Every year, the NFL Draft injects a ton of new talent into the league. Naturally, this shakes up fantasy football values. With the Los Angeles Chargers spending a first-round selection on Omarion Hampton, what does this mean for the fantasy value of Najee Harris?
Fantasy Impact of Chargers Drafting Omarion Hampton
The Chargers were considered a likely landing spot for Hampton, especially if he got past Denver and Pittsburgh. Sure enough, Jim Harbaugh, who wants to run the ball, got himself a three-down back.
This is a great spot for Hampton offensively. The Chargers have a top offensive line, a top-10 QB, and a team that doesn’t face significantly negative game scripts often. As the lead back, Hampton has easy RB1 upside. Of course, he needs to see the volume.
Najee Harris
During free agency, the Chargers signed Najee Harris. It’s unclear how Harbaugh feels about veteran deference. Plus, Harris is also a former first-round pick. Despite the perception that he’s a plodder, I don’t think the Chargers see him as expendable. Harris is going to have a role.
As we’ve seen many times in the past, though, Hampton may make himself undeniable. If he is as talented as his production suggests, an early-season timeshare should give way to a starter/backup dynamic, but it would not be the least bit surprising if Harris opened the season as the starter, with the carries being shared pretty evenly.
The bigger problem for Harris is that there’s very little receiving upside. He saw just a 10.4% target share last season, and that projects to be even lower this season, as Hampton is a far more capable receiver.
In his final year at North Carolina, Hampton saw an 11.3% target share. He had 38 receptions in 13 games.
Hampton is not a satellite back. At 6’0″, 221 pounds, he has the size to be a three-down back. He is going to get early-down and between-the-tackles carries. But if one of these backs is going to play on passing downs, it’s very likely to be Hampton.
Harris went from a potential RB2 in fantasy to nothing more than a high-end handcuff. The handcuff value is strong, though. If Hampton were to get hurt, Harris would stand to inherit most of the work.
With that said, Hampton is the guy you want. Even if this is a pure timeshare early in the season, as we’ve seen in the past, talent wins out in the long run. Over the second half of the season — the more important part of the season — it should be Hampton in a feature role for a good offense.
