Officially, the Miami Dolphins‘ magic number to win their first AFC East title in 15 years is seven with eight to play.
But in truth, the race for division supremacy is all but over after the Buffalo Bills’ comical 24-22 loss to the Denver Broncos on Monday night.
Miami Dolphins Playoff Outlook
That gave the Dolphins (6-3) an already meaningful margin for error even bigger. They now lead the Bills by a game and a half and the Jets by two full games with seven to play.
What’s more, Miami has the easiest remaining road of those three teams, and you could make the argument that the hardest part of their schedule is behind them.
The Bills have the NFL’s fourth-hardest remaining schedule (.578), with games still against the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins.
The Jets and the Dolphins, meanwhile, are tied for the 14th-toughest remaining schedule (.500), with both legs of the annual head-to-head still to go. But five of Miami’s remaining games are home, compared to just four for New York.
No wonder, then, that the Dolphins are now 88% to win the AFC East per the New York Times’ calculations, and that figure bumps up into the 90s if Miami takes care of business against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.
So if you trust those metrics, the Dolphins at -450 to win the AFC East (which was DraftKings’ line as of Tuesday morning) is actually solid value. The implied probability of minus-450 is 81.8% — meaning the betting public might actually be undervaluing the Dolphins.
As we discuss in the Week 11 edition of the PFN Miami Dolphins Podcast, that’s not the only bit of value out there with Dolphins bets.
Tua Tagovailoa at +550 to +600 (depending on the book) to win MVP could also be worth your time, given the fact that he’s likely to supercharge his stats with games against a number of bad teams over the next month, beginning Sunday with the Raiders.
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