Minnesota Vikings record prediction 2022: Odds, props, and picks

We examine the Minnesota Vikings' record prediction, projected win totals, prop bets, and their odds to win the division, conference, and Super Bowl in 2023. 

The Minnesota Vikings enter the 2022 season under new head coach Kevin O’Connell. Despite the Vikings ending last year with a disappointing 8-9 record, O’Connell and the current Vikings regime decided to bring back the majority of the roster. Oddsmakers are expecting the Vikings to challenge for a Wild Card berth in 2022.

Let’s examine the Vikings’ current record prediction, projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds to win the division, conference, and Super Bowl in 2023.

All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of July 27 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

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Minnesota Vikings record prediction 2022

Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for all of the Vikings’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, the Vikings are projected as favorites in nine games, underdogs in five, and a push in three. If the season matches those predictions, the Vikings will finish with a 9-5-3 record following Week 18 of the 2022 season.

The 2021 Vikings had similar expectations but succumbed to injuries as the season progressed. Star runnning back Dalvin Cook was too much of the team’s identity, so when he missed four games, the offense stagnated. The defense slipped as Anthony Barr missed six games and was relatively ineffective in the 11 he played.

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A solid draft class and new staff can help get more out of this talented roster. Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen also fall somewhere on the superstar and above-average starter spectrum. The defense has a promising front seven and more talent on the back end of the unit.

The Vikings face the 19th-hardest schedule of any team. The NFC North isn’t an intimidating division, but early road games against Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Miami can swing their season.

Vikings odds, picks, and props

Now we know the sportsbooks prediction for the Vikings on a week-by-week basis. Let’s take a look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, the conference, and the Super Bowl.

  • Vikings win total: 9 (over -115, under -105)
  • Vikings to make the playoffs: Yes/No (-110)
  • NFC North winner: +265
  • NFC winner: 20-to-1
  • Super Bowl winner: 45-to-1

The Vikings were already a near playoff team in 2021 despite Mike Zimmer’s message growing stale, a running game that faltered without Cook, and a defense that was far too inconsistent to win with. The NFC is down right now. It’s tough luck that Minnesota just happens to play Green Bay twice a year, and the Packers have won 13 games in three straight seasons.

General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah had a solid offseason even as he had limited resources to add talent to the roster. After the signing of former Packer Za’Darius Smith, Danielle Hunter expressed his excitement about having a legitimate pass-rushing threat across from him this season. Minnesota lacked a true complement to Hunter in 2021, which led to many problems for the unit.

The secondary will also be improved with first-round safety Lewis Cine and second-round cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. in line to play early on. Veterans Harrison Smith and Patrick Peterson are also entrenched as starters.

With Chicago and Detroit rebuilding, the Vikings have a clear shot at the No. 2 spot in the North. The biggest question entering the season is how high their ceiling is because their floor looks as high as any Wild Card competitor.

Vikings MVP odds and player props

Barring an unforeseen breakout by Cousins or the Vikings’ defense suddenly becoming a top-five unit, this team is not likely to produce an NFL MVP in 2022. But their array of playmakers gives us a wide variety of player props to jump on. Plus, O’Connell has the potential to win NFL Coach of the Year in 2022 as a first-year coach.

Below are the prop bets we found most likely to hit in 2022, as well as the MVP odds for the Vikings’ biggest stars. Few offenses have this much proven star power, and these props reflect their history of success.

  • MVP
    Kirk Cousins 50-to-1
  • Offensive Player of the Year
    Justin Jefferson 20-to-1
  • Most regular-season receiving yards
    Justin Jefferson +800
  • Most regular-season receptions
    Justin Jefferson +600
  • Most regular-season passing yards
    Kirk Cousins +1800
  • Most regular-season rushing yards
    Dalvin Cook +1000
  • Kirk Cousins regular-season passing yards
    Over/Under 4,200.5 (-110)
  • Dalvin Cook regular-season rushing yards
    Over/Under 1,150.5 (-110)
  • Justin Jefferson regular-season receiving yards
    Over/Under 1,350.5 (-115)

There’s not much value on Cousins’ MVP odds for good reason. Soon to turn 34 with a reputation for not being good enough, it’s hard to see him elevating beyond his career norm and into the elite category. Also, unless you think Jefferson is in line to go above and beyond his incredible 2021 season, it’s easy to see why he’s also not a favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year. We have better plays elsewhere unless you want to sprinkle a partial unit on Jefferson.

However, Jefferson’s ability to lead the league in key categories is more intriguing. Cooper Kupp remains his biggest threat and other top play. With Allen Robinson and Cam Akers primed to be forces on the Rams’ offense this season, Jefferson can win these crowns and hit the over on his prop bets.

Cousins’ props are also much more intriguing. He was ninth in passing yards last year and trailed Tom Brady by 1,100 yards. Even if Brady falls back as I’d expect, Cousins would need to average almost 30 yards more per game to compete with the other top passers. I don’t see that prop making a ton of sense.

Even if he doesn’t have league-leading upside, the Vikings ran the 18th-most pass-heavy offense in 2021. Expect that number to increase a bit. There’s simply too much talent for O’Connell to continue running the offense through Cook as previous coordinators did in Minnesota. Cousins has had issues in clutch moments throughout his career, but his time in Minnesota has been stellar efficiency-wise.

Few other quarterbacks can point towards a 68.3% completion rate, 5.8% touchdown rate, and 1.7% interception rate over the last four years. Cousins is also a slam dunk to throw for 4,200.5 or more yards based on his career tendencies and surrounding cast strength.

Vikings 2022 picks

The Vikings will be a better team in 2022 than in 2021, but their win line was well-set. Had they been slated to host more swing games instead of traveling to their tougher out-of-division foes, the over would be more attractive. I like the Vikings to make the playoffs but with nine wins.

The postseason awards will be tough for even this group of premier playmakers to win if the team doesn’t overachieve. I don’t love the return on the award props, so instead, I’ll take the over for the individual achievement props. Oddsmakers went low with their projections.

Notably, we’re getting great value on Cook’s 1,150.5 rushing line. He eclipsed that number in only 13 games last year despite the offense cutting his carries down three touches per game. Cook has been a sure thing to miss a few games each year, but the only way he won’t go over this meager total is if he sustains a significant injury that keeps him out more than four games.

We can pair our optimism on Jefferson’s output in the form of him winning the receiving yards crown. We might as well take the over on his 1,350.5-yard line as well. There’s no way he has the most yards without clearing the over.

1u: Vikings to make the playoffs (-110)

1u: Jefferson most regular-season receiving yards (+800)

1u: Jefferson over 1,350.5 receiving yards (-115)

1u: Cousins over 4,200.5 passing yards (-110)

1u: Cook over 1,150.5 rushing yards (-110)

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