Monday Night Football is here, and so are fantasy football competitions. If you’re competing in NFL DFS tournaments or 50/50 contests, here are our two recommended lineups and picks for tonight’s Week 16 matchup between the Saints and Dolphins. Each set of picks reflects the most likely game scripts. As always, these DFS lineups are based on FanDuel pricing.
Top NFL DFS picks for Monday Night Football Week 16 | Lineup No. 1
This DFS lineup assumes a comfortable run-heavy offensive scheme for the Saints, likely resulting in 35+ touches for their top two running backs. It also assumes the Dolphins will be stymied by the Saints’ strong run defense, opting instead to generate offense through the air.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints ($16,500)
The most expensive option on today’s slate also has the highest upside. Ignore his struggles last week against the Buccaneers. Yes, Alvin Kamara hasn’t been the same this season, largely because defenses have been able to stack the box against him, knowing New Orleans’ passing game isn’t what it used to be.
That said, Kamara is this team’s focal point for a reason. He has 6 touchdowns in his last six games and is a formidable (and underutilized) threat in the passing game. If you have a DFS MVP slot, Kamara belongs there.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins ($13,000)
Don’t overthink this. Few rookie receivers have been this good out of the gate. Jaylen Waddle is the WR23 and 13th in targets in only 13 games. His 74.8% catch rate is the eighth-best among wideouts with at least 25 targets this year.
Also, he’s been utilized heavily regardless of the game’s score. When leading, he’s earned a 25-298-0 receiving line. When tied, he’s racked up a 34-297-3 line. Trailing? He holds a 27-254-1 mark. In other words, whatever you think might happen tonight, Waddle will be out there throughout the game. That’s what you want in a DFS player.
DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins ($10,500)
When healthy, DeVante Parker is one of the best No. 2 receivers in the AFC. Still somehow only 28 years old, he has displayed big-play ability throughout his career. His offensive snap count is consistently as high as or higher than Waddle’s.
Parker’s 8 targets per game reinforce the value Miami places on him. The only big knock is his low career catch rate (58.6%). This season it’s a slightly improved 60.7%. He’s no longer the No. 1 receiver we saw in Miami for years, but Parker is a consistent threat for top-30 WR production.
Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins ($10,000)
Mike Gesicki last scored in Week 7. Additionally, 4 of his last 5 touchdowns have come inside the 7-yard line. For some reason, he’s not getting the same attention this year — a season in which he has only 2 scores compared to the 11 he racked up in his two previous campaigns. But he’s enjoying career-high marks in targets, receptions, and yards per game this season.
Gesicki’s 65.3% catch rate is the highest since his 2018 rookie year. The fact is, if not for his scoring drought, Gesicki would be a top-five fantasy TE instead of the TE9. At some point, his TD opportunities will align with his overall production.
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints ($9,500)
Kamara can’t do it all on his own. Mark Ingram earned 11 touches last week, which is about what we should expect tonight while running behind his younger and more talented backfield teammate. What makes Ingram intriguing tonight is not his rushing ability — the Dolphins’ elite run defense should hold him in check.
Instead, we should recognize Ingram’s receiving ability throughout his career, including 25 catches for 162 yards in his last eight games. Furthermore, 2 of his last 3 touchdowns have come at the 1-yard line. He’s a fairly cheap bet for 40-50 total yards and a score.
Top NFL DFS picks for Monday Night Football Week 16 | Lineup No. 2
This DFS lineup assumes a similar game script but with slight lineup tweaks based on different potential outcomes. In this lineup, the Saints’ untested rookie QB outperforms expectations as a rusher and a passer.
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Kamara would still be in the DFS MVP slot, and Waddle and Parker would remain in this lineup as well. The following are the two additions, replacing Mike Gesicki and Mark Ingram.
Ian Book, QB, New Orleans Saints ($12,000)
Experts are warning people that Ian Book will be a bust tonight, pointing to a bad preseason debut he had against the Ravens. Who cares? Taysom Hill played just as poorly that game. Simply put, in a season when Jets QB Mike White came out of nowhere to generate one of the greatest QB debuts in NFL history, no one knows what Book will do.
What we do know is that he was a very capable rusher at Notre Dame, collecting more than 1,500 yards on the ground while throwing for nearly 9,000 yards. If he plays like a less experienced version of Taysom Hill, it could be enough to make him one of tonight’s top fantasy performers.
Nick Vannett, TE, New Orleans Saints ($7,000)
We have $8,000 left. Tre’Quan Smith and Lil’Jordan Humphrey are available. But Nick Vannett seems like a reasonable bet, especially with TE Adam Trautman on the COVID list. Vannett should be in line for 4-6 targets and could earn a couple more if things break right.
I like that his last 5 TDs have come from 11 yards out or less. Vannett is an experienced tight end helping a rookie QB in a talent-depleted receiving corps. It’s a good combination.
