Chaos is entertaining, but it rarely determines who is playing late into the tournament. Since the field expanded, 78% of March Madness champions have come from the one- or two-line, and the only way to add to that number is advancing out of the region.
So who has the toughest path ahead?
March Madness: Ranking The Projected Opponents for No. 2 Seeds
Any strength-of-schedule metric comes with uncertainty (injuries, form, etc.), and that is even more the case in a single-elimination tournament.
In that vein, I have assumed the most difficult matchup in every round for the top seeds (per rankings) and evaluated them.
Purdue’s Projected Path
- Round 1: Queens (NC)
- Round 2: Miami (FL)
- Sweet 16: Gonzaga
- Elite Eight: Arizona
The Boilermakers play the type of basketball that succeeds this time of year, and Braden Smith is at the center of everything. He was aggressive as a scorer from the start in the Big Ten title game, and if that consistency continues, this team could be playing in the final game of the year.
That said, they will have to earn it. On tap could be the best seven-seed in the field and the second-best three-seed per my formula. We know what this team can do when clicking (an 80-72 win over Michigan to win the conference tournament), but a 6-7 stretch also shows evidence of a low floor.
This team is good enough to run the table, but with a volatile profile and the toughest projected path among all two-seeds per the power rankings, reaching Indianapolis will be anything but easy.
UConn’s Projected Path
- Round 1: Furman
- Round 2: UCLA
- Sweet 16: Louisville
- Elite Eight: Duke
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A tough projected path only reinforces my underwhelming ranking of the Huskies (18th). If UCLA is at full strength with Donovan Dent, the Bruins have proven capable of holding their own in big spots over the past month:
- Overtime win over Illinois
- 20-point win over Nebraska
- Win over Michigan State
- 7-point loss to Purdue
Should that meeting take place in Round 2, there is a real chance UConn could be the first two-seed eliminated. Even if not, Mikel Brown Jr.’s recovery will be critical for a Louisville team that appears to have turned a corner since its January loss at Cameron Indoor.
I have Louisville ranked as a top-10 team and would make them a basket favorite should they meet UConn in the Sweet 16. Advance past them, and Dan Hurley’s crew would have one day to prepare for Duke, which could be nearing full strength.
Of course, health speculation looms large. Maybe UConn runs hot and injuries linger for opponents, allowing them to cruise to another Final Four. At this moment, that does not seem likely, and if these stars are close to healthy, it is hard to see the Huskies winning more than a few games.
Houston’s Projected Path
- Round 1: Idaho
- Round 2: Saint Mary’s
- Sweet 16: Illinois
- Elite Eight: Nebraska
Could this be the region of chaos?
My numbers suggest so, as the two highest-ranked teams in the group are the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds (Illinois and Nebraska). Pair that with a Saint Mary’s team that does not get enough national attention, and this could be the region that busts many brackets.
The Cougars have plenty of raw talent, but they rely on isolation scoring and a defensive style that can be effective yet whistle-prone, limiting their impact. Kingston Flemings is a true game-changer at his best, but recent struggles (3-of-12 in the Big 12 title game loss to Arizona) raise concerns. If he looks like a freshman at the wrong time, it could be a short postseason.
But if he plays to his potential, this path can be navigated.
CUSTOM RANKINGS College Basketball Predictor
Iowa State’s Projected Path
- Round 1: Tennessee State
- Round 2: Kentucky
- Sweet 16: Miami (OH)
- Elite Eight: Michigan
The Cyclones may be the top two-seed in the field, and they have a reasonably manageable path.
Kentucky has talent but has struggled to execute for extended stretches. Iowa State’s tenacity requires opponents to be sharp for all 40 minutes. Should ISU survive the first week, they likely draw either Virginia or Miami (Ohio), neither of whom projects well offensively against this defense.
Michigan could be waiting at the end of the region, and that is a tough matchup. Still, Iowa State’s passing savvy and defensive ability make them a reasonable pick in that scenario (I would have them as a two-basket underdog).
I thought Iowa State was better than Arizona when they played last week, so the fact that they draw the easiest path among the two-seeds suggests Cyclone Nation can prepare for an extended run and potentially some April basketball.
