AP Poll Top 25 Prediction: Virginia, Iowa State Headline Biggest Winners, Losers, and Surprises After Week 11

Virginia will climb the AP Poll Top 25 after big wins in Week 11 while Iowa State will fall off the rankings following two straight losses.

The voting panel for Monday’s AP Poll Top 25 in men’s basketball will make some tough decisions about who will fill the midpack after a tumultuous Week 11 that saw two teams lose their unbeaten status while other programs made their presence felt.

As expected, Arizona will retain the No. 1 spot. UConn, Michigan, Purdue, and Duke follow. Iowa State and Vanderbilt are in for a rude awakening, as the panel will likely boot them out of their lofty perches after consecutive defeats this week. These are the biggest risers and biggest fallers in the AP Poll Top 25 rankings after Week 11 play.


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AP Poll Top 25 Predictions: Who Are the Risers and Fallers From Week 11?

Virginia

Virginia kept its January slate clean with wins over No. 20 Louisville (79-70) and SMU (72-68). After dropping their ACC opener to Virginia Tech on Dec. 31, 2025, the Cavaliers have surged to five straight wins, moving to third in the ACC with a 5-1 record and an overall mark of 16-2.

Ryan Odom has led Virginia to a strong first season. Their run in the ACC should move the Cavaliers from No. 16 to around No. 11 or 12 entering Week 11.

Saint Louis

The Billikens have surged since a 78-77 loss to Stanford in the Acrisure Invitational final on Nov. 28, 2025. Since that lone defeat, Saint Louis has tallied 11 straight wins, including five in Atlantic 10 play, tying George Mason (17-1, 5-0 Atlantic 10).

During the week, Josh Schertz’s men dominated, beating Fordham (78-56) and Richmond (88-63) by an average of 23.5 points. With six players, led by senior Robbie Avila, averaging double figures, expect Saint Louis to debut in the AP Poll Top 25, likely between No. 22 and No. 24.

Clemson

Clemson has been among the hottest teams nationally, riding a nine-game win streak since falling to Alabama and BYU. Brad Brownell’s squad has regained dominance in the ACC after last season’s 18-2 run.

Wins over Syracuse, Pittsburgh, SMU, Notre Dame, Boston College, and Miami have placed Clemson in a tie atop the ACC with Duke at 6-0. Expect Clemson to move inside the Top 20, at best No. 18 or No. 19, following victories over the Eagles and Hurricanes in Week 11.

Top Three Losers

Iowa State

Last week, Iowa State received one first-place vote and prevented Arizona from becoming a unanimous No. 1-ranked team in the AP Poll Top 25. After two losses, the Cyclones will likely drop down the rankings to somewhere between No. 7 and No. 9 when the poll is released on Monday.

Losses to Kansas and Cincinnati followed an impressive non-conference run. Iowa State now seeks to rebound against UCF and Oklahoma State.

MORE: The Stat That Should Terrify Vanderbilt Fans After Texas Loss

Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt climbed the AP Poll Top 25 with a 16-0 start to 2025-26, peaking at No. 10 after a signature win over then-No. 13 Alabama and LSU. But the tough SEC has challenged Mark Byington’s team.

An 80-64 loss to Texas and a 98-94 home heartbreaker to No. 19 Florida are likely to push Vanderbilt down to a ranking between No. 14 and No. 16 after Week 11. Upcoming road games against Arkansas and Mississippi State could further test whether they are true NCAA Tournament contenders or pretenders to the throne.

Seton Hall

Seton Hall started 14-2 but dropped after losses to UConn and Butler following their recent rise to No. 25 in the AP Poll Top 25.

Expected to drop out of the Top 25 after Week 11 action, Shaheen Holloway’s Seton Hall needs wins over St. John’s and DePaul in Week 12 to resume its impressive run to the 2025-26 season.

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