Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams’ career has consisted of ups and downs. He’s only averaged 9.2 PPR fantasy points per game in 56 active games. Quarterback Justin Herbert’s breakout rookie season has many fantasy football managers optimistic about Williams’ 2021 season outlook — is the wideout a priority at his current ADP?
Mike Williams’ fantasy outlook for 2021
Williams has only averaged 4.7 targets, 2.7 receptions, 45 receiving yards, and 72.6 receiving air yards per game in his career. He surpassed 1,000 receiving yards during the 2019 season, catching 49 of 90 targets for 1,001 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.
The veteran receiver was unable to replicate that production last season. Williams caught 48 of 85 targets for 756 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. This was surprising considering Herbert’s rookie season production. The Offensive Rookie of the Year threw for 4,336 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
Wide receiver Keenan Allen (27%), tight end Hunter Henry (17%), and running back Austin Ekeler (17%) amassed massive target shares last season. Herbert averaged 40 pass attempts per game in 2020 — this trend could continue in 2021. The Chargers’ second-year QB is capable of supporting three fantasy-relevant players.
Herbert should continue to improve as an NFL quarterback in his second season. This bodes well for Williams and the other receivers in Los Angeles. Allen is projected to lead the team in targets and command the opponent’s top cornerbacks.
The departure of Henry also provides Williams with an opportunity to see more targets in 2021. A new addition to the Chargers’ coaching staff also helps to paint a sunny outlook for Williams.
The arrival of Joe Lombardi
Former Saints quarterbacks coach Joe Lombardi will be the Chargers’ new offensive coordinator in 2021. He mentioned to the media that Williams would fill the “X” receiver role, the same role that receiver Michael Thomas had in the Saints’ offense. Thomas has averaged 9.4 targets per game in his career. Unlike Thomas, Williams doesn’t excel at making contested catches.
It’s unlikely that Williams will command that high of a target share, but it does show that Lombardi will make sure he’s a key component of the offense in 2021. Josh Palmer, Jalen Guyton, and Tyron Johnson project for around 90 combined targets.
Don’t expect to see Williams suddenly running a high number of short and intermediate routes. Expectations are that Williams will feature in the vertical passing game. Williams has averaged 15.4 receiving air yards per target in his career and could lead the Chargers in receiving air yards in 2021.
The Chargers’ offense should continue to be upbeat this season. Williams is in a position to have a career year if he’s relatively healthy for the entire season catching passes from Herbet. He provides fantasy managers a high floor, but how high is Williams’ ceiling?
Fantasy projection
Williams projects for around 100 targets, 60 receptions, 900 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns in 2021. His ceiling is even higher if Allen misses time. Williams has only played three games with Allen in his NFL career. He’s accumulated 26 targets, 17 receptions, 238 receiving yards, and 4 total touchdowns (3 receiving plus 1 rushing) in those games.
Mike Williams’ ADP
Williams is often available in the ninth round of 12-team fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker. This trend is also similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats, such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Williams has an ADP of 99.11. His current ADP is the lowest of the lot on Fleaflicker at 116.5.
Should you draft Williams in 2021?
Absolutely. Williams has only exceeded 100+ receiving yards four times in his career. He’s in a good position to add to that number in 2021. Williams is entering a contract year, and per Jeremy Fowler of ESPN, he is unlikely to sign an extension with the Chargers. He is an excellent WR3 or WR4 for your fantasy team.