Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. has seen his catch and target totals increase every season, rounding out 2023 with 109 grabs. The story going into last season was how Pittman and then rookie Anthony Richardson would connect, but the franchise QB’s season ended after just four games, something that didn’t slow the team’s WR1.
Pittman was very much Richardson’s favorite target fueling high expectations for 2024. But should fantasy football managers be paying up for a receiver with such a limited sample size under center?
Michael Pittman Jr.’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
There is plenty to like about how 2024 (and beyond) sets up for the Colts’ top receiver. The thought exiting the 2023 season was that Indianapolis would be a pass catcher short of taking a big step forward, as it was assumed that Pittman would hit the open market and see money thrown at him from a variety of teams.
Well, Indy took the drama out of that situation by giving Pittman $70 million across three seasons, making him one of the 10 most well-compensated receivers in the NFL. Pittman was certainly worth that price tag last season, and the hope is that his skill set will accelerate Richardson’s growth while he is still on his rookie deal.
The schedule runs out nicely for Pittman and company, but that’s not all. As good as Pittman was in his fourth season, there’s room for a ton of growth in the environment around him, which means he could not only be a top-10 receiver in terms of money earned but also in fantasy points accumulated.
PlayerProfiler Stat of the Day🤖
In Week 1 Anthony Richardson threw 37 passes..Michael Pittman finished with 8 rec, 97 yds & 1 TD!🔥
Pittman went on to finish 2023 with 1,152 yds & 4 TDs+👀
4⃣Target Share
4⃣Receptions
4⃣Route WinsIs he undervalued?📢#PlayerProfilerStats pic.twitter.com/egpZL8WsqO
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) March 21, 2024
Last season, the Colts finished 23rd in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns (49.1%, behind the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos) and 26th on third down (35.3%, behind the Washington Commanders and Las Vegas Raiders).
That means that without the ability to extend or finish drives — not to mention their starting quarterback — Indianapolis supported a top-15 receiver (more PPR points per game than Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, and Chris Olave, to name a few).
What if this is a top-10 offense in 2024? Despite those limitations, Pittman ranked sixth in red-zone receptions, so the role and ability to get open in valuable spots is a skill he has very much shown.
The fact that Pittman converted just two of those receptions into scores is statistically improbable. Other players who finished top 10 in red-zone receptions scored on 39.7% of the catches inside the 20, implying that we would have expected 3-4 more scores from Pittman at a minimum. With more upside under center, he’s more likely than not to trend near league average.
Even if you’re not buying that, wouldn’t you agree that more red-zone trips could help balance the low-scoring percentage?
Pittman is currently being drafted outside of the top 12 at the position and is flirting with the 2-3 turn when it comes to overall ADP. That places him at the end of a tier that, by the time prime draft season kicks off, I believe he could be in the middle of.
Pittman’s ADP tier includes stable wide receivers with unstable QB situations (the aforementioned Olave along with Davante Adams) and those who could be in a fight for targets weekly (duos in San Francisco and Houston).
If Richardson can develop as a passer and lead Indy’s offense toward the potential we all think it has, this is the right tier for Pittman. And I don’t think it’s unreasonable to give him every chance to lead that group in production.
The 2023 season was great and resulted in a hefty paycheck — I think 2024 will be better.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Analysis for Michael Pittman Jr.
In my projections, Pittman comes out as the WR15, catching 106 balls for 1,167 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 15.59 ppg.
Understanding the risks posed by Richardson and potentially improved target competition from an ascending Josh Downs and rookie Adonai Mitchell, I ranked Pittman lower down at WR19. Even so, I’m still above consensus on him, as is the PFN consensus projection.
It’s important to note that while differences between scoring formats are often overstated, there are a select few players who are targets in one, but not the other.
Pittman projects much better in PPR than half or traditional standard scoring. He’s someone I will look to draft in PPR leagues but likely only take at value in half-PPR. I haven’t played a non-PPR league since 2006, but if I did, I would not be targeting Pittman at all, as his production relies heavily on receptions.