Veteran wide receiver Marvin Jones signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency. Can Jones shed his boom-or-bust reputation with fantasy football managers this season in Jacksonville? Now on a new team, what are Jones’ fantasy outlook and ADP for 2021?
Marvin Jones’ fantasy outlook for 2021
Jones turned 31 in March and will be paid $9.2 million guaranteed and up to $14.5 million over two years. It will be difficult for him to exceed 1,000 receiving yards this season in head coach Urban Meyer and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell’s scheme.
Many expect Meyer’s offense to be an up-tempo and quarterback-friendly offensive scheme. Jones will be catching passes from Trevor Lawrence, who the Jaguars selected No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Lawrence is as NFL-ready as it gets and should hit the ground running in Jacksonville.
Meyer’s comments from earlier this year imply that the Jaguars will prioritize the running game. There will be a high number of rushing attempts from the shotgun and RPOs tied to inside or outside-zone runs. Additionally, play-action passing will be critical for Lawrence and Meyer in 2021.
Last season’s starting offensive line was kept together by Meyer. The continuity will help this unit in 2021. The Jaguars’ offensive line is stronger at center and guard than at tackle. If the quality of play doesn’t improve this season, then Lawrence should be concerned about pressure from the edge.
Jones will also find himself competing for targets with D.J. Chark and second-year receiver Laviska Shenault. Both of these young playmakers could command a combined 200+ targets. One positive is that Jones has been reasonably effective with the 6.3 targets he’s averaged in his 111 active games in his career.
Fantasy projection
It’s important to briefly examine Jones’ past before discussing his projection for 2021. The fifth-round pick from the 2012 NFL Draft has only had one 1,000-yard season in his career, but he’s been a solid receiver whenever he’s on the field.
In five seasons with the Detroit Lions, Jones has averaged 58 receptions, 859 receiving yards, and 7.2 touchdowns per season. He’s finished as a WR3+ in 74% of his active games in PPR formats. In three of the last four seasons, Jones has finished with 9 receiving touchdowns.
The veteran projects for around 85 targets, 50 receptions, 750 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns in 2021.
Marvin Jones’ ADP
Jones is available in the 12th round of fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker, where he has an ADP of 141.8. He has an ADP of 114.54 in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship. Similarly, his ADP in half-PPR formats on Sleeper is 125.2.
Jones’ ADP is unlikely to change this summer unless Chark or Shenault miss an extended amount of time with an injury.
Should you draft Jones in 2021?
Jones should be drafted in deeper formats as a WR5. The Jaguars’ offense has the potential to be run-heavy in 2021, and the veteran is already behind Chark and Shenault in the pecking order.