Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams is coming off the first fantasy-relevant season of his career. Prior to last year, the former seventh overall pick was an annual disappointment. After his strong 2021 season, the Chargers extended Williams for three years. Now clearly part of the team’s long-term plans, what is Williams’ fantasy football outlook in 2022, and should managers target him at his ADP in fantasy drafts?
Mike Williams’ fantasy outlook for 2022
Williams posted just 95 receiving yards as a rookie. When a rookie fails to record at least roughly 500 receiving yards, his odds of ever mattering plummet. Williams bucked the trend by remaining relevant in the NFL over his next three seasons, but he certainly didn’t belong anywhere near fantasy lineups.
Williams averaged 11.1 PPR fantasy points per game in 2018. That number declined each of the next two seasons. Williams averaged 10.8 ppg in 2019 and 10.2 ppg in 2020.
After completely fading Williams for the first four years of his career, I was actually very much in on him entering the 2021 season. Justin Herbert was coming off a fantastic rookie season, and the Chargers have a very consolidated offense with Williams, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler completely dominating touches. Those three combined to handle 53.4% of the Chargers’ 1,097 opportunities last season.
I wasn’t the only one in on Williams, though. Williams was one of the more popular breakout candidates last season, which is unique considering how unproductive he was to start his career.
Through the first month or so of the season, it was going quite well. Williams averaged 23.2 ppg, trailing only Cooper Kupp in wide receiver scoring. He was well on his way to being a league winner. Then, beginning in Week 6, he reverted back to the same guy he had been his entire career. Williams averaged just 11.9 ppg over the remainder of the season.
After posting two 20+ point games and two 30+ point games over the first three weeks, Williams only reached double-digit fantasy points five more times in the season. And that’s including his 26.7 point Week 18, which doesn’t count in fantasy football.
The thing with Williams is despite his career being overwhelmingly more bad than good, his start to last season proved that he has a very high ceiling. He just needs to find a way to get there more consistently. The Chargers clearly believe in him, or they wouldn’t have paid him $60 million to hang around. Is this the year Williams finally puts it all together for a full season?
How the Chargers’ depth chart impacts Mike Williams’ fantasy projection for the season
Williams was a black hole in fantasy lineups for much of the 2021 season. While he won you a couple of matchups early, his hot start made him impossible to bench. By the time you figured it out, he had already buried your weekly upside four times. Then, you probably benched him in Week 11, watched him explode for 20.7 points against the Steelers, and thrust him back into your lineup the following week for another dude. He was incredibly frustrating to roster from Week 6 onward.
With that said, Williams is going to draw me in one more time. It really is ironic given how down I was on him as a prospect and poor of a pick I viewed him to be in 2017. But opinions can and should change based on new information.
The Chargers have a consolidated passing game
Once again, the Chargers have a consolidated offense. Allen is still the guy, even at 30 years old, but there’s room for both of these guys considering how little the Chargers have behind them. Jalen Guyton and Josh Palmer are capable WR3/4s, but neither is expected to command more than an 8-12% target share, at best (unless one clearly surpasses the other).
Ekeler will be third on this team in target share, but there’s plenty of room for all three of them. The Chargers proved as much last season. With an improved offensive line and Herbert continuing to improve each year, this could be the season the Chargers put it all together as a team. If that happens, Williams has legitimate WR1 upside.
I don’t expect Williams to finish as a WR1, but he should hopefully be more consistent than he was in 2021. He will still disappear at times, but so does just about every wide receiver. Despite failing more than he succeeded last season, Williams still averaged 15.4 ppg and almost finished as a WR1. If he does that again, with the spike weeks being a bit lower and a few of the floor weeks being a bit higher, he will be one of the best values in 2022 fantasy football drafts.
Williams’ ADP for 2022
Williams’ ADP sits around 50th overall in PPR. He’s going off the board in the WR20 region. For those of you who recall him going inside the top 36 overall in Best Ball drafts, it’s not the same in seasonal leagues. This largely matches how our analysts view him. Williams is just inside the top 20 at the position and the top 50 overall in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings.
Williams is a viable pick at his ADP. He’s not necessarily my favorite pick, but the ceiling outcome is a WR1 at a mid-to-low WR2 price. Allen is 30 years old. It wouldn’t be completely shocking to see Williams overtake him as Herbert’s preferred target. If that happens, Williams will almost certainly outperform his ADP.
Regardless, at worst, Williams should be a volatile boom/bust WR2. He’s a fine pick in the late-fourth/early-fifth round of fantasy drafts.
