Los Angeles Chargers record prediction 2022: Odds, props, and picks

The Los Angeles Chargers are a favorite in the AFC for the Super Bowl. What are the Chargers' odds and record prediction for the 2022 season?

The Los Angeles Chargers missed the playoffs in 2021 after a disappointing 1-3 finish to their season. They loaded up with big-name talent this offseason. Let’s examine the Chargers’ current record prediction, projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds to win the AFC West, AFC, and Super Bowl in 2023.

All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of Aug. 14 at 5:15 p.m. ET.

Los Angeles Chargers record prediction 2022

Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for each of the Chargers’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, Los Angeles is projected as favorites in 13 games, underdogs in one, and a push in three. If their season matches those predictions, the Chargers will have a 13-1-3 record following Week 18 of the 2022 campaign.

With that sort of game-by-game spread, the Chargers’ predictions are aggressive considering the strength of the AFC. This was a team that failed to beat the lowly Houston Texans last year in order to make the playoffs. Some of that was having a defense battered by injuries and a first-year head coach making mistakes.

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2022 should be better after the Chargers added star pass rusher Khalil Mack and cornerback J.C. Jackson. Year 3 of quarterback Justin Herbert is also a major point of development. LA went all-in while he’s still on his rookie contract.

Head coach Brandon Staley will have the spotlight on him with increased expectations. He’s the second-longest tenured head coach in the West behind Andy Reid now. But can he outwit and outlast his competition into the postseason?

Chargers odds, picks, and props

Now we know the sportsbooks’ predictions for the Chargers on a week-by-week basis. Let’s look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, conference, and the Super Bowl.

  • Chargers win total: 10 (over -140, under +120)
  • Chargers highest scoring team: +800
  • AFC West winner: +220
  • AFC winner: +750
  • Super Bowl winner: +1400

Only two AFC teams have stronger Super Bowl odds than the Chargers. One is their divisional rival — the Kansas City Chiefs –, and the other is the Buffalo Bills.

The Chargers have arguably the best overall roster in the NFL. Their depth has several points of concern, though. They also lack postseason experience compared to their peers.

With the 15th-most difficult strength of schedule but a tough set of six games in their division, the Chargers will be in a dogfight throughout the season. Their fifth-ranked offense from 2021 will need to repeat their high level of play. We can expect a sizable improvement from a defense that finished 29th in scoring thanks to depth issues in the front seven.

Free agent acquisitions Austin Johnson and Sebastian Joseph-Day were notable under-the-radar signings. Both are massive gap eaters who will allow the linebackers to feast. Hopefully, former first-round linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. will return off the PUP list soon to bolster their woeful run defense.

Chargers MVP odds and player props

Along with Super Bowl aspirations, the Chargers have a legitimate MVP candidate in Herbert. They could also bring home several other major awards, including Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year.

The Chargers have several high-impact, high-producing individuals who have the reputation needed to win an award. We also have several great Chargers prop bets listed below that are worth considering.

  • MVP
    Justin Herbert +1000
  • Defensive Player of the Year
    Joey Bosa +2000
  • Coach of the Year
    Brandon Staley +1400
  • Justin Hebert regular-season passing yards
    Over/Under 4,700.5 (-110)
  • Justin Herbert most passing yards
    +650
  • Keenan Allen regular-season receiving yards
    Over/Under 1,050.5 (-115)
  • Austin Ekeler regular-season total yards
    Over/Under 1,400.5 (-115)
  • Joey Bosa regular-season sacks
    Over/Under 12.75 (over +100, under -130)

The Chargers figure to have top contenders in several award races. If they win the AFC West, expect there to be a big push for Herbert to win MVP and Staley to win Coach of the Year. It’s very possible Herbert leads the league in passing yards along the way.

You’ll want action on each of those betting odds if you’re buying into this team.

The other key prop bets available for the offense include receiving totals for Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler’s rushing and total yardage. There’s more reason for concern with each of these. I have similar concerns for Joey Bosa’s prop bets as well.

Let’s dive into the best team and player picks below.

Chargers 2022 picks

The Chargers have an elite set of top-tier talent on both sides of the ball. If they stay healthy, they can win the Super Bowl this season. The only teams that can match their overall talent are the Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The question with the Chargers, as always, is their luck. This franchise has suffered some of the worst bouts of injury luck and experienced every bad loss imaginable over the last few decades. Their core four of talent — Herbert, Ekeler, Bosa, and James — combined to miss just four games in 2021.

If they can replicate that injury luck with their biggest stars, the Chargers are a decent bet in the AFC. Their lack of experience in the postseason is a major concern, but fighting through the West will prepare them. I’m willing to bet they’ll make the playoffs and win the division but will hedge going all-in on their fortune come January.

Their win line is a tough one to buy because they have only a few easier matchups all year. With the bad taste left in my mouth from their December failure, it’s possible this is a letdown candidate. Or they hit their 10 wins and can’t reach the over due to the division’s strength.

1u: Chargers AFC West winner (+220)
1u: Chargers make the playoffs (-200)
.5u: Chargers AFC Winner (+750)

Player props

The Chargers’ prop bets are a difficult set as well. Herbert’s are most interesting. He has the public’s support and can help his team reach new heights that will strengthen his case for MVP.

Averaging 292.2 yards per game throughout his first two seasons, he’s a decent bet to hit this high passing total. I don’t love that bet, as an injury or slight reduction in volume from the third-most pass-heavy offense puts us at risk of losing it. But because I like his case for MVP and his surrounding cast is strong, it makes sense to pair his props together.

Allen is the other strong over play amongst a plethora of offensive props. While Williams and Ekeler have massively concerning durability issues and high player props that I want no part of, Allen has been a model of consistency.

He’s reached at least 1,138 receiving yards and 70.9 receiving yards per game in four of the last five years. Allen would have hit those numbers had he not missed two games in 2020. Otherwise, he hasn’t suffered a significant injury since 2016.

Finally, the other key prop bet to play is on Bosa. Oddsmakers set his sack total at a career-high number of 12.75 this year. For as phenomenal as Bosa is, he’s averaged just under 10 sacks a year through six seasons. He has durability concerns, and the addition of Mack won’t suddenly lead to more sacks coming to Bosa.

.5u: Herbert wins MVP (+1000)
.5u:
Herbert leads NFL in passing yards (+650)
1u: Herbert over 4,700.5 passing yards (-110)
1u: Allen over 1,050.5 receiving yards (-115)
1u:
Bosa under 12.75 sacks (+100)

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