Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints Playoff Scenarios: A high-stakes prime-time showdown

The Miami Dolphins (7-7) and New Orleans Saints (7-7) meet for just the 13th time Monday night, but never before have the stakes been so high — or cut and dry. Both teams have survived long losing streaks in 2021. Both have had to rely on backup quarterbacks. And both have gotten hot at the right time. We break down the NFL playoff implications and clinching scenarios for the Dolphins vs. Saints penultimate Monday Night Football game of the year.

Dolphins vs. Saints playoff implications and clinching scenarios

Neither team can clinch a playoff berth or be eliminated Monday night. But both desperately need a win. The Dolphins — who have won six straight after a 1-7 start — are currently third in the AFC East behind the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. They woke up Monday as the AFC’s 11th seed and with less than a 1-in-5 chance to make the playoffs and a 1-in-500 chance of winning the division, per FiveThirtyEight.

The Saints, meanwhile, have no chance to win the NFC South (the Buccaneers clinched it Sunday) but are better than 50-50 to be the conference’s sixth or seventh seed.

Miami Dolphins Week 16 playoff implications

The Dolphins’ last two months have been one long Undertaker-pops-out-of-coffin meme. A seven-game losing streak — which included losses to the Jaguars and Falcons — put the entire organization on notice. Jobs were at stake.

Now, six wins later, something entirely different is on the line: Miami’s third playoff appearance in the last two decades.

Thanks to Week 16 losses by the Patriots, Ravens, and Chargers, Miami now controls its playoff destiny. Wins against the Saints, Titans, and Patriots would guarantee the Dolphins one of the AFC’s three Wild Card berths.

A faceplant Monday night, however, would basically be fatal. While the Dolphins would still have a 4% chance to get in with a loss, they would not only need to win their final two games, but also have three other results go their way — including the Patriots losing to the Jaguars. The Dolphins also still have one very improbable path to the AFC East crown if they win out: Buffalo loses to the Falcons and Jets.

New Orleans Saints Week 16 playoff implications

Like the Dolphins, the Saints need no help to get into the playoffs. Wins in their final three games (vs. Miami, vs. Carolina, at Atlanta) will punch their ticket. And that’s not at all out of the realm of possibility. Those three teams were all in the bottom eight of DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric) through Week 15.

But the Saints are home underdogs to the Dolphins because they’re starting a fourth-string quarterback and have more than a quarter of their roster on the COVID-19 list. Ian Book will be New Orleans’ emergency starter with Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian both positive.

But unlike the Dolphins, the Saints could realistically survive a loss. They would still get into the field if they beat the Panthers and Falcons and two other entirely plausible things happen: Dallas beat Philly and the Rams beat the 49ers in Week 18. There are other scenarios in which the Saints could get in, but they include either the 49ers losing to the Texans or the Eagles losing to the Washington Football Team.

But the important takeaway? If the Saints lose Monday, they need at least four games to go their way down the stretch, beginning with their own.