Can Skylar Thompson save the Miami Dolphins’ season while Tua Tagovailoa recovers from yet another head injury?
We’ll have a better idea by nightfall Sunday. Thompson and the Dolphins will get a stiff first test against the Seattle Seahawks and their 12th man.
Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks Game Preview
The Seahawks are 2-0 after beating the Denver Broncos (26-20 in Week 1) and New England Patriots (23-20 in Week 2).
The Dolphins (1-1), meanwhile, look to bounce back after a 31-10 drubbing at the hands of the Buffalo Bills last Thursday night.
“Good teams don’t lose two in a row,” Dolphins defensive tackle Calais Campbell said this week. “Everything is circumstantial or whatever, but in this business, you got to find ways to win.”
If Campbell is right (and that’s certainly debatable), then the betting public does not believe the Dolphins are a good team.
Skylar Thompson seems to get choked up a bit when talking about getting another chance to start pic.twitter.com/jkugeY8ndP
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) September 18, 2024
As of Friday morning, they were 4.5-point road underdogs — which hasn’t worked out well for Miami under Mike McDaniel. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Dolphins are 2-9 straight up when getting points on the road. They have lost 10 of their last 14 road games, regardless of the line.
That’s a big reason why 77% of the bets as of Friday were on the Seahawks moneyline (-220). However, there is a slight sliver of hope for Miami. The big bets (and 62% of the money) were on the Dolphins.
PFN’s predictions, plus seven key stats courtesy of TruMedia, are below.
Seven Dolphins-Seahawks Stats From TruMedia
Stat: Thompson in his career is averaging 8.6 air yards per attempt (including playoffs). For context, that would rank as the fourth-deepest aDOT in the league since 2022 if he qualified.
Analysis: Thompson holds the ball longer and takes more deep shots than Tagovailoa. If the Dolphins’ offensive line holds up, there should be opportunities downfield for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Stat: Miami has started slowly this season, averaging 8.5 points per game and 4.9 yards per play in the first half through two weeks. Last year it ranked first in yards per play (7.1) and second in PPG (16.7) in the first half of games.
Analysis: Self-inflicted wounds have killed the Dolphins. Entering Week 3, they ranked seventh in penalties assessed (16) and fifth in yards penalized (153).
Stat: Miami has generated the highest pressure rate when using a four-man rush this season (47%).
Analysis: Chop Robinson doesn’t have a sack but he ranks second among rookies (with 10 or more pass rush snaps) in pressure rate (21.4%). “I love how Chop is playing right now,” Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver said this week.
Stat: The Seahawks have pressured the opposing QB on at least 43.8% of dropbacks in both games – the only team that can claim that.
Analysis: Thompson takes some sacks he probably shouldn’t. His career sack rate is 5.6%, higher than Tua’s (5.0%) since the start of the 2022 season.
Stat: Seattle has seen man coverage on a league-high 42% of dropbacks this season. DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both have six receptions against man coverage, tied for the league lead with Malik Nabers and Breece Hall.
Analysis: The Dolphins have had success in man this season, holding opposing quarterbacks to 3-of-11 passing for 41 yards when in that coverage. One of the three completions was Josh Allen’s 17-yard touchdown to James Cook in Week 3.
Stat: Since the start of last season, the Seahawks rank third in zone rate (79.8%, league average checks in just under 70%).
Analysis: The Bills in Week 2 were in zone on 75% of the Dolphins’ dropbacks — and it worked. Miami didn’t have a completion longer than 21 yards.
Stat: Geno Smith is 0-2-2 against the spread in his past four starts as a home favorite – all four of those games have gone over the projected total (average over margin: 8.3 PPG).
Analysis: The Dolphins have covered six of their past seven road September games (covering by an average of 4.0 points).
Dolphins vs. Seahawks Predictions
David Bearman (19-13 on the season): Seahawks
Adam Beasley (20-12): Seahawks
Brian Blewis (16-16): Seahawks
Tony Catalina (21-11): Seahawks
Anthony DiBona (17-15): Seahawks
Mike Gambardella (20-12): Seahawks
Jay Morrison (20-12): Seahawks
Dakota Randall (21-11): Seahawks
Dallas Robinson (17-15): Seahawks
Ben Rolfe (17-15): Seahawks
Kyle Soppe (19-13): Seahawks
Dan Tomaro (20-12): Seahawks
Mike Wobschall (19-13): Seahawks
Dakota Zientek (18-14): Seahawks