Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams are like two peas in a pod, if “peas” are talented NFL players and “pods” are teams that are inexplicably wary of throwing to their receivers. The Denver Broncos averaged 35 pass attempts in their first eight games, but only 30 since Week 9. Gordon and Williams averaged a combined 21 rushing attempts in their first eight games and 27 since Week 9. So we’ve witnessed a definite usage shift. The question is whether last weekend’s debacle against the Raiders is a sign of things to come. Should fantasy football managers trust Gordon and Williams in the all-important Week 17?
Melvin Gordon’s Week 17 fantasy outlook
Gordon has surprised me this year. I thought Williams would have overtaken him by now as the team’s 1A RB. Instead, Gordon has continued to sustain fantasy relevance, thanks in part to 9 touchdowns and a reasonably efficient 4.2 yards per carry. While his receptions are down compared to previous years (only 1.7 per game vs. 2.9 for his career), he has garnered RB20 production while remaining healthier than most top-20 RBs.
Still, there are warning signs. He’s running worse than Williams (more on that in a moment) and is less utilized in the passing game (more on that, too). Also, Gordon’s ypc has dropped each month since September, standing at only 3.5 in December.
The good news is that he’s facing a Chargers defense in Week 7 that’s given up the fifth-most fantasy points to backfields. The bad news, however, is that Denver is nearly out of the playoffs. On Sunday, the Broncos play in the 4 PM ET window. If the Dolphins defeat the Titans or the Ravens beat the Rams in the 1 PM games, the Broncos will be eliminated before the opening kickoff.
There is a higher-than-zero-percent risk that if this transpires, Denver might not give Gordon (and Williams) their normal workload. Combined with every other risk factor, Gordon is a high-risk RB2. I would not be surprised if he finishes outside the top-28 RBs. Start him as a TD-dependent RB2/3.
Javonte Williams’ Week 17 fantasy outlook
I received a trade offer a few weeks ago for Williams — back when he was a weekly RB3/4. I couldn’t imagine starting him in the fantasy playoffs unless Gordon got hurt, so I turned down the offer. The following week against the Chargers, he hit 20 fantasy points for the first time. Then, Gordon got hurt, leading to two more dominating performances.
But with Gordon fully back in the fold, Williams has reverted back to an RB3. Despite averaging an impressive 4.7 ypc and corralling 40 of 50 targets for 296 yards, he’s still “just” an RB3 when Gordon is on the field. He is arguably more talented. But his snap share remains right around where it was to start the season, hovering between 49% and 59%.
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It’s the dreaded backfield timeshare. Perhaps it will change next season, and we’ll see the RB1 version of Williams. But for now, in Week 17, he’s a longshot to catapult into the RB2 sphere while splitting work with Gordon.
And if the Broncos are eliminated from the playoffs as the game begins, I wouldn’t be surprised if Williams’ usage takes a small-but-meaningful hit.
