Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman was drafted by the Chiefs in a panic after they feared Tyreek Hill might get suspended for the entire 2019 season. When that didn’t happen, they were left with a redundant asset who was nowhere near as good as the original. With Hill gone, what can fantasy football managers expect from Hardman in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Mecole Hardman’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Despite being a former second-round pick, Hardman has yet to really establish himself as a key part of the offense. While he has improved each of his three years in the NFL, Hardman has been nothing more than a role player.
Hardman’s PPR fantasy points per game have increased each year he’s been in the league. It went from 7.1 to 8.0 to 8.3 last season. His 13.1% target share last season was a career-high.
At the same time, Hardman’s efficiency has dropped as his volume has increased. He averaged 20.7 yards per reception as a rookie. Last year, that number was just 11.7.
Entering 2022, Hardman’s fantasy outlook hinges on whether he sees his usage continue to grow. Can Hardman be more than what he’s been?
How the Chiefs’ depth chart impacts Mecole Hardman’s fantasy projection for the season
The biggest impact on Hardman’s fantasy outlook is the departure of Tyreek Hill. Over the course of his 48-game career, Hardman has only played five games without Hill. In those five games, he averaged 10.6 ppg, an increase of 2.8 over his career average with Hill in the lineup.
A deeper dive into that number reveals a minimal difference, though. Hardman averages just under one target per game more without Hill than with him, resulting in an increase of 0.13 receptions per game. The main difference is efficiency. Hardman averaged 54.2 receiving yards per game without Hill compared to 34.7 yards per game with him.
Tyreek Hill may be gone, but the Chiefs added multiple receiving options
It’s impossible to replace Hill. He’s a one-of-a-kind player. However, the Chiefs need pass catchers. In their attempt to fill the void, they signed JuJu Smith-Schuster away from the Steelers, Marquez Valdes-Scantling away from the Packers, and drafted Skyy Moore in the second round of the NFL draft.
Smith-Schuster and MVS are almost assuredly going to play ahead of Hardman. That puts Hardman in the WR3 role — a role he shared with Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson last season.
The most likely outcome for this offense is Patrick Mahomes spreads the ball around. Hardman will have his moments, but they will be sporadic and unpredictable.
I do expect Hardman to open the season as a starter in three-receiver sets ahead of Moore. Yet, Hardman hasn’t shown anything over his first three seasons to suggest he can stave off Moore for long.
Hardman’s ADP for 2022
Hardman’s ADP sits around WR60. He’s well inside the threshold of 72 wide receivers typically drafted in standard-sized 12-team leagues. Hardman probably warrants being drafted in your league. We are right around ADP on him, ranking Hardman as our consensus WR62.
Although he doesn’t cost much to acquire, I don’t have Hardman on my radar this season. I’m quite a bit lower on him, ranking him at WR76. You’re better off throwing darts at players with less of a track record and, thus, an unknown ceiling.
Hardman has three years of NFL production on his résumé. None of them showcased a fantasy-relevant player. Even with Hill gone, Hardman is still third on this depth chart — at best. That’s not even counting the true “WR1” Travis Kelce.
Mahomes is more than capable of supporting three fantasy-relevant pass catchers, but with no clear alpha, I’m not interested in anyone other than Kelce or JuJu.
