Atlanta Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota returns to a starting role for the first time since 2019. Mariota has been productive for fantasy football before, but he needs to maintain a starting role to help managers. What can fantasy managers expect from Mariota in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
Marcus Mariota’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Mariota’s peak fantasy value was heading into the 2017 season. In 2016, he had a stretch from Weeks 5-12, where he was the overall QB1. Entering his third season, he was widely expected to take another leap forward.
Instead, Mariota floundered. His fantasy points per game dropped from 17.9 in 2016 to just 15 in 2017. After an even further disappointing 2018, Mariota’s 2019 season ended abruptly after he was benched for Ryan Tannehill midway through the year.
Since that time, Mariota hasn’t started a single game. His lone extended action came in relief of an injured Derek Carr in the 2020 campaign. Mariota displayed his fantasy upside, scoring 26.8 fantasy points behind 88 rushing yards.
It’s taken him longer than he’d like, but Mariota now gets another chance to prove himself as a starter in Atlanta. As a starter, Mariota averaged over 20 rushing yards per game. I expect him to run even more this season as he pulls out all the stops to keep the starting job.
How the Falcons’ depth chart impacts Marcus Mariota’s fantasy projection for the season
Atlanta’s depth chart is much better than last season but still has several holes. Gone are Russell Gage and Calvin Ridley. Mariota does get Kyle Pitts with a year more of experience and rookie Drake London as his WR1. I expect Cordarrelle Patterson to be used more as a receiver this year as well.
Given the lack of depth behind Pitts and London, though, Mariota may have to improvise more than he’d like. That’s probably not good for the Falcons, but it can be great for fantasy. There’s a real chance Mariota averages over 40 rushing yards per game for as long as he remains the starter.
The Falcons trailed by 7 or more points for the 11th most plays last season. During that game script, they threw the ball 68% of the time. While Mariota’s passing rate won’t be that high because of his rushing, he will likely have the ball in his hands a considerable amount of time due to his team trailing. He has legitimate QB1 upside this season, albeit a low probability outcome.
The biggest concern with drafting Mariota is the potential for him to lose his job. Sadly, it doesn’t really matter how well he plays. If the Falcons are losing games, they will have little incentive not to at least see what rookie Desmond Ridder has to offer. As a result, fantasy managers who draft Mariota (likely in Superflex) need to be prepared to replace him at some point during the season.
Mariota’s ADP for 2022
Mariota’s ADP is well outside the top 12 quarterbacks. In fact, he’s not even being drafted inside the top 24. Outside of Superflex leagues, Mariota isn’t getting drafted.
I can definitely see a world where Mariota has fantasy value this season. As I mentioned above, he does have QB1 upside. That said, there’s no reason for anyone to draft Mariota in 1QB leagues. Even if you wait until the very last round on the position, there will be better options.
We have Mariota way down as our consensus QB25. Keep an eye on how Mariota performs early in the season. In the right matchups, he could be a quality streamer.
