Can wide receiver Mecole Hardman become a more reliable wide receiver for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2021? He didn’t have the breakout in 2020 that fantasy football managers were hoping for. What is Hardman’s ADP in 2021, and will his fantasy outlook this season finally exceed expectations?
Mecole Hardman’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Hardman is tethered to one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. In 2020, the Chiefs averaged 414.7 total yards (1st) and 28.5 points per game (6th). Kansas City leans heavily on quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the passing game. Since 2018, he’s averaged 36.7 pass attempts and 308 passing yards per game.
The biggest obstacles for Hardman are fellow wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. Since 2016, this duo has accounted for 1,217 targets, 11,535 receiving yards, and 85 touchdowns.
In 2020, Hardman (62) had to split targets with Demarcus Robinson (59), Sammy Watkins (55), and Byron Pringle (17). Many expected Hardman to be provided more targets when Watkins injured his hamstring in Week 5, but that didn’t come to fruition.
Hardman had a high FPOE in 2020
Nevertheless, Hardman is intriguing because he had a very high receiving FPOE (fantasy points over expectation) of 21 last season. He and Watkins each posted a single game with 20+ PPR fantasy points. Outside of Hill, no other Chiefs’ receivers accomplished this feat.
FPOE is essentially a catch-all efficiency metric that accounts for both yards and touchdowns in a single metric. Receivers who finish a season with positive FPOE are likely to repeat that performance the following year. The metric is very useful to identify efficient receivers and those who can score a high number of fantasy points if provided a larger target share.
Watkins is now a member of the Baltimore Ravens, and thus the spotlight is back on Hardman. The 23-year-old receiver ran a 4.33 40-yard dash and is very capable of separating from defenders. Hardman averaged a solid 9 yards per target last season. He caught 41 of 62 targets for 560 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. It was alarming that Hardman was less of a factor downfield, especially with Mahomes under center.
Will Hardman break out in his third season?
Hardman worked hard to continue developing this offseason as a route runner, which could result in more structured targets rather than manufactured touches. As a reminder, he was previously a cornerback that converted to wide receiver.
Mahomes had a passer rating of 116.3 when targeting Hardman last season. The Chiefs did not add any notable competition in free agency or the NFL Draft. This possibly implies that Kansas City head coach Andy Reid believes that Hardman is ready for more of a role as the definitive No. 3 receiver in the Chiefs’ offensive scheme. Last season, Reid was hesitant to provide him extra snaps. Many remember his costly mistakes in the Super Bowl loss on offense and special teams.
Mecole Hardman’s fantasy projection
We have Hardman projected for around 90 targets, 60 receptions, 750 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns. He is also projected to finish with around 8 rushing attempts for 60 yards.
Mecole Hardman’s ADP
Hardman is readily available beyond the 10th round of 12-team fantasy drafts when reviewing redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker (140). He is going slightly earlier in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Hardman has an ADP of 111.89. Meanwhile, his ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is 123.1.
Should you draft Hardman in 2021?
Hardman is an inexpensive way to get your fantasy football team exposure to the Chiefs’ pass-heavy offense. He is in a great position to break out in his third season and can be viewed as an upside WR4 in PPR formats.
