Week 3 NFL Picks and Predictions: Analyzing Why the Chiefs, Jets, and Cardinals Are Teams To Back

We now have two weeks of the NFL season in the books, and we are trying not to overreact to what we have seen so far. There is still plenty of time left, and we have a very small sample size, so let’s dive in to see what we should trust and what might be something we need to look beyond ahead of Week 3.

The premise of this article is to help you identify any potential value in the betting lines while also giving you a rough framework for filling out your Week 3 pick ’em contests.

NFL Week 3 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, and Predictions

All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Sept. 19, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6)

• Moneyline: Patriots +220; Jets -270
• Total: 38.5

Everything that we have seen so far this season makes this line look wrong. The New York Jets were poor in Week 1 and only slightly better in Week 2. Sure, they beat the Tennessee Titans by seven points on the road, but it was hardly convincing. Their offense is barely in the positive in terms of expected points added (EPA), and their defense is the seventh-worst in the league entering Monday Night Football.

The New England Patriots have not set the world alight, but they have been solid and steady. They are a league-average team in all three phases, and that is most likely where they will sit all season. Rarely will I back the Patriots to win, but I do not expect them to get beaten by a touchdown or more many times this season.

Everything in my head is screaming to take the Patriots getting the points here, but we have never seen Jerod Mayo prepare on a short week, so that gives me pause. Maybe the right play is a teaser, with the Patriots going up to 12.5 to protect against a late touchdown to pad the scoreline. Stay away from the total because 35-40 points feels like the right range for this game.

Trends

• Since the start of 2023, unders are 18-9 in divisional games with a sub-40-point total
• Aaron Rodgers is making his second consecutive start on short rest – he failed to cover five of his final seven short rest games as a favorite with the Packers.

Picks:

• Beasley: Jets
• Morrison: Jets
• Randall: Jets
• Robinson: Jets
• Soppe: Jets

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)

• Moneyline: Giants +240; Browns -298
• Total: 38.5

When two teams that rank in the bottom 10 in net EPA meet, I usually look to avoid any kind of play. Both teams are bad, and on a neutral field, I would put this as a field goal advantage to the Browns, so seven points is in the right region in Cleveland.

MORE: NFL Power Rankings Week 3

There is no chance I am laying seven points with Deshaun Watson until I see more than we have seen through two weeks. The total is tempting in terms of the under, but this game could fumble its way to 21-20 and see the over hit. Just stay away from this game.

Trends

• Daniel Jones has failed to cover in his last 8 starts, twice as long as the next-longest active streak for any starting QB. The last QB to fail to cover in 9 straight starts was Matt Ryan in 2015 (9).
• Deshaun Watson is 6-11-1 ATS (35.3%) in his past 18 starts as a favorite.

Picks:

• Beasley: Browns
• Morrison: Browns
• Randall: Browns
• Robinson: Browns
• Soppe: Browns

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

• Moneyline: Broncos +235; Buccaneers -290
• Total: 40

I am still not sure the sportsbooks are giving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the respect they deserve by only making them seven-point favorites at home to the Denver Broncos. Denver’s offense has scored one touchdown all season, which essentially came in garbage time. Their offensive EPA is the second-worst in the league, and four of their 26 points have come via safeties.

In contrast, the Buccaneers have the fifth-best EPA on offense, and while they are weaker defensively, this is a great matchup to hide mediocre defensive play. Laying seven points with Baker Mayfield is pretty scary, and that is all that is giving me pause right now. I have already taken them -1 in a teaser this week and may well take them -7 before too much longer.

Trends

• The Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS in their past 11 games when they are catching more than three points.
• Baker Mayfield is seeking his 3rd straight cover when favored, which would be the longest streak of his career. In his career, Mayfield is 13-27-1 (.325) ATS when favored. Only Cam Newton (.286) has a worse cover pct when favored since 2018 (among 29 starting QBs with 20+ starts as a favorite).

Picks:

• Beasley: Buccaneers
• Morrison: Buccaneers
• Randall: Buccaneers
• Robinson: Buccaneers
• Soppe: Buccaneers

Houston Texans (-2) at Minnesota Vikings

• Moneyline: Texans -135; Vikings +114
• Total: 46

It somewhat surprised me to see the Houston Texans as three-point favorites in this game. Houston was far from convincing against the Bears on Sunday Night Football, and their thrilling win over the Indianapolis Colts does not look as good after Week 2 as it did after Week 1. I had this game as a pick ’em before I saw the line.

The Minnesota Vikings’ defense has been impressive through two weeks, and their offense has done all it has needed to. One area of concern here is that the Texans have a former 49ers defensive coordinator as head coach, DeMeco Ryans, and Kevin O’Connell is from the Shanahan coaching tree. Ryans should have a good idea of how to shut this offense down, which could be the key to a Texans win.

The under is my favorite play here because the Texans offense looked disjointed this week against a good defense, and Ryans should know how to slow down O’Connell and his system.

Trends

• Only the Panthers (18.2%) have a lower cover rate when favored since 2021 than the Texans (27.3%).
• Sam Darnold is 12-7-1 ATS for his career as a home underdog, a vast improvement from his 2-7 ATS mark when favored at home.

Picks:

• Beasley: Texans
• Morrison: Texans
• Randall: Vikings
• Robinson: Texans
• Soppe: Texans

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

• Moneyline: Eagles +124; Saints -148
• Total: 49.5

This matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints has game-of-the-week vibes. The Eagles offense was not high-flying in Week 2, but they still did enough to tell us that there is some fight there.

Derek Carr's 70-yard TD to Rashid Shaheed traveled 54.5 yards in the air, Shaheed's 7th reception over 50 yards of air distance since the start of 2023, most in the NFL.

No other receiver has more than four.

Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/TbRwaOCfgk

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 15, 2024

The Saints have been electric to open the year, with Rashid Shaheed’s speed and Alvin Kamara’s renaissance a major part of it. They rank first in net EPA, first in offensive EPA, and fifth in defensive EPA. Those numbers are a little padded by facing the woeful Carolina Panthers, but they backed it up in a big way on the road in Dallas..

Trends

• Unders are 1-5 in Philadelphia’s last six games as a road favorite (opened as a one-point favorite).
• Here are the leading scoring units this season:
  1st: Saints: 91 points
  2nd: Cardinals: 69 points
  T-3rd Bills: 65 points
  T-3rd First Half Saints: 65 points

Picks:

• Beasley: Saints
• Morrison: Saints
• Randall: Saints
• Robinson: Saints
• Soppe: Eagles

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)

• Moneyline: Chargers +100; Steelers -120
• Total: 36

This game might be the biggest head-scratcher of the week because we have no idea how good either of these teams really is. We may get better context when we see the Falcons on Monday Night Football, but right now, the Pittsburgh Steelers have crept to 2-0 while scoring 31 points. That does not scream of a legitimate contender, but the defense is every bit as good as we would expect from a Mike Tomlin unit.

The same could be said of the Los Angeles Chargers’ defense under Jim Harbaugh, but their league-leading defensive EPA may well be partially due to facing two very underwhelming offenses in the Panthers and Raiders. Their offense has struggled for consistency, and that will be tested this week.

MORE: Marvin Harrison Jr. Now Offensive ROY Favorite Over Caleb Williams

The Chargers on back-to-back East Coast road games is a tough spot, but they have mitigated it by staying on that side of the country as opposed to traveling back. The Steelers will actually have the worst of it in terms of travel, which seems a little bizarre. Ultimately, I do not have a real read on this game. The spread is pretty much spot on for my numbers, and the total is in the right range as well.

Trends

• Four straight Chargers games have gone under the total, the longest active streak in the league. Since the start of 2023 the Chargers have the highest under pct in the league (14 out of 19, or 73.7%).
• The Steelers have covered in 5 straight games, the longest active streak in the league. Another cover would be Pittsburgh’s 2nd-longest cover streak since Mike Tomlin took over in 2006 (had a 7-game streak from 2014-15).

Picks:

• Beasley: Chargers
• Morrison: Steelers
• Randall: Chargers
• Robinson: Chargers
• Soppe: Steelers

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

• Moneyline: Bears +102; Colts -122
• Total: 43.5

This game might be equally as confounding as the one above, and trying to figure out who plays better in Week 3 between Caleb Williams and Anthony Richardson may well give you a migraine. Both teams rank in the bottom 10 when you look at the overall metrics, but while the numbers favor the Indianapolis Colts, the Chicago Bears’ defense is the best unit of the group.

The problem with predicting the Colts is that Richardson can swing from the sublime to the ridiculous so fast that it makes him unpredictable. Ultimately, the Bears have the best unit on the field, and their weakness matches up well with the Colts’ weakness, so I like the Bears. However, I am not comfortable putting any money on either team or telling you to.

If I am betting on this game, it will be the under because I do not trust either offense to get much beyond 20 after what we have seen through two weeks.

Trends

• For the second straight week, Caleb Williams and the Bears are playing inside. Rookie QBs are 11-5-1 ATS in their past 17 such games (Chicago lost by six)
• Betting against the Colts? Take the over. In eight of their past 11 games in which they’ve failed to cover, the total has gone over the closing number.

Picks:

• Beasley: Colts
• Morrison: Colts
• Randall: Bears
• Robinson: Colts
• Soppe: Bears

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-2)

• Moneyline: Packers +110; Titans -130
• Total: 38

What a smart and controlled game plan the Green Bay Packers had in Week 2. They simply kept things tight and let the Colts beat themselves. Malik Willis was efficient without being spectacular, taking what was on the plate for him and letting the run game do the hard yards. He did not throw enough to qualify for Next Gen Stats in Week 2, but he does for the season, where he has an expected completion rate (xCOMP%) of 73.1%.

In contrast, the Tennessee Titans are not making things simple for Will Levis it would seem. His xCOMP% is the second-lowest in the league, entering Monday Night Football at 56.4%. It is no wonder the second-year QB is struggling, and with him, so is the team, ranking fifth-worst in offensive EPA.

The experience as a head coach is showing with these two teams, with Matt LaFleur keeping things simple, while Brian Callahan has been more aggressive. I like the Packers here, but I cannot, in good faith, tell anyone to put money on Willis or the Packers’ offense, and I am certainly not laying points with Levis. The under is probably the play, but it is so low I am not betting it with confidence.

Trends

• Since 2014, overs are 14-5 when the Packers play on the road with a total under 45 points.
• Even with an understanding of the limitations of Will Levis, bookmakers are struggling to set Tennessee totals low enough – unders are 4-1-1 in their past six games.

Picks:

• Beasley: Packers
• Morrison: Packers
• Randall: Titans
• Robinson: Titans
• Soppe: Packers

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-5)

• Moneyline: Panthers +190; Raiders -230
• Total: 40

This week does not get any easier to judge, does it? The Panthers have been a complete mess through two weeks and have been comprehensively handled by their opponents. The Raiders have been getting solid play from Gardner Minshew II, but can he sustain a completion rate 8.7% above expectation? I have my doubts.

QB Gardner Minshew II (@GardnerMinshew5) has now completed 55-of-71 (77.5%) passes in 2024.

His 77.5 completion percentage leads all NFL QBs with at least 50 attempts in 2024. pic.twitter.com/2RBA2dandq

— Raiders PR (@RAIDERS_PR) September 16, 2024

Both offenses have posted extremely negative EPAs through two weeks, and the only units that are posting positive numbers are the Raiders’ defense and special teams. I fully expect the Raiders to win, but you will not ever convince me to lay seven points on Minshew, even if the opponent is the Panthers. The total is tempting here, too, but taking totals below 40 is going to bite you eventually.

Trends

• The Panthers have failed to cover four straight games, falling to reach the spread by 78.5 points across those losses (cumulative score: 108-13).
• The Raiders have covered five of their past six games when favored (in large part to the defense: in those five covers, they’ve allowed an average of 14.2 PPG).

Picks:

• Beasley: Panthers
• Morrison: Raiders
• Randall: Raiders
• Robinson: Raiders
• Soppe: Raiders

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)

• Moneyline: Dolphins +164; Seahawks -198
• Total: 41.5

This matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Seattle Seahawks makes it five in a row where you just want to throw your hands up in a look of complete befuddlement. The Seahawks have made tough work of the Broncos and Patriots and are 2-0 despite making every effort not to be. They have their defense to thank because their offense has been league-average and their special teams have been poor.

You can discard all the metrics for the Dolphins because we are now discussing the Skylar Thompson show for the near future and potentially the rest of the season. When Thompson has started for the Dolphins in the past, the team has posted a -15.29 EPA, with a -11.10 passing EPA. Those numbers would rank 23rd and 26th, respectively, this season.

MORE: Stock Up, Stock Down After NFL’s Week 2

The Seahawks should win, but they probably should have beaten the Broncos and Patriots by more than a combined nine points. My initial lean was to lay the points with the Seahawks, but Mike McDaniel has had 10 days to put together a Thompson-proof offense that can try to win with ball control and limiting mistakes. We have seen it work with the Packers this week, and that is why I am hesitant to get carried away here.

The under might well be the play because both defenses have been solid, so scoring points may rely more on mistakes from opposing offenses than anything else.

Trends

• The Dolphins have covered six of their past seven road September games (covering by an average of 4.0 points).
• Geno Smith is 0-2-2 ATS in his past four starts as a home favorite – all four of those games have gone over the projected total (average over margin: 8.3 PPG).

Picks:

• Beasley: Seahawks
• Morrison: Seahawks
• Randall: Seahawks
• Robinson: Seahawks
• Soppe: Seahawks

Detroit Lions (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

• Moneyline: Lions -155; Cardinals +130
• Total: 51.5

Finally, we get to some potential high-octane, exciting football. The Arizona Cardinals offense has been the second-best unit in the league in terms of EPA through two weeks. If Kyler Murray is healthy, they very well might actually be a playoff team in the NFC. Their defense also came to the party in Week 2, and that is extremely promising, even if the overall numbers through two weeks are mediocre.

Kyler Murray completed every one of his five deep passes (20+ air yards) for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Rams. The probability of Murray completing all five of his deep attempts was just 0.3%.

All five completions came in the first half.#LARvsAZ | @AZCardinals pic.twitter.com/QswiKRF5rb

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 15, 2024

The Lions have not been convincing at all through the first two weeks. They crept past a Los Angeles Rams team that got blown out in Week 2, and they lost to the Buccaneers, both at home. They are 10th in net EPA, 10th offensively, and 25th defensively. Those are not the numbers of a team that should be favored on the road.

I do not want to go all in on the Cardinals just yet, but taking the points and the ML is tempting here. At the very least, I am taking them up to +9 in a teaser to cover myself, but this is a team that has been really exciting through two weeks.

Trends

• Much was made this offseason about Detroit rarely playing outdoors – Jared Goff is 6-2 ATS in his past eight outdoor starts.
• Over tickets have cashed in eight of Kyler Murray’s last 12 starts as a home underdog.

Picks:

• Beasley: Cardinals
• Morrison: Lions
• Randall: Lions
• Robinson: Lions
• Soppe: Lions

Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Dallas Cowboys

• Moneyline: Ravens -118; Cowboys -102
• Total: 48.5

We go straight back to a “what do I do with these two teams” matchup. The Baltimore Ravens dropped the ball in a big way against the Raiders in Week 2 and also made stupid errors in Week 1. This is not a typical John Harbaugh team, and they are 20th in net EPA after two weeks. I expect they will be fine in the long run, but taking them on the road as favorites is hard to swallow.

The only reason the Ravens are favored is that the Cowboys looked awful against the Saints in Week 2 and did not look convincing offensively in Week 1 either. A lot of people have been waiting for the wheels to come off under Mike McCarthy, and there are signs this could be it. Conversely, the Saints might actually be good and the Cowboys just underestimated them.

This week is going to be a learning week for us with these two teams. The Cowboys are 27th in net EPA, thanks in large part to their offense, which you expect to get right with Dak Prescott at the helm. I am just going to steer clear of this game because I cannot work either of these teams out right now.

Trends

• Lamar Jackson is 3-1 ATS when playing indoors with under tickets cashing in all four of those games.
• There are three active QBs with a MVP trophy on their mantle (Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson) – here are Dak Prescott’s last five results in a game against one of them, including the playoffs:31-28 loss as a 3.5 point favorite
  19-9 loss as a 2.5-point underdog
  34-24 loss as a 3.5-point underdog
  35-31 loss as a 2.5-point favorite
  34-31 loss as a 5.5-point favoriteThat’s an 0-5 ATS record with a failure to cover rate of 8.5 points per game.

Picks:

• Beasley: Cowboys
• Morrison: Ravens
• Randall: Ravens
• Robinson: Ravens
• Soppe: Ravens

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Los Angeles Rams

• Moneyline: 49ers -355; Rams +280
• Total: 44.5

The 49ers really struggled in Week 2, but there may be a factor of familiarity against a former coach. This week they face another coach they are familiar with, Sean McVay. However, the 49ers have typically had the Rams number, winning nine of the last 11 matchups, including nine of the last 10 in the regular season.

The Rams looked in trouble defensively against the Cardinals but equally did a solid job against the Lions in Week 1. They rank last in the league in defensive EPA through two weeks, and their offense, which is only league average, may be down Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

Laying seven points on the road is a lot, especially coming off a poor offensive performance on the road in a dome, but the Rams are in a world of trouble right now. Taking the 49ers in a tease at -1 is a smart play, but I also like them at -7.

Trends

• Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 11-6-1 ATS when playing on the road the game following a road contest (last instance: 42-19 win in Philadelphia in Week 13 last season as a three-point favorite).
• Sean McVay is 4-10-1 ATS against the 49ers with six of those ATS losses carrying a cover rate of double figures for San Francisco.

Picks:

• Beasley: 49ers
• Morrison: 49ers
• Randall: 49ers
• Robinson: 49ers
• Soppe: 49ers

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

• Moneyline: Chiefs -175; Falcons +145
• Total: 46.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have been far from convincing through two weeks, but they are 2-0 against two tough opponents. That is the job done, as far as they are concerned. They head to Week 3 ranked eighth in net EPA, sixth in offensive EPA, and with a positive defensive EPA, even if they rank 19th. All told, the Chiefs will be very comfortable.

I am not sure how, after what we saw from the Falcons in Week 2 this line came down. If anything, the lack of impetus from the Falcons’ offense for large portions should have pushed the line up. The Chief being -3.5 seems too good to be true here.

Trends

• The Chiefs covered an indoor Super Bowl last season – their four consecutive indoor cover when Mahomes starts (cumulative score in those four games: 114-72).
• Overs are 25-14 (64.1%) when Kirk Cousins starts as a home underdog. He went 0-4-1 ATS in his final five such games with the Vikings.

Picks:

• Beasley: Chiefs
• Morrison: Chiefs
• Randall: Chiefs
• Robinson: Chiefs
• Soppe: Chiefs

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5)

• Moneyline: Jaguars +190; Bills -230
• Total: 45.5

It is hard to read too much into the Buffalo Bills’ Week 2 performance because the Dolphins were just awful and lost their starting QB during the second half. What we do know is that the Bills’ offense is very good (fourth in EPA) and the defense might well shake out as league average when we get deeper into the season.

In contrast, the Jaguars’ offense is not very good, and the defense already looks league-average through two weeks. Trevor Lawrence alluded to some untapped potential for the Jaguars’ offense, but it looks a long way away from being realized. Laying the points with the Bills is the play here.

Trends

• The Jags covered (by 0.5 points) in their season opener in Miami, improving them to 9-4 ATS in their past 13 games against AFC East competition (they’ve covered their past two games against the Bills by a total of 28.5 points).
• The Bills are 2-6 ATS over their past eight home games, the same mark that overs have in those contests.

Picks:

• Beasley: Jaguars
• Morrison: Morrison
• Randall: Jaguars
• Robinson: Bills
• Soppe: Bills

Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

• Moneyline: Commanders +280; Bengals -355
• Total: 47

This has become a must-win home game for the Cincinnati Bengals if they do not want their season to start going up in smoke. The performance against the Chiefs was impressive, but there are concerns it could be a crescendo that comes with playing a game they likely viewed akin to a Super Bowl in terms of making a statement. Equally, you could write the loss to the Patriots down as overlooking them and focusing on the Chiefs.

The Washington Commanders have played things really smart with Jayden Daniels to open the season. No quarterback has a higher xCOMP% than the rookie (73.9%), showing how well they have managed him. There will be bumps in the road as they open things up more, but through three weeks, their approach has been rewarded with a third-ranked offense in terms of EPA.

The problem for Washington is that their defense is the second-worst unit in the league in terms of EPA through two weeks and largely as bad in a number of other metrics. I do not feel comfortable laying over a touchdown with a Bengals team that has been all over the place through two weeks, but the Commanders’ defense makes it hard to back them either.

Trends

• Since 2007, rookie QBs are 21-8-1 ATS on Monday night’s (72.4%).
• Unders are 4-0-1 when Joe Burrow plays in primetime as a favorite

Picks:

• Beasley: Bengals
• Morrison: Bengals
• Randall: Bengals
• Robinson: Bengals
• Soppe: Bengals