his career high) and finishing second in the league with 30 broken tackles.
One would like to think a renewed commitment to running the ball with an offensive coordinator well renowned for run-heavy schemes, improved quarterback play, and an offensive line that has Troy Fautanu, Zach Frazier, and Mason McCormick potentially making a profoundly positive instant impact means we should be pretty excited about Harris in 2024, right?
Well, remember that timeshare I mentioned earlier? Yeah, that’s going to be tough to ignore when you take a closer look at the numbers.
Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 Running Back Stats
- Najee Harris: 284 total touches, 1,205 total yards, 8 TDs (RB23)
- Jaylen Warren: 210 total touches, 1,154 total yards, 4 TDs (RB22)
You don’t have to be a math major to figure out why Warren’s role is so problematic to Harris’ fantasy value. Warren’s 61 receptions to Harris’ 29 is a huge discrepancy in full-PPR formats, which gives Warren a higher weekly floor while making Harris a bit more touchdown-dependent.
Warren’s 5.5 yards per touch blew Harris’ 4.2 mark out of the water by a wide margin as well, making him the most efficient back with the more valuable fantasy role in full-PPR formats.
Not to mention, remember when I brought up Harris’ 30 broken tackles last year? Well Warren finished with just three fewer broken tackles on 74 fewer touches.
Quite frankly, Warren would feel like the runaway fantasy option if not for Harris doubling up Warren’s carries inside the 5-yard line last year (8 to 4). That suggests Harris is the clear preferred option when Pittsburgh gets in the red zone, which could play a bigger role if the offense generates more scoring opportunities with either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields under center this year.
To be fair, Harris did finish last year on a tear with a pair of 110+ rushing performances and three total touchdowns on 53 carries over the final two games of the season. However, I’m not sure that’s a big enough sample size to project into 2024.
Harris’ ADP currently sits at No. 65 overall (RB24 off the board), which is ironically just three spots higher than Warren on this list.
Personally, I would rather have the back in a timeshare with the significantly higher amount of work in the passing game, which makes me lean Warren over Harris entering fantasy drafts this year.
Additionally, Harris is being drafted in the same range as Raheem Mostert, Zamir White, and Ladd McConkey in the sixth round. I do find Harris to be a nice draft-day bargain as a low-end RB2 in this range, but his fantasy upside will have a fairly low ceiling as long as Warren is in the picture.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Analysis for Najee Harris
Harris is a good example of the growth of the fantasy industry. If we took Harris’ hard-nosed profile back 15 years, he’d be exactly the type of running back we’d overextend on. Back then, volume and role were prioritized even more, driving essentially our every decision.
We wouldn’t have struggled to overlook Harris’ significant dip in involvement in the passing game (74 catches as a rookie, 41 in 2022, and just 29 a season ago). The fact that his target count has failed to meet his catch total from the previous season in consecutive years wouldn’t have crossed our minds.
Digging deeper into stats that weren’t as available back then – Harris is averaging roughly 2.0 yards per carry before and after contact through three seasons. Those are viable rates, but nothing special — that is how Harris is now viewed. His volume has been viewed as his saving grace and with it fading, we might be nearing the time for a complete fade.
Harris is being drafted in the RB20 range, a neighborhood that Aaron Jones and Rhamondre Stevenson both live in. To be honest, I’m targeting the onesie positions around Round 6 (Evan Engram, Joe Burrow, or Kyler Murray) instead of forcing it with the running back position.
That said, if the way the draft plays out puts my back against the wall and a running back is something I need (never be too proud – draft strategies can go sideways in a hurry and your ability to adjust mid-draft is critical), it’s Jones in this tier. The newest member of the Minnesota Vikings has seen his scoring rates dip of late, but his role as the lead man in an offense that is going to need to run the ball effectively is unquestioned.
Jaylen Warren is, at worst, Robin to Harris’ Batman, and those roles could easily flip with time. Even if Jones struggles, I’d be very surprised if Ty Chandler makes this anything close to a committee, let alone taking over the featured role.
Harris has played in all 51 regular season games available to him during his three seasons and versatility holds value, but less than it did in the past. Missed games are a pain, but with so many offenses using multiple RBs, the number of replacement options today dwarfs what was available even five years ago.