Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: 7 Crucial Stats and PFN’s Game Predictions

If Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots is close in Week 1, here is why Tua Tagovailoa would likely have the edge.

Week 2 is here, and so is the first of two Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots matchups of 2022.

The Dolphins are looking for their first 2-0 start with both wins coming on the road since 2013. The Patriots are looking to avoid their first 0-2 start since 2001.

Kickoff is 8:20 p.m. on NBC.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Game Preview

This is the 116th meeting between the Dolphins and Patriots, with Miami holding the all-time series edge 60-55.

The Dolphins have won four of their last five games against the Patriots — their only loss in the stretch coming in Week 17 when Tua Tagovailoa was out with a concussion.

The Dolphins are three-point road favorites, per Caesars, with the over/under set at 46.5.

Here’s more context on this AFC East clash, with help from Inside Edge.

Seven Dolphins-Patriots Stats From Inside Edge

Stat: Tagovailoa (Dolphins) has a 101.7 passer rating in late and close games since the 2022 season — sixth-best of qualified quarterbacks. The Patriots have allowed a passer rating of 95.7 in close and late situations since the 2022 season — fifth-worst in the NFL.

MORE: QB Power Rankings 2023

Analysis: There’s a good chance this stat comes into play Sunday. Since the start of the 2019 season, the eight games between the Dolphins and Patriots have been decided by a total of 22 points.

Stat: Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) has 97.1 receiving yards per game since Week 12 of the 2022 Season — third-best of qualified wide receivers. The Patriots have averaged 185.1 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs since Week 12 of the 2022 season — second-worst in the NFL.

Analysis: Hill’s 215 receiving yards in Week 1 led all NFL receivers, but expect the Patriots to double him in a way the Chargers did not. “I’m still going to dominate that no matter what,” Hill said Thursday.

Stat: The Dolphins have a third-down conversion rate of just 27.3% against the blitz since the 2022 season — fifth-worst in the NFL. The Patriots’ defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of just 28.6% when blitzing since the 2022 season — third-best in the NFL.

Analysis: The Patriots blitzed on 42.1% of all Eagles dropbacks in Week 1, so it would be out of character to sit back and play coverage in Week 2.

Stat: Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) has averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch since the 2022 season — third-worst of qualified running backs. The Patriots have allowed just 4.6 yards after the catch since the 2022 season — second-best in the NFL.

Analysis: Mostert is on track to play Sunday despite Wednesday’s practice with a minor knee injury. He got 71% of all Dolphins running backs touches against the Chargers.

Stat: The Patriots are averaging 6.3 yards per carry on rushes to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — second-best in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 5.6 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the right since the 2022 season — tied for fourth-worst in the NFL.

Analysis: Vic Fangio fell on the sword this week for the Dolphins’ run defense woes in Week 1, but any time a team allows over 200 yards on the ground in a game, it is a collective failure.

Stat: Tagovailoa has averaged just 3.2 pass attempts per touchdown in the red zone since the 2022 season — tied for second-best of qualified quarterbacks. The Patriots have allowed passing TDs once every 3.0 pass attempts in the red zone since the 2022 season — tied for worst in the NFL.

Analysis: Tagovailoa takes his game to another level once he crosses the opponent’s 20, last week’s fumbled snap inside the 5 notwithstanding.

Stat: The Dolphins have rushed the ball on just 40.4% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone since the 2022 season — fifth-lowest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed seven rushing touchdowns in the red zone since the 2022 season — second-fewest in NFL.

Analysis: It’s a good thing Tagovailoa is so good in goal-to-go situations. Because the Dolphins struggle big time punching the ball in on the ground.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions

  • David Bearman: Dolphins
  • Adam Beasley: Dolphins
  • Dalton Miller: Dolphins
  • Jay Morrison: Patriots
  • Dallas Robinson: Dolphins

For all of PFN’s Week 2 predictions, we got you covered.

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