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    Michael Pittman Jr. or Josh Downs? Fantasy Start/Sit Advice for the Colts’ WRs’ Matchup in Week 5

    With Joe Flacco set to start for the Colts, who should fantasy managers opt for between Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs?

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    The Indianapolis Colts have fielded a frustratingly inconsistent passing offense in 2024, but they may have finally found stability without their starting quarterback.

    With Joe Flacco likely to make his first start, what does that mean for Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs in fantasy football this week?

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    Should You Start Michael Pittman Jr. or Josh Downs in Week 5?

    In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings give Pittman Jr. the decisive edge. His projected 13.4 PPR points include six receptions for 60 yards, while Downs is projected for 8.1 PPR points.

    The actual gap between the two isn’t as large as it seems, as Downs is operating from a much smaller sample after missing the first two games. But Pittman Jr. is indeed the superior option this week due to his superior downfield yardage potential, though both are startable as long as Flacco is the quarterback.

    Pittman Jr. and Downs’ Fantasy Outlook this Week

    The best news for both is that Anthony Richardson was downgraded to doubtful on Saturday.

    While Richardson still represents the Colts’ future, his down-to-down inconsistency was maddening for fantasy managers rostering Indy’s pass catchers. With Flacco under center for most of last week’s win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Colts set season-highs in completion percentage (63.3%), pass yards (225) and EPA per dropback (0.34).

    Even better, 73% of Flacco’s passes went to wide receivers last week. Among starting quarterbacks, only Daniel Jones (75%) has targeted wide receivers at a higher rate this season. That bodes well for both Pittman Jr. and Downs serving as viable fantasy producers.

    The main reason for ranking Pittman Jr. higher boils down to his big-play ability. Pittman Jr. has an 11.1 aDOT, while Downs’ aDOT is at 5.3. Last week, Pittman Jr. had three receptions of 20+ yards, tied for the second-most by any player in a game this season (Dallas Goedert had four catches of 20+ yards in Week 4 vs the New Orleans Saints). Coupled with his strong history against the Jaguars, Pittman Jr. feels like a fairly high-floor option this week.

    The same could be said for Downs, albeit with a lower ceiling. To his credit, Downs has been a target magnet since his season debut in Week 3. He’s received a 35.9% target rate, sixth-highest in the NFL over that span. And he’s also made up for the shallow aDOT by averaging 5.0 yards after the catch per reception, best among Colts wide receivers this season.

    Both Pittman Jr. and Downs should have opportunities to shine against a vulnerable Jaguars defense that has struggled in the secondary. Despite missing top cornerback Tyson Campbell (on injured reserve since suffering a hamstring injury in Week 1), the Jaguars have played man coverage at the second-highest rate (42.2%), behind only the Denver Broncos.

    Eventually, both Pittman Jr. and Downs could see weekly volatility when Richardson returns to the lineup. For Week 5, though, both should be safe options in a more stable passing environment.

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