One of the many handcuff running backs in the NFL and fantasy football who finds themselves in a committee, New York Giants RB Matt Breida projects to be a late-round pick once again, as his 2022 outlook suggests he could struggle for reliable opportunities. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Breida’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
Matt Breida’s fantasy outlook for 2022
I would not advise drafting Breida if you need a Week 1 starter. Heck, he may never be at a level where he can be placed in your lineup. However, it’s not just about Breida but who he shares a backfield with that makes him rather interesting for fantasy in 2022.
Believe it or not, Breida has had a decent career. Over the first three seasons in San Francisco, he totaled 1,902 yards and six touchdowns on 381 carries, crossing the 620-yard threshold in both 2018 and 2019. Breida was even utilized in the passing game when injuries to the depth chart allowed him to see more snaps, averaging 30 targets a year. Yet, in recent years, Breida has bounced around to different clubs, playing with Miami in 2020 behind Myles Gaskin and with Buffalo in 2021 behind Devin Singletary.
This has always been his role. Never the bride, forever the bridesmaid. Yet, if given a shot, Breida was more than serviceable. In the 23 games where Breida has seen 10+ carries, he has averaged 14.8 opportunities for 81.7 yards with a 5.4 yards-per-rush average and 0.3 TDs per game. That’s around 10.5 PPR points a game.
Do you believe Saquon Barkley plays the entire season? How you answer this determines whether or not you should draft Breida, as he is the most likely direct backup. With that said, I would not advise going out of my way to draft Breida. That is unless you already have drafted Barkley, as Breida would be a necessary handcuff given Barkley’s injury history. But even then, how productive will Breida be for a likely sub-.500 Giants team?
Barring a significant injury to Barkley, Breida will struggle to see over 80 touches in 2021. That’s not enough to make him a must draft. But as we saw with Mike Davis in 2020 for the Carolina Panthers, it’s better to have the handcuff on your roster than potentially lose out on waivers and end up with nothing.
How the New York Giants’ depth chart impacts Matt Breida’s fantasy projection for the season
Barkley might be the biggest enigma of the 2022 fantasy football season. When healthy, he’s electric and could even be considered a top-three running back in the NFL based on talent. However, Barkley’s missed 41.8% of games in the last two years (18). The term “injury-prone” is tossed around with Barkley. But I don’t buy it.
In 2019, Barkley had his ankle stepped on in Week 5 against Dallas after a play was over, and it swelled up like a beach ball on the sidelines. That’s not on him. Then, in 2020, it was the ACL. These are not reoccurring hamstring or other soft-tissue injuries. Sometimes, guys just get unlucky. Barkley is unlucky, not injury-prone.
Who’s the RB2 in New York?
Without Devontae Booker, who saw 145 carries in 2021, the RB2 role is up for grabs. And if history is correct, we probably need to figure out the RB2 before it’s needed. Behind Barkley are Breida, Gary Brightwell, and UDFA Jashaun Corbin.
Brightwell was a rookie last year out of Arizona and had more tackles (eight) than rushes (one) or targets (one). Maybe it’s premature, but I feel I can write him off. For my money, the name for me to keep an eye on — if he makes the 53-man roster — is Corbin out of Florida State.
Yes, he is a UDFA, but Corbin is very talented and played behind one of the worst offensive lines in college. It’s the same one that plagued Cam Akers when he was with the Seminoles. Watch the highlight package from Corbin’s game against Notre Dame, where he busted an 89-yard touchdown. That’s the game-breaking upside he brings.
The former SEC Freshman of the Year, Corbin transferred to FSU, where as a senior, he totaled 887 yards (6.2 ypc) with 7 TDs along with 25 receptions for 144 yards and a score. While not someone to draft, he is a name to keep a close eye on when roster cuts are made. He’s already found the end zone in the preseason, so things are pointing in the right direction.
Breida’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 278, Breida is coming off the boards as the RB76 in PPR formats, placing him generally outside the range of draftable players in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Breida is higher as the RB70 and 205th overall ranked player, but that is the 17th round, and most drafts do not go that far. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
The only way Breida has value is if Barkley is injured. But even then, is he valuable? Handcuffs can be an asset so long as they have the talent to succeed. Think of Alexander Mattison and Kareem Hunt. But when a third-string-caliber RB is forced into a more prominent role, they usually disappoint and bait a manager to start them, thinking they have a sneaky value off the waiver wire.
It’s not like the Giants will be world beaters or have an offense that can plug and play running backs and get results similar to Cleveland last year with D’Ernest Johnson. For me, if it is Breida as the No. 2 behind Barkley, then it’s Barkley or nothing from a fantasy aspect. He’s really only valuable to whoever drafts Barkley for protection but more so in 14-team or deeper formats where the player pool thins out.
