The Miami Dolphins would be four times more likely to win the Super Bowl if they beat the Buffalo Bills than if they lost to them.
That’s based on the 33 years of historical data we have since the NFL expanded the playoff field from 10 to 12 teams in 1990.
Since that change, the No. 2 seed has lifted the Lombardi Trophy eight times, compared to just two No. 6 seeds — the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 2010 Green Bay Packers.
Why are those stats important? Because if the Dolphins beat (or tie) the Bills Sunday, they’re the AFC’s No. 2 seed and will host either Buffalo or Pittsburgh next weekend.
Miami Dolphins Desperately Need To Beat Buffalo Bills
If they lose, it’s a trip to Arrowhead, where the Chiefs are 9-2 in the playoffs since 2018.
And unlike the 2005 Steelers and 2010 Packers, they’ll limp their way into the postseason.
That Steelers title team got into the playoffs by winning their last four regular-season games.
The 2010 Packers needed a win in their last game of the regular season to make the playoffs and got it.
If they end up as the No. 6 seed, the Dolphins would be a far different story.
It means they would have blown a three-game division lead with five weeks to play in large part due to losses to arguably the two best teams in the conference in the season’s final two games.
At that point, simply making the Divisional Round would be a major accomplishment.
MORE: Miami Dolphins Depth Chart
“Everybody is not naïve,” Dolphins running back Jeff Wilson said Friday. “We’re all grown. We all understand. We all have been around football a long time. Everybody knows what’s at stake for this game.
“If we were to lose, it probably could take us a whole different route that we don’t want to see. Obviously we want to come out here and execute and win this game.”
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