The Michigan Wolverines are for real, and with five weeks remaining in the regular season, they’ve positioned themselves as one of the few teams in the country capable of winning six games in March, which has them shooting up our latest Men’s CBB Power Rankings. But, how does the rest of the top 25 stack up ahead of another week of top-tier games?
1) Purdue
The loss at Indiana on Jan. 28 marked a third straight defeat before Purdue bounced back Sunday with a 30-point demolition of Maryland in College Park. The metrics may be focused too much on early-season success at this point, but this is a team with experience, elite guard play, and elite predictive metrics in most spots.
The recent results haven’t been great, but those were largely coin-flip games that went the wrong way. You can argue this team isn’t the best in the country right now, but the idea that they can’t do serious damage in six weeks when your bracket relies on them is simply wrong.
2) Michigan
Despite facing one of the five hardest schedules to date, the Wolverines own a top-5 defense, and that’ll travel nicely into March.
Yaxel Lendeborg showed some of the ability that was projected upon him in Friday’s win over Michigan State (26 points, 12 rebounds, and zero turnovers in 35 minutes ), and if he can make the move from star to superstar as the regular season closes, there’s nothing this team can’t achieve.
3) Duke
Would a lower turnover rate help? Of course, but there are no real notes here. The 14-point win at Virginia Tech on Saturday felt like a B- performance (24% from 3, seven FTA), and yet, they never trailed. Cameron Boozer dropped 24 points and looked like a future top-five pick. Duke is 20-1 and 9-0 in ACC play. This team doesn’t beat itself.
4) Nebraska
The Cornhuskers never beat themselves and own a 90th percentile defense. They have the potential to graduate from a very good story to an all-timer if they can hit their stride in March, and the metrics very much suggest they are a legitimate Tier 1 team as we move into the final five weeks of the regular season.
Michigan ended their unbeaten run, but Nebraska’s profile remains elite.
5) Arizona
The Wildcats remain unbeaten, and the formula is rather simple: close possessions. This is an elite rebounding team thanks to a gang approach on the glass, and with five players averaging in double figures, they have more than proven their ability to play at the highest level. The Big 12 schedule gets tougher from here, but Arizona has the depth to handle it.
6) Illinois
Any team with scoring depth like this, complementing a low-turnover style of play, can win at a high level. The Illini can rely too much on Keaton Wagler’s creation ability at times, but there are worse players to lean on than one of the nation’s craftiest freshmen. This team has the pieces to make noise in March.
7) Iowa State
This might be the simplest profile on the board: the Cyclones are a top-10 team on both sides of the ball that is comfortable in any sort of game.
Good luck beating them in a rock fight, and if you do crack the code on their defense, Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson can return serve every step of the way. If there’s a team outside of Tier 1 that is cutting down the nets in April, Iowa State is my pick right now.
8) Louisville
A nice bounce-back win on Saturday for the Cardinals — an 88-74 victory over SMU — and it was courtesy of Mikel Brown Jr. finding a groove.
MORE: Kansas’ Darryn Peterson Favored Over AJ Dybantsa by 60% of NBA Scouts, Analyst Reports
The 6’5″ freshman guard scored 20 points off the bench, and if he can harness his upside, he’s supported by a team that is top-50 in most every metric: the floor is high, and with an explosive option like this, it’s not hard to see this team getting hot enough to threaten a Tier 1 team on any given night.
9) Arkansas
Saturday’s 85-77 loss to Kentucky wasn’t pretty, but even in defeat, there were stretches where this team looked like one of the best in the nation. Any time you miss 10 free throws and only make three triples, you’re in trouble, that’s just the nature of the business.
Kentucky held them to just two points in transition, and that’s the flaw I’d be more concerned about than an off-shooting night if I’m trying to talk myself into the Razorbacks as a Final Four team.
10) Michigan State
They lost to Michigan on Friday. So what? Sparty is everything you’d expect them to be, and while the raw talent doesn’t measure up to the elites, their sheer connected nature makes them a threat.
From passing to boxing out to defensive rotations: you know what you’re getting nightly, and that makes this the rare basketball team filled with 18-22 year olds that won’t beat itself.
11) Gonzaga
The Zags own the best defense in the country and saw Graham Ike drop 30 on Saint Mary’s late Saturday after missing more than two weeks with an ankle injury.
Ike looked like an All-American in his return, and Gonzaga is now 22-1 on the season. This is another highly competitive Gonzaga team with a profile that measures up with any Tier 2 team in the nation: can they peak when the lights are brightest?
12) North Carolina
Per my system, the Tar Heels are basically a rich man’s UConn, whereas the public has that reversed. They also can’t make free throws, but they foul far less often, and that makes losing a game at the stripe less likely.
Caleb Wilson has scored 20+ in five of his past six, and when he makes up his mind to attack the bucket, he’s a Tier 2 freshman in the very official “Can-Take-Over-At-Any-Moment” metric.
13) Kansas
The Kansas case is pretty simple at this point: they’ve proven they can be a second weekend team even without their future NBA star on the court, but what is their ceiling if Darryn Peterson can’t stay healthy?
The 90-82 win over BYU on Saturday at Allen Fieldhouse was nice — Peterson scored 18 points in 20 minutes before leaving with cramps — but the second-half lapse should serve as a red flag for getting too excited in the short-term.
14) Vanderbilt
Vandy is awfully foul-prone, and that’s a problem as game environments tighten down the stretch of the regular season. But they set up high-percentage shots with the extra pass as well as anyone, and that’s also the type of trait that travels well into the postseason.
The calendar features nothing but ranked teams from here on out for the Commodores: we will learn plenty before needing to decide how far to advance them in our brackets.
15) BYU
Richie Saunders showed in the second half on Saturday why this team has the potential to make an Elite Eight run in March. Yes, they lost at Allen Fieldhouse as almost everyone does, but his career-high 33 points featured shot-making at the highest of levels.
If he sparks at the right time, this team is as dangerous on that side of the floor as anyone. AJ Dybantsa was held to 17 points on 24 shots — the supporting cast will need to step up.
16) Indiana
There are some interior questions, but the Hoosiers are elite just about everywhere else and showed tenacity in their double-OT 98-97 win at UCLA on Saturday.
The four-game losing streak in mid-January is looking more and more like a product of a tough schedule than any real flaw: this is a second-weekend type of team that could see its stock rise by the end of the month if it can win at Illinois or Purdue.
17) Iowa
This program has been something of a formula trickster each year, but we are looking at an efficient offense from a team that is defending at a higher level than recent Hawkeye squads.
MORE: Analyst Hails ‘Special’ Saint Louis Team as Josh Schertz Plays Down ‘Feel Good’ Story
If you’re of the belief that guard play wins out in March, Bennett Stirtz is as good as it gets and capable of a Kemba Walker-like run.
18) NC State
Don’t look now, but there’s another team on Tobacco Road playing at a high level. The Wolfpack have won four straight and nine of 11 after some early-season stumbles, and their offensive floor projects as a top-20 strength in the country.
They have plenty of tests coming up over the next two weeks, but this team is playing well at every level of the offensive end, and the defense has shown flashes.
19) Texas Tech
There’s no excusing the eight-point loss at UCF on Saturday, but JT Toppin did clear 20 points for a fifth straight game. Hiccups like this happen, but if you look at some of the top teams, they have a strong interior presence, and the Red Raiders can match that on any given night. This is a stock I’m not looking to sell right now.
20) SMU
The second half in Louisville was one giant red flag — the Mustangs got outscored by 17 after halftime — but they did lead for the majority of the minutes, on the road, against a ranked opponent.
The offensive metrics continue to pass the smell test against a brutal schedule, and if they can get any help off the bench (Saturday: five points in 38 minutes), this team is better than they are given credit for nationally.
21) Saint Louis
You can poo-poo the schedule all you want, but the Billikens are a top-five team on both sides of the floor and can kill you with seven players averaging at least 9.5 points per game. This isn’t a team that is good by A-10 standards — this is a good team, period.
22) UConn
I still worry about the free throw line come tourney time — too many misses and too many opponent attempts — but 17 straight wins behind an offense loaded with experienced talent is the resume of a team that can run through a bracket.
23) Virginia
The Cavs operate at a bottom-third pace (not as slow as years past, but they aren’t in a hurry either), and that makes their elite grades in rebounding and passing that much more impactful. With four players averaging in double figures and three of them shooting at least 45% from the field, this team can hang with anyone in the country.
24) Utah State
Three straight wins after consecutive losses, all of which saw the Aggies allow under 70 points. This is a highly efficient offense behind the backcourt of MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev, a pair of upperclassmen scoring over 34 points a night combined.
25) Miami (FL)
Welcome to the PFSN Top-25! The ‘Canes are a top-40 team on both ends of the floor, and while the strength of schedule hasn’t been there (only one ranked opponent faced since losing to BYU on Thanksgiving), the profile doesn’t lie.
Indiana transfer Malik Reneau has done the heavy lifting this season and has scored 20+ points in three consecutive games — going 20-for-30 from the field in that span.
